Did critical race theory really swing the Virginia election? VOX

[Quixote1818]

Attacks on CRT and school education on racial issues have gotten a lot of credit for Glenn Youngkin’s victory. A closer look at the evidence tells a more complicated story.

By Zack Beauchamp@[e-mail] Nov 4, 2021, 1:00pm EDT


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The critical race theory-focused analysis is convenient for both Republicans and Democrats. For the former, it’s proof that they’re on the winning side of America’s seemingly endless culture wars. For the latter, it’s more evidence that Republicans are the party of white backlash and anti-Blackness.

There’s one problem: The evidence for this conclusion is surprisingly weak.

It is true that exit polls showed education and critical race theory as important issues to Virginia voters. But exit polls, in addition to generally not being super reliable, are not a very good gauge of what actually swung races: Among other reasons, partisans who would have voted for their party anyway often parrot whatever message they heard from the campaign or allied media. And when you zoom out, the pattern of the night’s results is not consistent with a CRT-focused explanation.

More: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2021/11/4/22761168/virginia-governor-glenn-youngkin-critical-race-theory