Economy

progree

(12,805 posts) Tue Mar 4, 2025, 11:04 AM Mar 2025

S&P 500 closed FRIDAY 2/6 at 6932, up 2.0% ## 3 bad jobs reports since Tuesday 🚨

This discussion thread is pinned.

Last edited Sun Feb 8, 2026, 02:06 AM - Edit history (245)

In the future I will only be doing these twice a week: Tuesday and Friday, unless it's really interesting.

10 Year TREASURY YIELD 4.21% on Feb 6, unchanged for the day. It was 4.27% on Feb 3. It was 4.19% on Friday 12/12 (It local-bottomed out at 3.95% 10/22/25, its lowest point since April.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX/
10 Year Treasury price: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZN%3DF/

Bitcoin: $69,395 @ 12:44 PM Feb 7. It was $75,512 @ 6:50 PM ET Feb 3. It was $84,009 @ 944pm ET Friday 1/30. It was $95,401 @ 533p ET 1/16/26, It recently exceeded at last it's end of year 2024 closing level ($93,429), but it's back below the waterline on that metric, , It's in bear market territory, down more than 20% from it's $126,000+ all-time high in October (20% down from $126,000 is $100,800) ACTUALLY, it's down 45% from $126,000 (Cryptocurrencies trade 24/7) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/

Next Fed rate decision: March 18 (last was January 28)
CME FedWatch tool (probabilities of various Fed interest rate moves) 1/30: 13% chance of a rate cut)
. . . https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

The S&P 500 closed FRIDAY February 6 at 6932, up 2.0% for the day,
and up 19.9% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 15.6% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 17.9% since the December 31, 2024 close
and up 1.3% Year-To-Date (since the December 31, 2025 close)
Down 0.1% for the week and up 0.2% since Tuesday
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC
(more below on the S&P 500 levels corresponding to the above, and also the Dow)

Market news of the day: https://finance.yahoo.com/

How to find the latest Yahoo Finance "stock market today" report if it's not at the finance.yahoo page (note that the headline displayed there does not include the "Stock Market Today" words, but the article itself does): click on
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com&oq=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com

If the link doesn't work for you,
Google: "stock market today" site:finance.yahoo.com

First I will briefly cover Wednesday and Thursday. Then on to Friday

Wednesday February 4

Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq fall for 2nd day as tech slides on AI worries with Google earnings ahead, Yahoo Finance, 2/4/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-sp-500-nasdaq-fall-for-2nd-day-as-tech-slides-on-ai-worries-with-google-earnings-ahead-210024017.html
((I excerpted only a small amount -progree))
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) slid about 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell over 1.5%, continuing their bruising from Tuesday's session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.4% as investors rotated away from tech stocks and into more blue-chip names.

Wall Street is failing to find its feet after AI disruption fears fueled a rush out of software stocks — spilling over into a deep global sell-off that hit Europe and Asia markets alike. Meanwhile, broader AI gloom has helped spur the rotation from high-profile tech names into value stocks, with megacaps taking the hit. Nvidia (NVDA) fell over 3%, while Google fell nearly 2% ahead of its earnings reveal. Amazon (AMZN) slid over 2%, and Tesla (TSLA) sank more than 3%.

In a sign of cracks in the labor market, an ADP report showed employers added just 22,000 jobs in January, versus the 45,000 expected ((more in the calendar section below. It's a non-government report from a payroll processing firm that processes about 20% of private sector payrolls, and estimates the other 80%--progree)) .

Big jobs report rescheduled for next Wednesday and also the JOLTS and CPI reports
https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3611524

--- SCROLLING DOWN THE PAGE, February 4 -----

Kevin Warsh's tenure as Fed governor shaped by inflation concerns, central bank credibility (he's Trump's nominee to be the next Fed chair)

Bitcoin sinks after Treasury Secretary Bessent says he can't tell banks to bail out crypto

--- Other articles February 4 -----

‘Get me out’: Traders dump software stocks as AI fears erupt, Bloomberg, 2/4/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/traders-dump-software-stocks-ai-115502147.html

All told, the S&P North American software index is on a three-week losing streak that pushed it to a 15% drop in January, its biggest monthly decline since October 2008.

