Russian Economic Black Swans Are Coming - Econ Lessons

[TexasTowelie]

Last edited Tue Oct 21, 2025, 02:28 AM - Edit history (1)

Hi folks, my name is Mark. I’m a real economist — not in the sense of someone predicting next quarter’s GDP, but in the sense of studying what happens when predictions fail entirely.

In this video, I’m asking a question that matters far beyond Russia’s borders: What will be Russia’s next economic black swan?

A black swan is an event that defies expectations, reshapes the system, and only makes sense in hindsight. History is filled with them — the fall of the Soviet Union, the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic — all dismissed as improbable until they happened. Russia’s economy, today, stands at a similar point of fragility. It looks stable on paper: oil exports continue, inflation is managed, and the ruble hasn’t collapsed outright. But black swans never announce themselves.

Russia’s next economic shock could come from any direction:

A sudden drop in global oil prices, triggered by a fusion breakthrough or rapid decarbonization.

A technological displacement, as artificial intelligence undermines traditional energy-based economies.

A demographic collapse, reducing labor supply faster than state structures can adapt.

A currency or banking crisis may occur if isolation from global markets deepens beyond the state’s control.

Or even a climate catastrophe, such as melting permafrost destabilizing infrastructure across Siberia.

Each of these is low-probability — until it happens. And when it does, it won’t just affect Russia. It will reshape the global energy order, realign alliances, and accelerate new centers of economic power from Asia to the Arctic.

Black swans remind us that history moves in jumps, not curves. And the Russian economy, built on finite resources and fragile institutions, is one unexpected event away from transformation.

Because in economics, stability is often the illusion that precedes change.