New F&M Poll, Shapiro, Fetterman ahead

[Deminpenn]

Haven't read the poll yet, just the top line, Shapiro up 10+ pts on Mastriano; Fetterman up 5 on Oz.

https://www.getrevue.co/profile/fandmpoll/issues/franklin-marshall-poll-release-october-2022-1425557

Details: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AButPnXfT0x_gyNiUR2cTM6adOklGa7y/view

[Botany]

1. Leadership

[Deminpenn]

2. This poll breaks down the state by regions

That's always what I find most interesting. Here Shapiro is getting 67% support in the "Allegheny" and "Southwest" regions. Fetterman is getting less, but still 57% is a good number.

The "Southwest" consists of Beaver, Cambria, Fayette, Greene, Indiana, Somerset, Washington and Westmoreland". Understanding that the overall results includes Allegheny County/Pittsburgh, it's a good sign since any R who wants a chance at winning really has to roll up margins in the SW outside of Allegheny county. If, as the Pgh Tribune-Review reports in a story today that "early voting" is at record levels in Westmoreland county, the largest of the SW red counties, that could be a good sign for Dems who are more likely to vote that way.


https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/889545244205798105-keyregions.pdf

[blue neen]

8. Where do you find the numbers for the different regions?

I'm having trouble finding that.

[FBaggins]

3. Not much to go on there

Tiny low-graded poll that began almost two weeks ago (when the RCP polling average was essentially identical to this) and which was completed prior to the debate.

Good to see yet another poll confirming a small lead... but doesn't really add anything new.

[Deminpenn]

4. LOL, no offense, but you are laughably uninformed

This poll has been done for years and is run by Terry Madonna, known in the state as "The Dean of Pennsylvania" politics.

But you go ahead and love yourself some 538, run by a fantasy baseball stats geek, and Real Clear Politics run by Republicans.

[FBaggins]

5. How ironic that you say "laughable"

If you're looking for another laugh - re: RCP

“Of all of the places measuring where races stand, they have proven to be the most accurate and reliable. It is really how I find out where the state is going"

Care to guess who said it?

Here's a hint. Some call him the dean of Pennsylvania politics... and he's been using it for decades.

But you go ahead and love yourself whoever posts the best results today.

As for the F&M - let's not forget that they had McGinty over Toomey by 12 points in their last poll for this seat (and Clinton over Trump in PA by 11 that same year). Both were obviously off by well beyond the MOE.

[Deminpenn]

6. No link?

Oh yeah, because that little excerpt is from a recent Washington Examiner opinion page column promoting the latest product offering from RCP.

[FBaggins]

7. Seriously? That's all you've got?

1 - I happened to find it on MSN, but who cares? The source of the quote isn't MSN or Washington Examiner... it's the guy you insisted was an authority on PA polling. Are you seriously claiming that a RW site invented a quote in the last week just to make you look foolish? Can we ignore Schumer's comments today if only Fox reports on them?

2 - I note that you had no response to their prior polling record. They were also off five points in the 2020 presidential election and nine points off in the 2018 gubernatorial race. This isn't Madonna's fault - they're using college students rather than experienced pollsters... but it is the fault of anyone who takes the poll as more authoritative than all the others recently reported.

3 - Where was your link? When I search for "dean of Pennsylvania politics", the most common hit happens to be the author of the piece you're now ignoring

4 - I can't teach you the 2nd-5th rules of holes until you learn the first one

[Deminpenn]

9. Let me say this again, the excerpt you posted was

to an opinion column written in the rw Washington Examiner. The column was by someone promoting a new product or service from RCP. It was an ad, albeit a long one. The comment from Madonna was clearly written as the same kind of fluff one see on book jackets saying how great the book is. Do you not understand that?

Madonna has been doing political research for decades before RCP was even established. He's been polling Pennsylvanians for decades, too. He doesn't need RCP to tell him where Pennsylvania stands. College students might ask the poll questions, but they are not designing the poll. In fact, if you read the poll archives, the poll is consistent in how it words questions.

In 2018, polling showed Tom Wolf winning by over 15 pts, no pollster believed that was possible, but it was. He won by 17.

The 2016 and 2020 polls failed to account for the irregular voters that Trump, and only Trump, was able to pull out of the woodwork. This failure was for pollsters across the board, except Trafalger whose methodology includes "shy" R voters which turned out to be true in both years.

FTR, Nate Silver at 538 isn't a pollster. He's a statistician who just transferred his fantasy baseball stat models over to polls. RCP has an opinion research arm, but they list no original research of their own "horserace" polls on their website. It's mostly a news aggregator website and opinion.