Let's talk about new info on how Trump lost the Texas district.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about new information on how Trump lost the Texas district.

Recently, we talked about Democrat Taylor Rehmet winning Texas Senate District 9 in a landslide. The ruby red district went heavily for Trump in 2024 when he won by 17 points, but now it went about 14 points for Democrats. We've been talking about how Trump's policies are driving away the Latino vote and how that definitely played a factor in the District 9 election.

Now we have the hard numbers. VoteHub says it looks like Rehmet captured about 79% of the Hispanic vote across the district. Harris only got 53% in 2024. Precincts that are majority Hispanic swung toward the Democratic Party candidate by an average of 34 percentage points when compared to 2022. That's the last time the seat was up for grabs.

On top of that, a Texas Tribune analysis suggests in precincts that are 60% or more Hispanic, Rehmet won by an average margin of 59 percentage points. That's more than double what the Democratic Party's candidate got in 2022. Across the district, four out of five precincts shifted towards the Democrats. That's a big deal because it suggests the shift isn't limited to the Latino vote. In fact, the VoteHub analysis shows that when compared to 2024, Hispanic voters shifted toward Democrats by 25.8%, white voters shifted that way by 17.3%, Asian voters by 11.7, and Black voters by 5.2. It's worth noting that black voters in the district already went 82.2% for Democrats in 2024.

These numbers really throw the Republican gerrymander into question. A swing like this statewide would be absolutely devastating. Republicans leaned heavily on Latinos during the redistricting because exit polls showed Trump captured 55% of Texas's Latino vote in 2024. The recent signs say the GOP didn't keep that voting block. Can't imagine why. But even more troubling for Republicans is the other swings.

There is no indication in the data that the loss of Latino voters can be made up by other demographics. In fact, it kind of looks like the shift is primarily swing voters, not turnout or any other factors. It honestly looks like the Republican party managed to push away almost all of the swing voters in a year. It is worth remembering that a special election isn't necessarily predictive of the midterms, but this combined with other wins for the Democratic party suggests they're currently well positioned for the midterms that are less than 9 months away.

But Trump doesn't show any sign of trying to unwind the policies that are driving people away from the Republican party and the Republican party as a whole isn't doing anything visible to curtail Trump's damage. Basically, they don't want to do anything to stand up to him because it might draw his attention and he might blast them on social media. But if Trump doesn't see them try to stop his policies, voters won't either. Those voters seem to be holding the entire Republican party responsible for Trump's antics.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.