Argentina investors brace for financial pain no matter who wins presidency

[sl8]

Argentina investors brace for financial pain no matter who wins presidency

By Rodrigo Campos
November 16, 2023 1:34 AM EST Updated 4 hours ago

NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Global investors expect a large amount of financial pain out of Argentina no matter who voters pick on Sunday as their next president, with social unrest as top of mind as a much-needed fiscal adjustment will likely trigger even more inflation.

Economy minister Sergio Massa and populist outsider Javier Milei go head-to-head in the Nov. 19 presidential election run-off, a choice between sticking with the current Peronist government or a sharp swerve to a right-wing libertarian.

The winning candidate, who would take office on Dec. 10, would need to fix an economy with inflation of 143%, a messy array of capital controls, a looming recession and net foreign currency reserves JPMorgan pegs at minus $15.3 billion.

"There is no room left to muddle through with the current economic policy stance, and the incoming president will have to take a turn in economic policy," Barclays' Latam economist Pilar Tavella said in a Wednesday note.



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1. But the difference is akin to one between a pinprick - or a chainsaw (Milei's trademark campaign prop)

If elected, Milei would enact shock devaluation of 200% or more.

That would - as Argentine history has repeatedly shown - immediately translate to a wave of hyperinflation.

8% monthly rates (of which Argentines are no strangers to) would, as bad that is, be looked back on as "the good old days" - with monthly inflation skyrocketing to 55% or more according to a leaked prospectus from Milei's own campaign.

And the pain would be felt even before he takes office of December 10th - as businesses would, if Milei wins on Sunday, move quickly to dramatically mark up prices in anticipation of his "shock" measures.

But wait, there's more: said shock would be followed by sudden capital flight deregulation - which in a dollar-poor economy like Argentina's would almost certain lead to a "huge sucking sound" of hard currency out of the country.

Dollar insolvency would, of course, only further fan inflationary flames - as the peso quickly nosedives even further.

Collapse and riots would probably soon follow - with the neo-fascist Milei likely to order troops to fire on rioters (as many of his surrogates have already threatened to do).

So - who would benefit? The same ones who've benefited before in such crises: dollar-hoarding elites, who would now only enjoy purchasing power-on-steroids - but also the opportunity to buy bankrupt firms and many other distressed assets at fire-sale prices.

Not surprisingly, their ring-leader - Trump's pal Mauricio Macri - is managing Milei's campaign, and has done what he can (and luckily, he's an idiot) to try to corral otherwise-reluctant center-right voters to his fold.

That said - we'll see.

Argentine voters - like U.S. voters - often fall victim to wishful thinking. So it could go either way.

Thanks for finding this, Sl8. Makes one want to cry for Argentina.