(Lost 30% over 3 months: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/software-sector-loses-about-30-of-value-in-three-months-here-s-what-s-behind-the-sell-off/vi-AA1VFATX

Thursday February 5

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq sell-off builds as tech rout continues, bitcoin plunges, Yahoo Finance, 2/5/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-sell-off-builds-as-tech-rout-continues-bitcoin-plunges-210019775.html

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) moved roughly 1.2% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) shed 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) lost over 1.1%, or more than 500 points.

The market is in the midst of a full-on tech wipeout, as investors weigh whether some software stocks took too big a beating. The losses have been spurred by worries about AI disruption to established software players

Meanwhile, the labor market flashed fresh signals of weakness: Weekly jobless claims rose more than expected, and job openings sank to their lowest level since 2020 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-openings-sink-in-december-to-lowest-level-since-2020-151605057.html ) ((this is the JOLTS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, see Calendar below for more -progree)), while a new report found that last month marked the worst January for layoff announcements since 2009 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/last-month-was-the-worst-january-for-layoff-plans-since-2009-challenger-131244531.html )((This is the Challenger, Gray, and Christmas report -progree)). The government's monthly jobs report is due next Wednesday ((the big one that headlines the non-farm payroll employment numbers and the unemployment rate --progree)).

Elsewhere, silver (SI=F) plunged as much as 17%, erasing all of its two-day recovery as Chinese buyers dumped holdings.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) also plunged to its lowest level since 2024, wiping out all of the gains accumulated during President Trump's second term. The token broke below $63,000 — amid a crisis of confidence (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-falls-below-72-000-024105926.html )

--- SCROLLING DOWN THE PAGE, February 5 -----
. . .

Mortgage rates hold steady as they resist a higher Treasury yield

Yahoo Finance's Hal Bundrick and Laura Grace Tarpley note that the 10-year Treasury note, a pricing indicator for 30-year fixed mortgage rates, has hovered above 4.2% since mid-January. However, the spread between Treasurys and mortgage rates has narrowed recently, and the 30-year has resisted a substantial move higher.
Check out frequently asked questions about mortgage rates and our mortgage calculator here.

Several mortgage rates listed: 30 year fixed: 6.03%, 20 year fixed: 6.01%, 15-year fixed: 5.50%, 5/1 ARM: 6.23%, 7/1 ARM: 6.25%, 30-year VA: 5.57%, 15-year VA: 5.22%, 5/1 VA: 5.00%

Job openings sink in December to lowest level since 2020 ((JOLTS report -progree))

. . . showed there were 6.5 million jobs open at the end of December. Economists polled by Bloomberg had projected 7.25 million openings for the month.

Layoffs and discharges, at 1.8 million, increased slightly from 1.7 million a month earlier.

The hiring rate, meanwhile, improved slightly from a month prior, reaching 3.3%. The quits rate, often seen as a barometer of workers' confidence to jump from their current post to search for greener pastures, also remained at 2%.

US weekly jobless claims rise by more than expected

Jobless claims for the week ending Jan. 31 increased by 22,000 to 231,000 claims, exceeding economists' forecasts, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
. . Continuing claims, a proxy for the total number of people receiving state unemployment benefits, increased to 1.84 million.

Last month was the worst January for layoff plans since 2009: Challenger

Yahoo Finance's Emma Ockerman reports:

Layoff announcements ballooned in January, hitting the highest level for the month since 2009, according to a Thursday report from the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

"Generally, we see a high number of job cuts in the first quarter, but this is a high total for January," Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement. "It means most of these plans were set at the end of 2025, signaling employers are less-than-optimistic about the outlook for 2026."

Indeed, companies' hiring plans, at 5,306 in January, were the lowest for the month since Challenger began logging hiring plans in 2009.

Meanwhile, Challenger tracked 108,435 layoff announcements from US firms in January, more than double the 49,795 cuts announced the same month last year. It was the highest January total since 2009, when 241,749 layoff plans were reported.

MORE...

