Trump Has Served Up the Largest U.S. Tax Increase Since 1993
In 2025, President Donald Trump imposed the largest U.S. tax increase since 1993, measured as a share of GDP. It did not come through income brackets or payroll deductions. It came through tariffs raising the effective tariff rate to its highest level since 1946 and costing the average household about $1,000 last year alone. The modeled long-run economic drag approaches $200 billion annually. The tariff regime is structural. The costs are no longer theoretical.
In the aftermath of World War II, the United States began dismantling the high-tariff regime that had defined the interwar period. The 1947 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade marked the beginning of a multi-decade shift toward trade liberalization as a central pillar of American economic policy. Over the following decades, tariffs receded as a source of federal revenue and rarely shaped macroeconomic outcomes.
That posture has reversed.
As of early 2026, the average effective tariff rate on U.S. imports measured as duties collected relative to total import value after behavioral adjustments stands near 9.9 percent. The import-weighted applied rate reflecting statutory tariff schedules across products and trading partners is approximately 13.5 percent. By historical comparison, those levels are the highest observed in the postwar era.
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