GOP Polling Memo Finds Big Swing to Democrats

[localroger]

3. Yep, ever since Dobbs every single election held has swung about +6 D

...even when the D ultimately lost, they lost by 6 points less than would be typical in that venue. I think the R's are starting to wake up to the fact that this is something even gerrymandering can't overcome. In fact, gerrymandering can make it even worse for them because if you've traded a few districts large majority for a lot of districts small majority to get more representatives, that +6 D swing can wipe you out. This is why their efforts have moved to voter suppression and other tactics, but the problem is those +6 D voters are very highly motivated. If you never voted before and you signed up and showed up because of Dobbs, you're probably not going to let a long line or a bit of a drive stop you.