New data reveals FEMA missed major flood risks at Camp Mystic

[douglas9]

More cabins and buildings at Camp Mystic — the tragic site of more than two dozen deaths in the Texas flood — were at risk of flooding than what the federal government had previously reported, according to new analysis from NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE and data scientists.

Maps by First Street, a climate risk modeling company in New York City, show at least 17 structures in the path of flood waters, compared to maps produced by FEMA, highlighting a longstanding risk facing many Americans. The analysis also shows at least four cabins for young campers were in an area designated by FEMA as an extreme flood hazard, where water moves at its highest velocity and depth.

For decades, FEMA's maps have failed to take rainfall and flash flooding into account, relying instead on data from coastal storm surges and large river flooding, even as climate change is supercharging rainfall intensity. Nationwide, First Street found more than twice as many Americans live in dangerous flood-prone areas than FEMA's maps suggest, leaving many homeowners and even local officials unaware of the risk.

"The unknown flood risk is bad from a preparation, financial standpoint, but there's a human element here that often gets overlooked," said Jeremy Porter, head of Climate Implications at First Street.

FEMA's maps can serve as critical warnings to the public about potential danger, but they are also one of the few ways the federal government can require people to take precautionary measures. FEMA requires homeowners in certain flood prone areas to build in ways that could help them withstand a flood, often by elevating their homes.

https://www.npr.org/2025/07/09/nx-s1-5460970/fema-texas-flooding-floodplain-camp-mystic

[riversedge]

1. Homebuilders, contractors--others would fight-dwaddle to keep prices Down in these areas-...

I believe many know of risks of flood areas but ignore or purposely HIDE this knowledge.

[bluedigger]

2. FEMA has always faced fierce push back on its flood risk maps.

Land developers and insurers fight vigorously over every inch.

[Jirel]

3. Conditions change too.

Maps are often wrong also because of changes in and around creeks and rivers. Our town was one that was hit in the flood. We know our flood map is wrong. We have flood insurance, by the way, and are across the street from a creek that flooded on the 4th.

How is it wrong? It’s quite overbroad, and it doesn’t take into account the mechanisms of flooding there and how it has changed over the years with cleaning debris out of the creek and river. There is a well known pattern and direction that these 2 bodies of water flood, which any local can describe. There are areas of much higher ground that even in another 500 year flood, or a 1000 year flood, on that map that aren’t going to flood because that’s not the direction the water moves. Danger is over-reported for one area of town, and even a bit under-reported for another.

FEMA can’t get it right everywhere. It just isn’t possible. But sometimes they should pay more attention not to developers, but to people who’ve lived in those flood plains and experienced the massive floods, when we tell them that the maps are based on the wrong assumptions about how flooding occurs.