Economists Warn of Recession

[struggle4progress]

2. JPMorgan Raises Recession Risk to 60%

A global recession is more likely to happen than not this year, thanks to Wednesday's tariff broadside from the U.S.

That's the opinion of JPMorgan analysts who raised their forecast to 60% Thursday. That's up from 40% before President Trump's Wednesday afternoon announcements sent markets tumbling.

The administration's plans will likely amount to a 20 percentage point increase in U.S. tariff rates, the firm said. The last increase that large, in 1968, was followed by recession, economists led by Bruce Kasman said.

Analysts said retaliatory tariffs by other countries, weakening business sentiment in the U.S. and supply chain disruptions will make things worse. Jeep maker Stellantis has already halted production at its auto assembly factories in Mexico and Canada ...

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-tariffs-trade-war-stock-market-04-03-2025/card/jpmorgan-raises-recession-risk-to-60--clWSymXLSyvXZ7fPu6g6