Where climate change poses the most and least risk to American homeowners

[aggiesal]

Source: Washington Post (No Paywall)

Climate change may be coming for your house. Look up your level of risk.


Story by Michael J. Coren, with Naema Ahmed and Kevin Crowe
October 15, 2024 at 2:00 a.m.

CAPE CORAL, Fla. — In 2017, Angela and Donald Brudos moved to a modest, ranch-style house where the Caloosahatchee River empties into the vast calm of the Gulf of Mexico. Despite Florida’s reputation for extreme weather, it held out the promise of an affordable paradise where they could retire.

“We felt safe,” said Angela, “because neighbors told us it had never flooded.”

But even as the Brudoses’ home remained perfectly dry, climate change was beginning to reshape the housing market here — and in vulnerable places throughout America. By the time they settled in their new home, research suggests, flood risks were already making people less willing to pay top dollar for houses in waterfront neighborhoods such as theirs, eroding prices even as values marched upward in lower-risk neighborhoods.

As buyers and sellers wake up to risks on a hotter planet, Cape Coral might be a preview of what millions of homeowners throughout the country could face: a slow and almost imperceptible re-pricing of many people’s biggest asset.

. . .

Read more: https://wapo.st/48aMcdW

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Go into the article and enter your county to see how exposed you are.

Link has no Paywall.

[Solly Mack]

1. High climate risk here. Primarily for hurricanes.

Everything else, medium to low. Those damn hurricanes though, will only get worse and worse.

[aggiesal]

2. Nothing High or Very High, here in San Diego County ...

Overall we had Low risk
In the categories we had:
Low: Inland Flooding, Drought & Wildfire
Very Low: Coastal Flooding & Hurricane.

[Solly Mack]

5. A fire watch alert goes into effect tomorrow for my parish. Though the risk is low, wildfires are not unheard of here.

YAY, me!

We get what people here call "puddling". Enough flooding to be an irritation but the waterfowl love it.

[sdfernando]

9. Another San Diegan here!

[waterwatcher123]

3. This climate risk modeling scenario is not very helpful.

There are no climate havens anywhere in the world. Some places might be more exposed and at risk for hurricanes and sea level rise. But, climate change is such a complex problem that it impacts the entire planet. For instance, an unstable jet stream or the loss of the trade winds can have catastrophic effects on any place in the world. It can mean the difference between drought and deluge, agricultural losses, fires and long periods of smoke-filled un-breathable air. We need to lose the term climate refuge just like the term climate mitigation was used previously (again, to justify the status quo). We cannot move away from this problem and go on with life. No one would have imagined that a single storm event would dump 22 inches of rain on western North Carolina. The re-occurrence interval used by hydrologists and climate scientists uses past data to explain the likelihood of a future event. This concept is no longer tenable when statistically extreme events are of becoming the norm.

We need the equivalent of a Manhattan style project to focus on a myriad of actions to address climate change. Climate change has always been a challenge to address because it is supposedly something that can be put off. Well, the future is here and even the best efforts to date are woefully inadequate in the face of this planetary crisis.

[Cirsium]

4. It is a global phenomenon

It is a global phenomenon. Everyone will be and is being affected.

From white flight to suburban sprawl, the urge to run away from problems., encouraged by those who profit from exploiting people's fears, is a big contributor to the problems we are now facing as a global community.

"Reshape the housing market." The article is not really about the climate crisis, it is about the real estate and development industries.

[Grokenstein]

6. My county is still pretty chill most of the time, so my personal concern

is getting priced out of the market when everyone else starts moving here.

[chowder66]

7. I find it odd that they don't include tornadoes.

[LeftInTX]

8. It gave Bexar County medium risk for hurricanes, but we've only gotten tropical storms here.

Maybe 100 years ago a cat 1 landed here. Our tropical storms are not "high risk" type of events. Yes, there are spin off tornados and high winds, but for the most part, if you stay home and secure stuff in your yard, you are fine.

It gave us high for heat - yes
Gave us only medium for drought - no - we are high.
(Both are high-very high risks here)

Hurricanes are a low risk-very low risk here. We are prone flash floods, but once again, if you don't build in a flood zone and don't drive into the water, you should be OK. It's hilly here, so flash floods drain fairly quickly.

[aggiesal]

14. But with Climate Change, could that change the risk from low to High or Very High? ...

I ask because Milton started from a different location than normal and hit a spot that never had a direct hit, yet this time it did.

[LeftInTX]

17. No. We're too far west of the water here. We're also at almost 1,000 ft elevation .

Hurricanes need water.

