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Goliath at the crossroads -- Excellent commentary
I'm including the complete piece from a local newspaper's commentary section with permission by the author.
Goliath at the crossroads
Pioneer American anthropologist Henry Lewis Morgan (1818-1881) wrote that societies developed (or evolved) through three distinct stages: savagery, barbarism and civilization. Cambridge University economist and geographer Luke Kemp utilizes a similar three-stage model in “Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse.” In this examination of the rise and fall of more than 400 societies over the past 5,000 years, Kemp rejects the term “civilization” as it implies moral superiority over the first two stages.
Kemp prefers the term “Goliaths,” noting that empires and kingdoms established in Mesoamerica (the Aztec and Maya), South America (the Inca), Africa (the Egyptian Empire), the near East (the ancient Chinese Empire) and Europe (the Roman Empire) were all established on the following: state over citizen, rich over poor, master over slave and men over women.
These societies were based on violence, warfare, conquest and, in some cases, human sacrifice. They were highly unequal, with a small, elite ruling class and a preponderance of poor laborers or slaves. For Kemp, the history of Goliaths “is best told as the story of organized crime” as one group creates “a monopoly on resources through the use of violence over a certain territory and population.” Former Goliaths often expanded via conquest, as many were militaristic societies. At its peak (about 100 A.D.), the Roman Empire had between 400,000 and 500,000 soldiers.
Power in Goliaths is often legitimized by religion. Consider the “divine right of kings” in medieval Europe. Derived from God, a king’s power and authority were considered absolute. As the king was God’s designated representative on Earth, he was only accountable to God. To rebel against the king, therefore, was to rebel against God. A very effective mechanism of social control.
Kemp wrote that the average lifetime of a Goliath state is 326 years, with the largest of these societies lasting, on average, only 155 years. English sociologist and social evolution theorist Herbert Spencer (1820-1903) wrote that the larger (in population) and more complex a society becomes, the more susceptible it is to internal disruptions, instability and collapse. (Consider what would happen if the internet in the U.S crashed for weeks or months.) According to Kemp, Goliaths “can be surprisingly fragile” (as Spencer noted), even though the threat and/or implementation of violence by the police, military and other government agencies is the bedrock of these societies. (The term Goliath is appropriate as the legendary and seemingly invincible behemoth was taken down by a boy with a slingshot.) According to Kemp, today’s highly interconnected and interdependent world is threatened by the “dark triad.” This deadly trio is comprised of narcissists (Trump), psychopaths (Putin) and Machiavellian manipulators (China’s Xi Jinping).
Kemp writes that the modern world is a single global system of capitalism dominated by the fossil fuel industry, big tech and military-industrial complexes that produce new ways of threatening humanity — especially climate change, artificial intelligence (AI) and nuclear war. (In his 1961 farewell address, President Eisenhower warned of a military-industrial complex as it could result in a dangerous abuse of power.) A self-described “communist” country, China is the world’s second-largest economy (as measured by GDP) and is an integral part of the global Goliath capitalist system as it trades with countries around the world.
The collapse of the “global Goliath,” Kemp notes, would be much worse than any previous such disasters for three reasons: First, collapses are typically accompanied by mass violence as the ruling class attempts to reassert its power and control. Long gone are the days when these weapons were knives and swords. Second, when past empires collapsed, people could go back to farming. Today, few individuals in modern industrial societies are agriculturalists and depend on the global economic infrastructure for their livelihood and survival. Finally, nine countries have a combined 12,331 nuclear weapons (The U.S. and Russia account for 87%of these bombs.) Along with global warming and the rise of artificial intelligence, nuclear war is an ongoing threat.
Kemp noted that “increasing wealth inequality consistently precedes collapse.” According to the Federal Reserve System, the total wealth of the richest one-tenth of 1 percent of U.S. households increased from $3.19 trillion in 1995 to $23.33 trillion in 2025. During that same period, the wealth of the bottom 50 percent of households increased from $1.02 trillion to $4.21 trillion. To put the latter numbers in perspective, the wealthiest five Americans are worth $1.38 trillion.
In his research, Kemp found that “the more strongly states subjugate women, the more likely they are to be both autocratic and prone to failure.” In September of this year, Secretary of Defense Pete Hesgeth reposted a video wherein several pastors stated that women should no longer be allowed to vote. Families should cast a single ballot, with that vote decided by the male head of household.
Kemp wrote that there are only two probable outcomes to the global Goliath economic system: complete destruction as the system collapses, or a fundamental transformation to democratic societies. Regarding the latter, he states: “This means governing societies through citizen assemblies and juries aided by digital technologies to enable direct democracy at large scales.”
Is a transformation from the current international Goliath to democratic rule possible? According to one estimate, no more than 45 percent of the world’s population lives in democracies. In the U.S., Trump is doing everything he can to dismantle democracy, to the cheers of his MAGA supporters.
Kemp noted that escaping a global economic collapse requires a more equitable distribution of wealth, “otherwise the rich find ways to rig the democratic system.” He suggests individual wealth be capped at $10 million. I would argue there is not the remotest chance this could occur in the U.S. (and many other countries) as proponents of limiting wealth would be denounced as subversive, godless communists.
For Kemp, “Even if you don’t have hope [that a global collapse can be averted], it really doesn’t matter. This is about defiance. It’s about doing the right thing, fighting for democracy … And even if we fail, at the very least, we didn’t contribute to the problem.”