Friday Feb 6

Dow closes above 50,000 for the first time as stocks soar to cap volatile week, Yahoo Finance, 2/6/26
. . . https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-closes-above-50000-for-the-first-time-as-stocks-soar-to-cap-volatile-week-192439380.html

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) led the way higher, surging by about 2.5%, or more than 1,200 points, to climb ahead of the 50,000 level for the first time.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 2% in its best session since May of last year. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added about 2.1%, as the indexes bounced back from Thursday's sharp closing losses and a week's worth of selling pressure.

Wall Street is ending the week with a bounce back, as Big Tech CEOs and analysts brushed aside concerns about the impact of new AI tools on legacy tech. The Dow ended the week with a gain of 2.5%, but the benchmark S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed the week in the red. ((The S&P 500 was down 0.10% for the week -progree))

Some of tech's biggest names led the charge. Nvidia (NVDA) surged over 8%, while Broadcom (AVGO) and Tesla (TSLA) posted sizable gains. Some tech gloom persisted as Amazon's (AMZN) shares tumbled 7%. In its earnings, the major cloud provider outlined plans for a massive 2026 jump in spending to at least $200 billion, even as its forecast for operating income fell short.

The tentative risk-on tone extended beyond stocks, as bitcoin (BTC-USD) climbed steadily back to above $70,000, having touched a 16-month low overnight. But the biggest cryptocurrency is still down almost 20% year to date after wiping out all of its post-Trump election gains this week.

Stellantis (STLA) warned it will take a charge of over 22 billion euros ($26 billion) in a plan to scale back its EV push. Shares in the Jeep maker tanked over 20% on Wall Street and in Milan (STLAM.MI).

----- SCROLLING DOWN THE PAGE 2/6/26 ----

Dot-com era companies are getting revived by AI

Fiber company Corning (GLW), storage provider Western Digital (WDC), and networking hardware and telecomm equipment maker Cisco (CSCO) are just a few examples of companies whose stocks have ripped back to highs unseen since their dot-com era booms. . . The three were dot-com era stars that lost much of their value during the bubble's burst and failed to fully recover until the AI boom, as the massive data center build-out by cloud giants has fueled demand for their products.

Consumer sentiment hits highest level since August, but is down 11% from year ago
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-hits-highest-level-since-august-but-down-11-from-year-ago-as-inflation-job-worries-weigh-155341347.html
SOURCE: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
GRAPH, 10 years: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf
GRAPH, 50 years: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsh.pdf
It's definitely an uptick, but a very small uptick. It's at about the lowest point seen in the post-pandemic 2022 inflation peak, and definitely below the worst levels of the housing and dot-com crashes.

"While sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly increases have been small — well under the margin of error — and the overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical perspective. Concerns about the erosion of personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss continue to be widespread," University of Michigan surveys of consumers director Joanne Hsu said in the release.
. . .
Friday's reading from the University of Michigan also showed a divergence based on exposure to the stock market, though the report noted responses to this survey were collected prior to the onset of the software-led tech sell-off that started earlier this week.

"Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings," Hsu said.

Stellantis stock craters after taking $26 billion charge on EV push'

How much is Big Tech set to spend on AI in 2026? Approximately $650 billion.

================================

CALENDAR

Recent and Coming Up, Reports (I'm also keeping January 26 and later ones for now, I put the older ones in reply #1
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

See Reply #1 to this thread for reports prior to January 26

The government reports are all seasonally adjusted, as are most, if not all, of the non-government reports the media covers, so please don't post comments about how the numbers look good (or not as bad as expected) only because of Christmas season hires or Christmas shopping -- seasonal factors like that have been adjusted for

MONDAY JAN 26

# Durable-goods orders, NOVEMBER (delayed report)
Durable goods jump more than expected in November, 1/26/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/durable-goods-jump-more-than-expected-in-november/ar-AA1V0fWT

TUESDAY JAN 27

# Consumer confidence, Conference Board, January
Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy falls sharply in January to lowest level since 2014, AP, 1/27/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-confidence-u-economy-falls-151544532.html
below even the lowest level of the pandemic
DU LBN Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143606137
From the source: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/
For graphs, click above link, or the DU LBN thread link

WEDNESDAY JAN 28

# FOMC interest-rate decision and Powell press conference (2:00 P.M. and 2:30 P.M. ET respectively)
As expected, they kept the interest rate unchanged. There were 2 dissents, both wanting a rate reduction. I haven't looked or seen any jibber jabber about how many rate reductions are expected in 2026.

