U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive's key goal

[former9thward]

Source: Washington Post

The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won’t fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea in this year’s push.

The grim assessment is based on Russia’s brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.

Ukraine’s forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

Melitopol is critical to Ukraine’s counteroffensive because it is considered the gateway to Crimea. The city is at the intersection of two important highways and a railroad line that allow Russia to move military personnel and equipment from the peninsula to other occupied territories in southern Ukraine.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/

[wnylib]

1. Sorry to hear that, but given Ukrainian determination and skill,

my response is, "Not yet." But, it will happen. They will succeed.

[PortTack]

5. This is the only attitude to have.

It’s war..not a video game. They are training and learning from each mission.

Plus, part of the blame is ours for being slow giving them the military hardware they need. While Ukraine was waiting…8+ months on the west to supply much needed armaments, russia was laying mine fields, digging trenches and putting up barriers.

[Lonestarblue]

2. I hope they're wrong.

We need to give Ukraine what they need to win this war. I don’t understand why we’re holding back key weapons when they are fighting for their very existence. The US would never go ro war without air power. Why do we expect Ukraine to do that?

[Igel]

11. Brainstorm without reservation and you'll get lots of possible answers.

None may be right, but one or more might be close.

Problem is that they're all ruled out a priori.

[OAITW r.2.0]

3. Then give Ukraine some more US war tech now.

We need to destroy Putin now, for the Russia people and the world.

[ananda]

6. +1000

...

[LiberalArkie]

4. A couple of A-10's would be nice, or a high altitude B-52

[OAITW r.2.0]

9. A-10's were meant for this type of conflict.

Given the advanced tech we've learned since the A-10 first took flight....it could be a more lethal HD warplane now, in Ukraine, IMHO.

[Happy Hoosier]

20. They are not viable without air superiority, which Ukrainians do not have.

The effectiveness of the A-10 depends upon control of the skies, and signficant suppression of enemy air defenses. And they are very vlnerable to modern MANPADS.

Simply put, their day has passed. It's not 1990 anymore.

Most of their mission is now performed using stand-off PGMs (prrecision guided munitions) to avoid exposure to MANPADS at low altitude. And drones will do this job more and more frequently for the same reason.

[BootinUp]

7. Screw the un-named. Nt

[unc70]

8. I believed this US assessment is defeatist

Part of this is that the Ukrainians are not doing things the American way. The main reason for that is that they lack the air superiority the US military depends on.

Another point is that the analysts consider that being several miles outside Melitopol is a failure. If the Ukrainians are that close to the city and to the coast, the Russians in Crimea and in Kherson Oblast will be cut off from all prospects for resupply.

Within the past two weeks, UKR has severed most of the Russian supply routes north from Crimea into Kherson and have taken out the main railway just west of Melitopol

I have a lot of confidence in Ukrainians.

[BootinUp]

12. +1

[NickB79]

14. Exactly. A few miles outside the city is in artillery range

Hell, that's in tank cannon range. And WELL inside HIMARS range.

Even without Ukrainian boots at the city center, the Russians won't be able to use the city as a logistics hub.

[machoneman]

19. Yes, my thoughts too. Well within striking range of a host of UK weapons. Stopping the flow...

...of rail/road traffic is the real goal as occupying a city itself means little in this war.

[PortTack]

16. Same

Their main goal right now is to split the front into two- north to south around the area of Mellitopol with a wide swath in between, down to the Sea of Azov.

If they can do this, and completely stop the flow of russian resupply via the Kersch bridge up thru Crimea, then Crimea is no longer an asset, rather an island they can’t possibly defend. All resupply for the western front would then have to come via the Black Sea which isn’t possible. They are currently making territorial gains in that area, althou it’s slower than they would like.

This is just so smart! My trust and faith is with Ukraine!!

Slava Ukraine!!!!!

[tornado34jh]

10. Do they really think this was going to be a quick offensive?

It's a slow grind. Sometimes it is not about fast and quick offensives. The counteroffensive last year took Russia by surprise, but this time they were better prepared. Russia is not going to go away that easily. But really, if they really are worried about that, call Russia's bluff, send fighter planes in. Russia had plenty of time to set up minefields and trenches. It's a war of attrition. Ukraine needs all the help it can get.

[ImNotGod]

13. Gee, so Ukraine is taking on a fascist superpower, an enemy of the west, all by themselves

and all the US can do is whine about its prospects? Its time for the US to put on their big boy pants and kick little putinini where it hurts. We need to get involved militarily to protect a friend & democracy. At the very least a no fly zone in & around Ukraine. Why else are we spending trillions a year on the finest military in the World? If pootie wants to start WWIII we will finish it. We will have to contend with evil russia sooner or later anyway.

[quakerboy]

17. Not just one

They are receiving support from NK, Iran, and I dont see much reason to think they aren't getting support from China.

[EndlessWire]

15. They took out the bridges

and forced the supplies to go the long way around. That was significant. They are pounding Crimea. This report overlooks different pathways they are succeeding with, and doesn't mention that they may well subdue Crimea long before they take Melitopol.

I think it's odd that they say government officials spoke anonymously when I can get the same information from various reporters I follow. Ukraine is not losing the war. Filter all the news on your own.

If they want to say Ukraine needs more help, I'm all for it. The F16 training and ships to fly will really change things. Things take time. It was never going to be a quick victory (unlike what Putin thought.)

[Layzeebeaver]

18. several miles should not be considered an issue

that would put UKR HIMARS and other assault vectors in a position to interdict a wide swath of Russian supply chain and logistics. Getting that close is likely good enough.

"Taking the city" is a political and tacit comms move - it's unnecessary. The political folks want to say "Look! we captured the city!", while the military says. "Forget the city, what about enemy logistics?".

Frankly, letting the Russians continue to reinforce it whilst under the eyes of Ukrainian artillery is a better option. shell the shit out of them every single day.

Bottom line: You don't need to occupy a city to interdict logistics going through it.

EDIT: Lets also keep in mind that this type of communication "off the record" is more than likely a "Change Management" effort to try and recalibrate expectations in the press.

[flamingdem]

21. Does the USA want Ukraine to take back Crimea?

Maybe not?

[former9thward]

22. I doubt it.

When Crimea was taken in 2014 the U.S. did nothing but some lukewarm sanctions. I think the U.S. believes Crimea is 1) a historical part of Russia which is populated by Russian speakers and sympathizers and 2) it is unrealistic that Ukraine can militarily re-take it.

[Bayard]

23. "Spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations,"

So, what the hell are these people doing, trying to destroy Ukrainian morale? They definitely have no business blathering about, "sensitive military operations."

Take your invisibility cloak away, and keep your mouths shut if you can't say something useful.

[Martin68]

24. Two questions: 1) how do they know? That's what they said about resisting the initial invasion and

2) even if they think that's true, doesn't it just serve to undermine Ukrainian morale and Western support?

[Kaleva]

25. Article explains that UKR switched tactics in order to save lives

Instead of suffering high casualties breaking through RU lines, they are instead making incremental advance while minimizing casualties.

Article also says Russian military is taking a beating

"Joint war games conducted by the U.S., British and Ukrainian militaries anticipated such losses but envisioned Kyiv accepting the casualties as the cost of piercing through Russia’s main defensive line, said U.S. and Western officials.

But Ukraine chose to stem the losses on the battlefield and switch to a tactic of relying on smaller units to push forward across different areas of the front. That resulted in Ukraine making incremental gains in different pockets over the summer."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/