Thursday advisories on Melissa

[nitpicked]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/230838.shtml

Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA CRAWLING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 74.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

[nitpicked]

1. And the NHC discussion (bolding mine)

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Melissa continues to struggle in strong westerly vertical wind
shear. Surface observations and Air Force aircraft data show that
the system is vertically tilted with the low-level center partially
exposed and located nearly 100 miles west of the mid-level center
that is apparent in satellite images. The wind field of the storm
also remains lopsided, with most of the strong winds confined to the
eastern half of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at
45 kt, but this is probably generous based on the aircraft data and
an ASCAT pass from last evening.

The storm has been crawling and moving erratically. In general,
Melissa is likely to inch northward during the next 36 to 48 hours
as the storm is influenced by a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
By late Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build eastward to
the north of the storm, and that pattern change should induce a slow
westward or west-northwestward motion over the weekend. By early
next week, that ridge is expected to move away as a large-scale
trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. This change in the steering
flow should cause Melissa to begin to gain more latitude again by
the end of the forecast period. Given the complex steering pattern
and continued model differences in the predicted vertical depth of
Melissa, there remains a significant spread in the deterministic
guidance and the ensemble solutions. One thing we feel confident
about is that Melissa is likely to move slowly and remain in the
vicinity of Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba for several days. The
NHC track forecast is shifted a little to the right of the previous
one, trending toward a blend of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble
mean and HCCA solution.

The current westerly vertical wind shear over Melissa is expected to
linger for about another day, and that should keep the storm at
around the same intensity during that time. However, after that,
the upper-level wind pattern will gradually become more conducive
while the system remains over the very warm waters of the central
and northwestern Caribbean Sea. These conditions should allow
Melissa to become vertically aligned and strengthen significantly.
In fact, rapid intensification appears likely this weekend and
early next week. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope from 12 to 72 hours, but leans toward the
upper end of the guidance at days 4 and 5. As Melissa intensifies,
its wind field is expected to grow and become more symmetric.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to meander over the central Caribbean Sea for
several days and is forecast to become a major hurricane by late
this weekend or early next week. Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba,
and the Dominican Republic are urged to continue monitoring the
latest forecasts.

2. Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged period of
strong winds, possibly lasting for a day or more, is increasing for
Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds
could begin in these areas on Friday and continue increasing over
the weekend.

3. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through the weekend,
bringing a risk of significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides.

[nitpicked]

2. 8 am edt update (heads up Jamaica)

Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 74.9W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
island, and has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Jamaica

[nitpicked]

3. 11 am edt update

Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA REORGANIZING AND EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SOON...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 74.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None
(snip)

[nitpicked]

4. 2 pm edt update

Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST COAST OF
HAITI, WITH HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 75.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southern peninsula
of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica
(snip)

[nitpicked]

5. 5 pm edt update

Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN INTENSITY...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None
(snip)