THURSDAY JAN 29

# Unemployment insurance claims
Week ending Jan 24 -1,000 to 209,000, 205,000 expected, (Not seasonally adjusted: 231,181)
Continuing Claims, week ending Jan 17: -38k to 1.827M
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-21ccf4e6ebbcabbc424e2feb56f0fee7
* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf . . . this release's permalink is at https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260129
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"

# U.S. trade deficit (delayed report) NOVEMBER
US trade deficit widens by the most in nearly 34 years in November, Reuters, 1/29/28
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-trade-deficit-widens-most-144236696.html
* DU LBN THREAD (also of Reuters article) https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143607655
The U.S. trade deficit widened by the most in nearly 34 years in November amid a surge in capital goods imports, likely driven by an artificial intelligence investment boom, which could prompt economists to trim their economic growth estimates for the fourth quarter.

The trade gap increased 94.6% to $56.8 billion, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau said on Thursday. The percentage change was the largest since March 1992. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the trade deficit would rise to $40.5 billion.
MORE ---
The deterioration in the trade deficit in November could temper economists' expectations that trade will deliver another large ⁠boost to gross domestic product in the fourth quarter.

Trade contributed to GDP growth in the second and third quarters of 2025.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting ⁠that GDP increased at a 5.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, though estimates from big Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, are running well below a 3.0% pace.

* The U.S. trade deficit isn’t actually falling due to tariffs. It’s still near a record high, MarketWatch 1/29/26
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fools-gold-the-u-s-trade-deficit-isnt-actually-falling-due-to-tariffs-its-still-near-a-record-high-17412f1b

The trade deficit fell a few months ago to a 16-year low, but it was fool’s gold. The U.S. is still running a trade gap near historically high levels.
In November, the deficit almost doubled to $56.8 billion from just $29.2 billion in October.
The October deficit was the lowest since 2009 and was almost entirely the result of disrupted trade patterns tied to higher U.S. tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
More...

The U.S. trade deficit totaled $839.5 billion through the first 11 months of 2025, compared with $806.5 billion in the same period in 2024.
For all of 20215, the U.S. is on track to post the second- or third-largest trade deficit ever.

# U.S. productivity (revised) Q3 (was 4.9% in the initial report)

# Wholesale inventories (delayed report) NOVEMBER

# Factory orders (delayed report) NOVEMBER

FRIDAY JAN 30

# PPI Producer price index (aka wholesale prices) (delayed report) DECEMBER

REGULAR PPI: DECEMBER: +0.5% (Oct: +0.1%, Nov: +0.2%), 12 months: +3.0%
CORE PPI (ex food, energy, trade services): DECEMBER: +0.4%, 12 months: +3.5%

LBN THREAD: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143608234
BLS SOURCE: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
a 0.7-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods were unchanged
2/3 of the broad-based December rise in prices for final demand services can be traced to a 1.7-percent jump in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.)

----- Data Series ----
PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
Core PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116 (wo food, energy, trade services)
The actual one month numbers (December over November) to 2-digit accuracy: PPI: +0.50%, Core PPI: +0.36%. When annualized, they are 6.0% and 4.4% respectively.
Below are the annualized numbers so they can be compared to the Fed's 2.0% target:

1 mo 3 mo 12 mo
6.0% 3.3% 3.0% PPI
4.4% 5.1% 3.5% CORE PPI = PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Fed Target

There is also a core PPI data series where core is defined as the PPI ex food and energy
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49104

I use the one that is PPI ex food, energy, and trade services because that is the one the BLS highlights (and did so in the pre-Trump past too, so it's not a conniving Krasnov thing). Trade services, which is the wholesaler's margin, is very volatile from month to month.

