Toss-up Florida gets even tighter as Republicans narrow voter registration gap

[TexasTowelie]

TALLAHASSEE – Florida Democrats, already holding their narrowest lead in state history over Republicans in registered voters, have seen that edge shrink even further heading into the November election.

Final results from last week’s voter registration deadline show Democrats holding a wafer-thin 134,242-voter advantage over the GOP out of 14.4 million total voters, according to the Florida Department of State.

Democrats’ lead among voters – which has spanned the history of modern Florida – was 327,438 during the 2016 election but dropped to 183,596 by August of this year. Since then, up to the Oct. 6 voter registration deadline, Republican registrations cut almost 50,000 voters from that margin.

The deadline was originally Oct. 5. But Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis extended registrations into the next day when the state’s online system failed after being overloaded by Floridians looking to enroll.

Read more: https://www.news-journalonline.com/story/news/politics/state/2020/10/15/gap-between-democrats-and-republicans-now-smallest-florida-history/3668821001/
(Daytona Beach News-Journal)

[SWBTATTReg]

1. Another doom and gloom story about voter registrations and only registrations only, nothing about ..

actually voting and there was a recent poll out this a.m. that Biden holds a 7% advantage thus far in FL.

This is another 'registrations' are leaping ahead by republicans story. Enough.

Clearview Research poll of Florida: Joe Biden 47%, Donald Trump 40%
Strong turnout among Florida Democrats predictably would produce good news for Joe Biden on Election Day. And a new poll suggests even if Republicans slightly outperform Democrats getting their voters to polls, the former Vice President will comfortably win the Sunshine State’s 29 electoral votes.

A Clearview Research poll, shared exclusively to Florida Politics, shows Biden leading in Florida using three different turnout models.

The first survey results show 47% of likely voters plan to vote for Biden and just 40% favor Donald Trump. Another 2% will vote for another candidate and 9% remain undecided. But that’s based on a “neutral” turnout model, one predicting Republicans and Democrats will each make up an even 39% of voters who cast ballots this November. Clearview Research President Steve Vancore also wanted to know where things stand if one side or the other outperforms in terms of get-out-the-vote efforts. So he ran the model using Democrat- and Republican-friendly assumptions.

If Democrats make up 2% more of the electorate than Republicans, Biden’s lead grows to 48% to 39%. That’s no shock.

Read more: https://floridapolitics.com/archives/374582-poll-shows-even-under-optimal-gop-conditions-joe-biden-holds-the-lead-in-florida

[Jamesyu]

2. Party registration often doesn't tell how people are going to vote

For which candidate

[arlyellowdog]

3. Registration switch

Wasserman did note that many of these Republican registrations were 2016 Trump Democrats who reregistered as Republicans.

[farmbo]

4. Yet Dems are crushing it in Florida early voting (Guardian survey of Florida)

Requested means registered voters have mailed in an application or otherwise asked for a mail-in ballot to be sent to them.
14.07m registered voters
5.84m
1.83m Republicans
2.64m Democrats
1.37m Third/No party
Returned or accepted means a voter received a mail ballot and successfully returned it to the elections office to be counted.
14.07m
2.09m
623k Republicans
1.04m Democrats
425k Third/No party
Rejected means a ballot was not processed or counted because of a voter technical error. In some states, voters are notified and these ballots can be corrected.
No rejection data yet