Michigan's State Legislative Exhaust Port
Hello folks, so I thought I would try again with Michigan’s state legislative races, since my previous thread went nowhere. After doing a bit of diving and researching publicly available databases, I found a small handful of legislative races that has heavy potent up ballot effects if enough donations to the candidates running in them. By this, I mean that supporting the campaigns running in the below areas will not only provide needed reverse coattails for the state’s U.S. senate race, but also provide crucial support towards flipping the MI-10 congressional district. Think of these races as the exhaust port to the Republican Death Star. Finally, I would also like to note that plenty of Republicans are aware of this phenomenon and are certainly providing enough volunteers, money, and surrogates to provide a full-fledged effort to get these races in their win column. Without further ado, here are the key races:
SD-12: This is the only State Senate race that is seen as remotely competitive, as well as the sole defense race on this list. This Trump-won district is currently being held by Kevin Hertel, who is running for re-election. As I previously noted, SD-12 is the most important defense race when it comes to maintaining control of the State Senate. However, I understand the general aversion of supporting defense races, especially those by incumbents, since they often have access to higher levels of funding, volunteers, and other resources that challengers often lack. Nevertheless, I have provided a link to Kevin Hertel’s campaign website for reference.
Kevin Hertel (incumbent): https://www.kevinhertelforsenate.com/
HD-62: This is perhaps the hardest of the three offense targets in the State House, as the Republican incumbent, Alicia St. Germaine, won by a 12-point margin in 2024. I didn’t find any obvious weak points, although her previous support for authoring a bill making banning public street and highway protests has gotten some heat.
Three Democrats are running for the right to face her in the general election: Phil Anosike, Craig Plesco, and Matthew Smith. However, I have not been able to find any up-to-date campaign websites for any of these three Democrats. The only thing that I was able to find was an outdated MCC Board of Trustees 2020 campaign website for Craig Plesco, and even that website was definitely on the bare bones side. Unless the nominee for this race quickly gets a campaign website, working donation pages, as well as a volunteer outreach apparatus, this particular race will be out of reach soon enough.
HD-58: This particular district, on the other hand, is on much easier ground than HD-62. In fact, I would even say that Katrina Manetta, the presumptive nominee, is actually favored to kick out the Republican incumbent, Ron Robinson, as he only managed to win by 6.8 points in 2024. Katrina Manetta certainly knows how to organize through her work in co-founding Maccomb Defenders Rising, and her platform is well-defined and carefully researched. It wouldn’t take much more support to flip HD-58, and the district is seen as a must-win area in order to regain control of the Michigan House of Representatives.
Katrina Manetta: https://katrinamanetta.com/
HD-55: This district is very close to being a lay-up, as Mark Tisdel, the Republican incumbent, only won by 7.4 points in 2024, and is facing a Democratic opponent that is very well-organized. The Democrat in question, Alex Hawkins, has flawlessly transitioned from utilizing the considerable support that was originally for a MI-10 campaign to set up a top-notch platform that has allowed him to attain presumptive nominee status for this district. I anticipate that only a small amount of further support will be needed for Alex Hawkins to flip this critical district.
Alex Hawkins: https://www.alexhawkins.org/
Anyway, I figured that donating to these races would be more effective than supporting U.S. Senate or House races, since Democratic candidates there have already raised millions of dollars and have more than enough exposure.