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In reply to the discussion: How does the Republican Party do so well by never talking about the "issues"? [View all]Beautiful Disaster
(667 posts)Emotion wins elections. It's why Trump won in 2016 and likely why he lost in 2020. When you get beyond the party lines, the 80% of the voting population who will support the Democrats and Republicans due to actual ideological issues, you're left with 20% of the voting population that is persuaded on emotion alone.
Republicans know that if you can sell fear or anger, you have a good shot at reaching a majority of that 20% needed to win an election. We saw it in Virginia last year and could see it again this November.
The thing is, it's always easier to create emotion when you're not in power. The upside to being a challenger is that you can tap into anger and prescribe it to a specific person or party - typically the party in power.
The flaw is believing Republicans are better at it than Democrats. We're only saying that because the Democrats are the party in power, forgetting that emotion helped Biden in 2020 and the Democrats in 2018.
It also helped Obama in 2008 and the party in 2006.
Conversely, fear is also something an incumbent party can use to success.
In 2002, Republicans grew their majority in the House and took back the Senate because they were successful at preying on the fear of terrorism a lot of the country was experiencing.
Incumbent presidents also can use fear successfully: if you don't reelect me, this and this will happen.
But the common denominator here is emotion.
What you believe is secondary to the mood of the country.
Republicans know their best bet to recapturing the House and Senate this November is by creating anger, either through the economy or social issues.
So that's what they're going to do. Unfortunately, it's hard to argue with emotion.
So Democrats need to find a way to make Americans fear Republican rule over the emotion the Republicans are going to attempt to get them to feel over Democratic rule.
Really, that's what this midterm is going to be: anger vs fear.
One thing to help neuter that anger would be gas prices and inflation dropping. That's feeding a lot of the anger Republicans are tapping into.
But I do think the Democrats are holding their own all things considered. If just might not be enough, unfortunately.
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