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I'm watching football today in Texas
and seeing political ads! I don't watch a lot of TV, but today I'm watching. In the past 40 minutes that I've had the TV on I've seen one commercial each from Harris and Trump. I'm in the suburbs of Houston for reference.
This gives me some hope. If Texas were such a lock, why bother with extremely expensive TV commercials?? You'd think either side would avoid that. Perhaps Texas is more purple than I thought?