There was one supposedly in the 19th Century that came here. But they do get killed here. We always want to get them..LOL But they prefer to stay east. They're just isn't hurricane fuel over a parched landscape. Even Harvey avoided Bexar County. It stopped one county east of here as a tropical storm, then went to Houston.

Also, anywhere in Florida is always at risk. Tampa area had a "lucky streak", but they have always been at risk. There is nothing in Tampa's climate that repels hurricanes. Bexar County's climate is destructive to hurricanes.

[aggiesal]

19. I understand what you're saying, but North & South Carolina were miles away from water, ...

in the mountains & both got inundated with rain that took out roads, bridges and houses.

[LeftInTX]

20. They are over the gulf. (north of the gulf) We are west of the the gulf. Moisture flows north and east

That's why the midwest gets clobbered with gulf moisture. We have a phenomenon called sinking air here. The Sierra Madres to the west also are a factor. The Chihuahua desert is also a factor. Most of our rain comes from the Pacific ocean.

[aggiesal]

22. My brother lives in San Antonio and he tells us all the time ...

that they get flooded with water from hurricanes that come up from Houston

[LeftInTX]

23. No! That's not true at all.

Show me a hurricane that came from Houston and I will give you $$$$$$$$$$$

Hurricanes don't "come from Houston to San Antonio"

Houston is on land.

Do you know how weather works??????

We didn't get a drop of rain from Beryl.

We got some rain from Tropical Storm Harold in 2023, but that one sure didn't "come from Houston".

The most recent hurricane that came near SA was Harvey, but we didn't get any rain from it. Now that thing up and went to Houston, but it certainly "didn't come from Houston". Harvey might have gone to the Seguin area, but I didn't get any rain at my house. It was supposed to be a big storm here, but Harvey died out, then it went back out over water, re-strengthened and then it went to Houston where it rained and rained for days. Harvey also did not "come from Houston". It came from Port Aransas and quickly became a tropical storm.

Quit telling me about the weather where I live. I've lived here for 45 years.

You can water my lawn for me. It hasn't rained here in two months!

My trees are all dying from three years of drought.

Does your brother never complain about the aquifer? We have some of the strictest in water restrictions in the United States.

[sakabatou]

10. Risk in my area is fire

[Martin68]

11. The title is misleading. It is entirely focused on the State of Florida, and mentions nowhere else.

The title should read "Where climate change poses the most and least risk to homeowners IN FLORIDA." Notice I left out the word "American," because it is both misleading and irrelevant.

[FakeNoose]

12. Type in the name of your County - anywhere in the USA

You get results of the name you typed in. Example:



I actually disagree with this report because in Allegheny County Pennsylvania there's very little risk of homes getting flooded. Very few people build homes (not even summer cabins) on our rivers, and nobody lives downtown at the Point. If you live on Neville Island, yeah you might get flooded once every 5 years or so.

But this article does list results of every County in the US where statistics are available. The text is written for residents of Florida because that fits the recent stories about the hurricanes and flooding.

[Martin68]

18. Doesn't include where I live, Albemarle County, Virginia.

Musts be pretty safe.

[aggiesal]

15. You have to enter the County you live in to get anything other than Florida n/t

[LauraInLA]

13. First Street does what I'd consider better risk assessment, and you can see changes over time.

I know the Washington Post did articles using their tools for fire risk and I think flood, as well.

[LibinMo]

16. Thanks for the link

My WA Post subscription expired 2 days ago. If I renew it will be after the election. We are in a drought here in my corner of Missouri.

[pfitz59]

21. My County has a Very Low risk

One reason I moved here.

[NickB79]

24. Dakota County Minnesota: very low risk

Good. I'm staying here the rest of my life. Might buy some hunting land in northern Minnesota for my retirement in 20 yr.

[Kaleva]

25. Risks mostly very low for my county. A few low risks

[Metaphorical]

26. In King Co. WA Very Low Risk, except Inland Flooding

We had a house that we rented flood out after heavy rains and a downed tree caused the local creek to back up. The landladies finally decided to sell the house, forcing us to move. The PNW is actually likely to get cooler and wetter with climate change, but that also makes us more vulnerable to storms and the inevitable downed trees.

[Deep State Witch]

27. Up Until A Couple of Weeks Ago

Western North Carolina was considered to be a "climate change haven." Ooops.

[Kaleva]

28. Not everybody thought so

One can go back a few years and find warnings about floodings for that region

On page 66 and 67 of The North Carolina Climate Science Report revised in 2020, it states that there is expected to be a 100% increase in the number of days where there is 3 or more inches of rainfall in the western region of North Carolina.