MONDAY FEB 02

# ISM manufacturing - January -

TUESDAY FEB 03

# ISM Services - January

WEDNESDAY FEB 04

# ADP employment (private sector workforce) - January. ADP processes payrolls for 20% of the private sector payroll employed, and estimates somehow the other 80%. It's a non-governmental report, so the report's timing is not subject to the government shutdown/startup schedule.

Private payrolls rose by just 22,000 in January, far short of expectations, ADP says, CNBC, 2/4/26
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143611175
The total was less than the downwardly revised 37,000 increase in December and below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 45,000.

The ultimate source: https://adpemploymentreport.com/

Seasonal adjustment turned a 2.171 Million job loss into a 22,000 gain - details: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143611175#post15

Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ADPMNUSNERNSA

Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ADPMNUSNERSA

THURSDAY FEB 05

# JOLTS - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey - December -

Job openings sink in December to lowest level since 2020
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-openings-sink-in-december-to-lowest-level-since-2020-151605057.html
. . . showed there were 6.5 million jobs open at the end of December. Economists polled by Bloomberg had projected 7.25 million openings for the month.

Layoffs and discharges, at 1.8 million, increased slightly from 1.7 million a month earlier.

The hiring rate, meanwhile, improved slightly from a month prior, reaching 3.3%. The quits rate, often seen as a barometer of workers' confidence to jump from their current post to search for greener pastures, also remained at 2%.

# Unemployment insurance claims
US weekly jobless claims rise by more than expected
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-sell-off-builds-as-tech-rout-continues-bitcoin-plunges-210019775.html
(and scroll way down)
Jobless claims for the week ending Jan. 31 increased by 22,000 to 231,000 claims, exceeding economists' forecasts, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Continuing claims, a proxy for the total number of people receiving state unemployment benefits, increased to 1.84 million.

More on continuing claims for the week ending January 24 was 1,844,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 8,000 from 1,827,000 to 1,819,000.
* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf . . . this release's permalink is at https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260205
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"

FRIDAY FEB 06

# Consumer sentiment (preliminary) - February
Consumer sentiment hits highest level since August, but is down 11% from year ago
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-hits-highest-level-since-august-but-down-11-from-year-ago-as-inflation-job-worries-weigh-155341347.html
SOURCE: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
GRAPH, 10 years: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf
GRAPH, 50 years: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsh.pdf
It's definitely an uptick, but a very small uptick. It's at about the lowest point seen in the post-pandemic 2022 inflation peak, and definitely below the worst levels of the housing bubble and dot-com crashes.
"While sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly increases have been small — well under the margin of error — and the overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical perspective. Concerns about the erosion of personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss continue to be widespread," University of Michigan surveys of consumers director Joanne Hsu said in the release.
. . .
Friday's reading from the University of Michigan also showed a divergence based on exposure to the stock market, though the report noted responses to this survey were collected prior to the onset of the software-led tech sell-off that started earlier this week.

"Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings," Hsu said.

MONDAY FEB 09

Nothing

TUESDAY FEB 10

# NFIB optimism index, January

# Employment Cost index, Q4 - Considered the best statistic on wages/salaries and benefits, and the Federal Reserve's favorite source on the same.
The ECI shows changes in wages and benefits in a manner that fixes the composition of the workforce. This is important, particularly when there are large changes in employment, because these data are not subject to the same distortions as the monthly average hourly earnings series, which can artificially be increased when low-wage workers lose their jobs and drop out of the sample (as happened in 2020) or artificially be decreased when these same workers are hired back (as happened in 2021) [1].

By fixing workforce composition, the ECI provides a more accurate picture of what is actually happening to wages.

[1] The Pandemic’s Effect on Measured Wage Growth, The WHite House, 4/19/21 ((Biden era))
. . . Original link now gone, thanks to Krasnov: https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2021/04/19/the-pandemics-effect-on-measured-wage-growth/
. . . The Archive.org link: https://web.archive.org/web/20220208080743/https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2021/04/19/the-pandemics-effect-on-measured-wage-growth/

# Import price index

# Retail sales - caution: not inflation-adjusted, so one gets a distorted view of increases in retail sales, when often most of that is simply due to price increases. It is seasonally adjusted.

