Message auto-removed

[Name removed]

[Demsrule86]

1. Right...have heard this before...and seen other polls where Sanders supporters are considering Biden

But Bernie won't quit anyway so that is wishful thinking on the part of some supporters of Warren...and if they think they get to the convention and nominate anyone but the individual winner of delegates (no ganging up) than we go down in flames in the general...rather doubt the supers who can vote during the second vote will permit that.

[George II]

2. I doubt that when it becomes a two-way race the two remaining will be Biden and Sanders.

[ritapria]

3. Economist/ YouGuv has been publshing Pro- Warren outliers for several months

Biden is still ahead of Warren by 6-7% ………….It is my guess , they are oversampling white, highly educated , affluent voters …………...

[Drunken Irishman]

5. The problem with 'two-person race' is it leaves out the dynamic of the race.

We're looking at a two-person race through the lens of no votes - or basically, zero momentum built out of votes.

If, say, Biden wins Iowa and Sanders wins New Hampshire, but then Biden ekes out a win in Nevada, dominates in South Carolina and cleans up a good amount of Super Tuesday states, the two-person narrative exists but it does so in the context of momentum. At that point, Biden would have firmly established himself as a very strong front-runner.

Let's just assume it breaks down that way. The race, after Super Tuesday, would potentially look like this:

Iowa - Biden
New Hampshire - Sanders
Nevada - Biden
South Carolina - Biden

SUPER TUESDAY:

Alabama - Biden
American Samoa - Biden
Arkansas - Biden
California - Warren
Colorado - Sanders
Democrats Abroad - Mixed
Maine - Warren
Massachusetts - Warren
Minnesota - Sanders
North Carolina - Biden
Oklahoma - Biden (maybe Warren)
Tennessee - Biden
Texas - O'Rourke or Biden
Utah - Sanders
Vermont - Sanders
Virginia - Biden

After Super Tuesday, Biden would have won potentially 11 caucuses or primaries. Sanders five and Warren three.

At that point, it's hard to see Biden not being the front-runner and well positioned to win the nomination.

CONVERSELY, it goes the same for Sanders/Warren. I am not saying this is how I see it going - but it if does go that way, that second option becomes muddled because it'll be in an entirely different dynamic.

Ultimately, I think if Biden wins Iowa, he will be very tough to stop. If he loses Iowa, unless it's very narrowly, he's done.

[TidalWave46]

6. The economist is big into including obvious outliers for one candidate.

It's not a solid operation. They also add many assumptions into their written pieces that completely ignore reality in order to make the point they want to make in the first place. Most people see how transparent they are.