Why "Civiqs" poll has Biden in fourth place in Iowa

[Bhphoto]

This pollster often partners with the Daily Kos, a website active in the promotion of the more liberal candidates, such as Warren and Sanders.

Joe Biden is very unpopular here.

Civiqs has a reason to pretend that Biden is sinking.
Note that no other pollster shows Biden this doing this badly in Iowa.

Biden's opponents intelligently refer to Civiqs as "Iowa State University", which sounds more prestigious and unbiased.

Civiqs is the pollster, not ISU

[Peacetrain]

1. Interesting... that they would use Iowa State University

as their name... I looked them up and they are in a number of places.. and that is how I found out they were an online poll..

[Celerity]

6. not all online polls are a priori poor, far from it

Good ones have a very controlled group, NOT a random poll where anyone could just click on something as many times as they want. I see so many people react (not saying you are in this case) in such a way that as soon as 'online' is mentioned they have visions of all the dodgy 'have-a-go', 'vote as often as you can clear your cache' (if even that is needed, lol) push-pull 'polls' like Drudge and other sites (of all sorts of ideological bents) do.

Also (and here I am not going to say they all are great, especially HarrisX) MANY of the dominant polls in terms of boosting Biden in the RCP poll average are online polls (Harvard/Harris (RW run and owned), and especially the Morning Consult and HarrisX, also RW run and owned). So is the completely legit A rated SurveyUSA that just had a great result for Biden.


Multiple well-rated, reputable polls are either all, or partially online.

[UncleNoel]

10. Biden leads +8.6 in these polls

The online polls you mention all have Biden up from 7-10 points in the Dem Primary National Polls..

Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: 30 21 18 6 6 Biden +9
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: 24 17 15 5 4 Biden +7
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: 32 22 17 5 7 Biden +10

[Celerity]

14. and?

I fail to see how that invalidates (if that is what you are attempting to do) a single point of my reply.

BTW, IF you (again, not saying you are) a big fan of HarrisX (by far the most consistently overall favourable national poll for Biden, where he has been up by 14 to 20 points for months), then the last result of theirs (and a key is that it is post debate, al the others were not or in the case of the last previous one only had 3 days out of 7 post debate and that showed a drop as well, albeit smaller) must be a wee bit disconcerting.

He is down to plus 8, a huge drop for Biden in a HarrisX poll. We shall see if that was a blip.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls







9 to 16 days ago, he was PLUS 18 to TWENTY



9 days ago plus 18




14 days ago plus 20





15 days ago plus 18




16 days ago plus 19

[empedocles]

2. Thank you newbie Bhphoto, welcome

[dalton99a]

3. Civiqs is a division of Kos Media

Behold, Civiqs—a division of Kos Media, separate from Daily Kos, with its own team but under the same corporate umbrella. And what does Civiqs offer? Exactly what we hoped for: the ability to scientifically track data EVERY SINGLE DAY on dozens of issues, candidates, and campaigns, so we can see how events affect public opinion in real time.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/12/1748087/-Announcing-Civiqs-the-coolest-thing-I-ve-helped-build-since-Daily-Kos

[ChiTownDenny]

8. Clearly it's unreliable.

[radical noodle]

9. I often get Civiqs polls

I can't stuff the ballot box (so to speak) it's a one-time vote. I also do YouGov polls. I think both are legitimate and although sometimes the questions are weird (odd subjects), they never seem biased one way or the other.

[still_one]

4. While any polling enterprise can have outliers, when evidence points to a biased

methodology and possible agenda, there are propaganda games getting played

[crazytown]

5. "the polls are what the polls are"

eom

[Celerity]

7. yet some have zero problems pushing RW run and owned polls simply because they are

good results for Biden. (HarrisX, owned by RW apologist and Trump lover Mark Penn, and run by RWer Scott Rasmussen) and Harvard-Harris poll, run and owned by Penn. Both are owned by Penn's umbrella firm, Stagwell Group.

[UncleNoel]

13. The followng are considered respectable polls

Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: 30 21 18 6 6 Biden +9
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: 24 17 15 5 4 Biden +7
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: 32 22 17 5 7 Biden +10

[Celerity]

16. agree, I have zero issues with those polls, but you also need to put in the A- rated Quinnipiac poll

It might be an outlier, we shall see. I do give you credit for not pushing the dodgy RW-run and RW-owned HarrisX, so, salut!

Atm, nationally I would say Biden has a 5 to 8 point overall lead on Warren, on balance. I need to see another week or so of multiple polls to call a true trend, post debate. I suspect Biden is pulling further ahead again.

[dsc]

11. they hate Buttigieg too

and they have him in 2nd and with his highest percent. So they may or may not be correct, but I don't think bias is the reason.

[jcgoldie]

12. Do we have to do this every time a poll comes out that doesn't show Joe Biden in the lead?

[Celerity]

15. yes!

Btw, I am NOT saying this is a truly valid poll (in terms of being an outlier.) I only take issue with some people's selective outrage and selective poll-pushing.

[bluewater]

18. the polls are what the polls are

[Bhphoto]

19. Did you mean "every time a poll shows Biden in fourth place?

You moved the goal post. I'm not coming Biden is necessarily in first place.

[ritapria]

17. Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos can't stand Bernie Sanders

I agree that Joe is doing better than 12% in Iowa ….I won't believe that he is at 12% in Iowa until that finding is confirmed by other polls …. The Daily Kos people love Elizabeth Warren and have no use for Joe Biden