Lots More on the Big Problem With the Monthly Jobs Report - Odd Lots

[SouthBayDem]

Sep 5, 2025 Odd Lots
We've been in a strange labor market for a while now. The unemployment rate is still nice and low at 4.2%. But the pace of job creation has been slowing markedly. And furthermore, not only has the pace of job creation been slowing, it seems almost every monthly Non-Farm Payrolls number ends up getting revised lower. Of course, this comes at a time of some big transitions in the workforce — whether we're talking immigration changes, aging demographics, or AI. As such, just understanding the monthly data has never been more difficult. And because it's so difficult, it's also challenging to get a read-through from data to policy. On this episode we speak with Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX research and North America strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. In addition to talking about the state of the labor market, we also discuss the goings-on in bond markets, and why the stress is particularly acute in Europe.

Link to transcript

[LetMyPeopleVote]

1. MaddowBlog-The government shutdown leaves Americans in the dark about the latest job numbers

Without new employment data, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer tried to point to recent “momentum” in the job market. Reality told a different story.

On the woeful U.S. job market, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer keeps using that word, “momentum,” but I don’t think it means what she thinks it means. www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddo...

— Steve Benen (@stevebenen.com) 2025-10-03T20:40:40.032Z

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/government-shutdown-leaves-americans-dark-latest-job-numbers-rcna235502

On the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the BLS releases a closely watched employment report that is scrutinized by observers around the world. But on the third full day of the government shutdown, the bureau is closed, which, as The New York Times reported, means “close watchers of the economy were left rudderless.” From the article:

The agency’s measurements of wage growth, unemployment and job creation guide investors allocating capital and monetary policymakers deciding whether the economy needs a boost. Without the data, the outlook is foggy as hazards abound, so businesses could be even less willing to make decisions about the future.

The absence is itself problematic. The Times quoted one private-sector economist who explained in a note to clients, “In this environment, the risk of slower growth stems from reduced visibility into the economy in an already uncertain period, and less so from the shutdown itself.”....

Despite these facts, Trump’s labor secretary, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, appeared on Fox Business and boasted about the recent “momentum” in the domestic job market.

LORI CHAVEZ-DeREMER: We've been on a momentum of job gains.

BARTIROMO: You know the data though. We've had three months of slowing jobs.

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2025-10-03T12:45:48.936Z

......Even Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo, who’s not exactly known as a critic of the administration, felt the need to remind Chavez-DeRemer, “Well, I mean, you know the data, though. You know where we are. I mean, we’ve had three months of slowing jobs.”

The labor secretary replied that officials have “seen the numbers kind of hold steady.” In a way, I suppose that’s true. But when jobs data “holds steady” near zero, that’s not encouraging.