Pioneer American anthropologist Henry Lewis Morgan (1818-1881) wrote that societies developed (or evolved) through three distinct stages: savagery, barbarism and civilization. Cambridge University economist and geographer Luke Kemp utilizes a similar three-stage model in “Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse.” In this examination of the rise and fall of more than 400 societies over the past 5,000 years, Kemp rejects the term “civilization” as it implies moral superiority over the first two stages.
Kemp prefers the term “Goliaths,” noting that empires and kingdoms established in Mesoamerica (the Aztec and Maya), South America (the Inca), Africa (the Egyptian Empire), the near East (the ancient Chinese Empire) and Europe (the Roman Empire) were all established on the following: state over citizen, rich over poor, master over slave and men over women.
These societies were based on violence, warfare, conquest and, in some cases, human sacrifice. They were highly unequal, with a small, elite ruling class and a preponderance of poor laborers or slaves. For Kemp, the history of Goliaths “is best told as the story of organized crime” as one group creates “a monopoly on resources through the use of violence over a certain territory and population.” Former Goliaths often expanded via conquest, as many were militaristic societies. At its peak (about 100 A.D.), the Roman Empire had between 400,000 and 500,000 soldiers.
Power in Goliaths is often legitimized by religion. Consider the “divine right of kings” in medieval Europe. Derived from God, a king’s power and authority were considered absolute. As the king was God’s designated representative on Earth, he was only accountable to God. To rebel against the king, therefore, was to rebel against God. A very effective mechanism of social control.
Kemp wrote that the average lifetime of a Goliath state is 326 years, with the largest of these societies lasting, on average, only 155 years. English sociologist and social evolution theorist Herbert Spencer (1820-1903) wrote that the larger (in population) and more complex a society becomes, the more susceptible it is to internal disruptions, instability and collapse. (Consider what would happen if the internet in the U.S crashed for weeks or months.) According to Kemp, Goliaths “can be surprisingly fragile” (as Spencer noted), even though the threat and/or implementation of violence by the police, military and other government agencies is the bedrock of these societies. (The term Goliath is appropriate as the legendary and seemingly invincible behemoth was taken down by a boy with a slingshot.) According to Kemp, today’s highly interconnected and interdependent world is threatened by the “dark triad.” This deadly trio is comprised of narcissists (Trump), psychopaths (Putin) and Machiavellian manipulators (China’s Xi Jinping).
Kemp writes that the modern world is a single global system of capitalism dominated by the fossil fuel industry, big tech and military-industrial complexes that produce new ways of threatening humanity — especially climate change, artificial intelligence (AI) and nuclear war. (In his 1961 farewell address, President Eisenhower warned of a military-industrial complex as it could result in a dangerous abuse of power.) A self-described “communist” country, China is the world’s second-largest economy (as measured by GDP) and is an integral part of the global Goliath capitalist system as it trades with countries around the world.
The collapse of the “global Goliath,” Kemp notes, would be much worse than any previous such disasters for three reasons: First, collapses are typically accompanied by mass violence as the ruling class attempts to reassert its power and control. Long gone are the days when these weapons were knives and swords. Second, when past empires collapsed, people could go back to farming. Today, few individuals in modern industrial societies are agriculturalists and depend on the global economic infrastructure for their livelihood and survival. Finally, nine countries have a combined 12,331 nuclear weapons (The U.S. and Russia account for 87%of these bombs.) Along with global warming and the rise of artificial intelligence, nuclear war is an ongoing threat.
Kemp noted that “increasing wealth inequality consistently precedes collapse.” According to the Federal Reserve System, the total wealth of the richest one-tenth of 1 percent of U.S. households increased from $3.19 trillion in 1995 to $23.33 trillion in 2025. During that same period, the wealth of the bottom 50 percent of households increased from $1.02 trillion to $4.21 trillion. To put the latter numbers in perspective, the wealthiest five Americans are worth $1.38 trillion.
In his research, Kemp found that “the more strongly states subjugate women, the more likely they are to be both autocratic and prone to failure.” In September of this year, Secretary of Defense Pete Hesgeth reposted a video wherein several pastors stated that women should no longer be allowed to vote. Families should cast a single ballot, with that vote decided by the male head of household.
Kemp wrote that there are only two probable outcomes to the global Goliath economic system: complete destruction as the system collapses, or a fundamental transformation to democratic societies. Regarding the latter, he states: “This means governing societies through citizen assemblies and juries aided by digital technologies to enable direct democracy at large scales.”
Is a transformation from the current international Goliath to democratic rule possible? According to one estimate, no more than 45 percent of the world’s population lives in democracies. In the U.S., Trump is doing everything he can to dismantle democracy, to the cheers of his MAGA supporters.
Kemp noted that escaping a global economic collapse requires a more equitable distribution of wealth, “otherwise the rich find ways to rig the democratic system.” He suggests individual wealth be capped at $10 million. I would argue there is not the remotest chance this could occur in the U.S. (and many other countries) as proponents of limiting wealth would be denounced as subversive, godless communists.
For Kemp, “Even if you don’t have hope [that a global collapse can be averted], it really doesn’t matter. This is about defiance. It’s about doing the right thing, fighting for democracy … And even if we fail, at the very least, we didn’t contribute to the problem.”
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