Big Beautiful Bill? It's Certainly Big - Blinder, WSJ
Youve got to hand it to Donald Trump. Leading Republicans to victories in the White House, Senate and House in 2024 was a notable achievement. But the margins were all slim, far from a mandate to promulgate the most radical package of economic and social policies in recent memory. Yet Mr. Trumps command over the Republican lemmings who now dominate both houses is so strong that he has managed to squeeze through one of the most unpopular bills ever passed by Congress. Characteristically, Mr. Trump has labeled the One Big Beautiful Bill Act the single most popular bill ever signed.
Back on Earth, the American public ranks the bill as one of the least popular ever, beating out even the original 2017 tax cuts and the 2008 bank bailout. Why so unpopular? Lets look at a few of the major items in the 870-pager. First, the law reprises parts of the regressive 2017 tax cuts that were scheduled to expire this yearwith a few added bells and whistles. This tax cut alone accounts for trillions of dollars of additional deficits over the 10-year budget windowunless you refuse to count it, as some Republicans tried to do.
Second, the law makes deep cuts in Medicaid and other popular social programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (aka food stamps) and the Affordable Care Act marketplaces. You may remember that the White House promised in March that the Trump Administration will not cut Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid benefits. Oh, well. They hope you forgot.
Third, some extremely unpopular programssuch as the gangster-like raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agentsare getting huge budget increases. You will soon be seeing even more masked men, armed for combat, using brutal force to apprehend and detain restaurant and hotel workers, farmhands, gardeners and day laborers who are scratching out livingsand often raising families and paying taxesin a country theyve called home for decades. The public may still support Mr. Trump on securing the border, but it doesnt like these cruel roundups.
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Many of the troublesome Medicaid cuts have been deferred until after the 2026 midterms. How many Americans know that? But as time passes and political attention turns to the midterms, Democrats will be reminding them incessantly. In addition, the larger budget deficits created by the new law will likely drive interest rates higher and the dollar lower. Few Americans will view either as good news.
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Mr. Blinder is a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton. He served as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, 1994-96.