January jobs report expected to show hiring slowed, unemployment rate held steady to start 2025

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Yahoo Finance
January jobs report expected to show hiring slowed, unemployment rate held steady to start 2025

Josh Schafer · Reporter
Thu, February 6, 2025 at 2:22 PM EST 3 min read

The January jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed to start 2025 while the unemployment rate was flat. ... The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly jobs report is slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Economists expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by 170,000 in January, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

In December, the US economy added 256,000 jobs, far above economists' expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% from 4.2% the month prior.

“Amidst all the tariff jitters, the January jobs report will likely send a comforting signal about the health of the economy at the start of the year," EY senior economist Lydia Boussour wrote in a note previewing the event. "We expect nonfarm payrolls to increase a solid 190,000 — above consensus expectations for a 170,000 gain but a step down from the robust pace of job creation reported in December.” ... Entering the release, investors don't see more than a 50% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates until its June meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

Here are the numbers Wall Street is expecting Friday, according to data from Bloomberg:

• Nonfarm payrolls: +170,000 vs. +256,000 previously

• Unemployment rate: 4.1% vs. 4.1% previously

• Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.3% previously

• Average hourly earnings, year over year: +3.8% vs. +3.9% previously

• Average weekly hours worked: 34.3 vs. 34.3 previously

Recent data has shown the labor market slowing but not rapidly deteriorating, as layoffs remain low. ... New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday showed 7.6 million jobs were open at the end of December, a decrease from the 8.15 million in November. This marked the largest sequential drop in openings since October 2023. ... But other signs of cooling within the report held steady. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed the hiring rate was flat at 3.4%. Meanwhile, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, was unchanged at 2%.

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[bucolic_frolic]

1. Private sector may keep going for a few months before government collapse impacts

My shopping trips indicate hoarding like the pandemic years. We have so much more experience at it than in 2020. But, some fluff items, non-nutritional like donuts are left on the shelves. Also, low price items are moving or gone already. I did see some very stale brats, i mean gray, consume by end of day, marked down, no sane person would buy them.

Also have noticed there are zero 11" notebooks in Wally's. Been that way for months. All they have are 15", 16", 17" in mid-price range. Meaning once again, consumers are bottom-fishing for some reason.