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[muriel_volestrangler]

8. A general election in the next 2 years would need a substantial number of Tory MPs to vote for it

and at the moment, all but the safest of Tory seats are under threat, and they won't vote to lose their jobs.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

current prediction: Labour 507 seats, SNP 52, Con 48, LibDem 19 ... plus a few Northern Ireland seats (different parties, so not in that calculation).

John Major's government survived until the end of its term, despite being very unpopular - and it had lost its Commons majority by the end (but it could have survived confidence votes with right wing NI votes). Even if they change leaders again, the Tories don't have to hold a general election. They just have to work out what makes them look worse in the long run - clinging on to power, or giving it up by admitting they can't govern.