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In reply to the discussion: President Zelenskyy's statement on the situation in Bahkmut released this morning: [View all]Beastly Boy
(13,283 posts)At this time, infantry warfare supported by stationary artillery is the option that can be exercised on the ground. For the Russians, it involves heavy personnel losses. For Ukraine, defense of Bakhmut buys time. It is not necessarily driven by tactical concerns (other than the risk of complete encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut). I will estimate a full withdrawal from Bakhmut to take place at the end of the "rasputitsa", the muddy Ukrainian Spring which makes quick mobility-driven heavy armor warfare impossible. No later than the end of March. I would further guess that the withdrawal from Bakhmut will coincide with a major counter-offensive, most likely aimed at isolating Crimea from the rest of the land mass occupied by Russia. Whether the thrust of this counter-offensive comes in the direction of Melitopol, Berdyansk or Mariupol, or even Nova Kakhovka to Armyansk, remains to be seen. In the mean time, the heavy concentration of Russia's armored forces around Vuhledar, has been destroyed.
Apparently, the Ukrainian high command has determined that holding on to Bakhmut for three more weeks is worth the sacrifice.
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