WEDNESDAY FEB 11

# The big "First Friday" monthly BLS jobs report that produces the headline non-farm payroll jobs number and unemployment rate - January -- In December it was a tiny 50,000 gain and an unemployment rate of 4.4%.
Ultimate source of the latest release: https://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
. . This report will also include the annual benchmark revision to the non-farm payroll jobs numbers, in this case from April 1, 2025 through March 31, 2026. The preliminary revision we saw last September was a 911,000 downward revision for that 12-month period. Because these numbers were preliminary, the data time series https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth were not updated for those numbers. It is my understanding that they will be revised this time.

[] Lower Immigration Projections Mean Lower Breakeven Employment Growth Estimates, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 8/28/25
The old number: 150,000 jobs per month needed to keep the unemployment rate stable
The new number: 57,000 +/- 25,000 at a 90% confidence interval (think Heinz 57 varieties)
FFI: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143563268#post4

[] ACCURACY OF JOBS NUMBERS -- # Payroll jobs number sampling error: +/- 136,000 at 90% confidence = 55,800 at 50% confidence. And the unemployed numbers are +/- 300,000 (and +/- 0.2% for the unemployment rate).
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm
. . And, no Powell did not say the numbers are being fudged, but he did say they are significantly over-estimated (so the +/- 136,000 stuff above was applicable to a previous less volatile era) 12/10/25 -- https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220859756

THURSDAY FEB 12

# Unemployment insurance claims
* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf . . . this release's permalink is likely to be at https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260212
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"

# Existing home sales Jan.

FRIDAY FEB 12

# Consumer price index Jan.

. . .

The full calendar: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

Revised release dates for Bureau of Labor Statistics reports: https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm

BEA.GOV news release schedule (they produce reports on the GDP, Retail Sales, PCE Inflation (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge), and Personal Consumption and Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule

=============================================
The S&P 500 closed FRIDAY February 6 at 6932, up 2.0% for the day,
and up 19.9% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 15.6% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 17.9% since the December 31, 2024 close
and up 1.3% Year-To-Date (since the December 31, 2025 close)

S&P 500
# Election day close (11/5/24) 5783
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 5997
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 5882
# Trump II era low point (going all the way back to election day Nov5): 4983 on April 8
# 2025 year-end close (12/31/25): 6845
# October 28 all-time-high: 6890.90, surpassed by December 24's all-time high of 6932.00

# Several market indexes: https://finance.yahoo.com/
# S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
# S&P 500 futures: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES%3DF/

Bitcoin
Bitcoin ended 2024 at $93,429. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/
Bitcoin's all-time interday high: 126,198 on Oct. 6
Bitcoin's all-time closing high: 124,753 on Oct 6. (that's what Yahoo Finance shows, but cryptocurrencies trade 24/7)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/

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I'm not a fan of the DOW as it is a cherry-picked collection of just 30 stocks that are price-weighted, which is silly. It's as asinine as judging consumer price inflation by picking 30 blue chip consumer items, and weighting them according to their prices. But since there is an automatically updating embedded graphic, here it is. It takes several, like 6 hours, after the close for it to update, like about 10 PM EDT.
(If it still isn't updated, try right-clicking on it and opening in a new tab. #OR# click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/ ).

The Dow closed Thursday at 48,909, and it closed FRIDAY at 50,116, a rise of 2.5% (1207 points) for the day

https://finance.yahoo.com/
DOW: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/
. . . . . . https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/

DOW
# Election day close (11/5/24) 42,222
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 43,488
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 42,544
# 2025 year-end close (12/31/25): 48,063

DJIA means Dow Jones Industrials Average. It takes about 6 hours after the close to update, so check it after 10 PM EDT. Sometimes it takes a couple days (sigh)

I don't have an embeddable graph for the S&P 500, unfortunately, but to see its graph, click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

While I'm at it, I might as well show Oil and the Dollar:

Crude Oil

US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB)

If you see a tiny graphics square above and no graph, right click on the square and choose "load image". There should be a total of 3 graphs. And remember that it typically takes about 6 hours after the close before these graphs update.
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