Jobs report: US economy adds 236,000 jobs in March, unemployment rate falls to 3.5%

[BumRushDaShow]

Last edited Fri Apr 7, 2023, 09:55 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: Yahoo! Finance

The March jobs report showed the U.S. labor market remains strong, likely keeping the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in its efforts to slow inflation.

The U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs in March while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed.

Here are the key figures from the report, compared to last month's revised numbers:

Nonfarm payrolls: +236,000 vs. +326,000

Unemployment rate: 3.5% vs. 3.6%

Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.3% vs. +0.2%

Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 4.2% vs. +4.6%

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/march-jobs-report-april-7-2023-123139159.html

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From the source -

Link to tweet

BLS-Labor Statistics
@BLS_gov
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Payroll employment rises by 236,000 in March; unemployment rate changes little at 3.5% https://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
#JobsReport #BLSdata
8:30 AM · Apr 7, 2023

It's that Friday again and stay tuned for DU's economics analyzers to pipe in with the underlying data.

Article updated.

Original article/headline -

Jobs report: March jobs report shows hiring slows, unemployment rate steady at 3.5%

The March jobs report showed the U.S. labor market remains strong, likely keeping the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in its efforts to slow inflation.

The U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs last month as the unemployment rate held steady at 3.5%, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed.

Here are the key figures from the report, compared to last month's revised numbers:

Nonfarm payrolls: +236,000 vs. +311,000

Unemployment rate: 3.5% vs. 3.5%

Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.3% vs. +0.2%

Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 4.2% vs. +4.6%

(snip)

[progree]

1. LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs

Table A - Summary of Household Survey (produces unemployment rate, labor force participation rate) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Table B - Summary of Establishment Survey (produces the headline payroll jobs number and the average earnings) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm

Every one of these data series comes with a table and graph:

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

# Employed in thousands from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02000000

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
    ^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0500000001

# INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth

The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed. To count as unemployed, one must have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks (just looking at want ads and job postings doesn't count)

# ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Unemployed, Unemployment Rate
# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
    # Black unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
    # Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009
    # White unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003
# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709
------------ end unemployed, unemployment rates --------

# NILF -- Not in Labor Forcehttp://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

# NILF-WJ -- Not in Labor Force, Wants Job http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194

# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000

# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000

# Multiple Job holders (Table A-9) - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026619

# Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (Table A-9) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026620

# Civilian non-institutional population
Seasonally adjusted (they seem to have gotten rid of this) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000
NOT seasonally adjusted: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU00000000
. . In Table A-1 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm they show the same numbers for seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted

LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+.
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55-64: -------------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

LFPR - Labor Force Particpation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062

ETPR - Employment to Population Ratio for some age groups
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300000
25-34: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300060
55-64: SA: ---------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300097

Inflation rate (CPI)
. . . Monthly report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
. . . The Data Series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
. . . . . . Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Calculator at: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

Grocery prices (food at home) inflation compared to overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.in2013dollars.com/Food-at-home/price-inflation
. . . From 1947 to 2021 and from 2000 to 2021, food at home inflation very slightly lagged the overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142735789

Data series finder: https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

The entire report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Archives of previous reports - The monthly payroll employment reports from the BLS are archived at Archived News Releases (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/ ). In the list up at the top, under Major Economic Indicators, select Employment Situation ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm ). That opens up links to reports going back to 1994.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. Thanks!

That's the whole kit-and-caboodle!

[progree]

3. YW! Another uptick in the Labor Force Participation Rate, so I'm in a good mood

Last edited Fri Apr 7, 2023, 09:31 AM - Edit history (2)

Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar: 62.3 -> 62.4 -> 62.5 -> 62.6
Feb 2020 pre-pandemic peak: 63.3
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Edited to add:
LFPR age 25-54 (aka prime age): Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar: 82.4 -> 82.7 -> 83.1 -> 83.1
Jan 2020 (pre-pandemic peak): 83.1,   Mar 2022: 82.5
Nice to see that the prime age LFPR has fully recovered from the pandemic slump.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060

Unemployment rate 3.5% -> 3.4% -> 3.6% -> 3.5%
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Underemployment rate (U-6)
6.5% -> 6.6 -> 6.8 -> 6.7
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709

[BumRushDaShow]

5. Glad to see you in a good mood

TGIF and good morning!

[Bengus81]

4. I'm reading unemployment went down a tick from Feb to 3.5%

But their all quick to jump on this "cooling" economy. Ok FED,drop the interest rate 1/4% then.

Nah...like gas prices there's always that time "lag" if it would HELP consumers. A barrel of Oil has been going up and those POS around here wasted NO TIME in jacking prices at them pump when they never lowered the when it went down to the 60.00 range a couple of weeks ago.

[BumRushDaShow]

7. Yes - they did finally update to fix that

and I updated the OP.

[Johnny2X2X]

6. The media is so one sided right now.

‘Job market is cooling!!” Headlines everywhere. “Jobs report comes in below expectations!!!

239,000 expected Vs 236,000 added is not worthy of “below expectations!!!” Headlines. UE at 3.5% Vs 3.6% expected. So the jobs report basically was what was expected. Still strong.

[Marthe48]

8. Thank you President Biden

This is what competent government for the people looks like.

[IronLionZion]

9. Biden's socialist policies are creating so many jobs!

Yeah, I think reports of America's impending recession might be a bit premature.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

10. Thank you President Joe Biden

Link to tweet

[progree]

11. Bond yields log biggest daily gain in about 2 weeks as jobs report seen boosting Fed rate-hike chanc

Bond yields log biggest daily gain in about 2 weeks as jobs report seen boosting Fed rate-hike chances, MarketWatch, 4/7/23

BOND REPORT -- Treasury yields rose sharply in holiday-abbreviated trading Friday, though rates still concluded the week lower overall, after employment data for March was seen boosting the chances of another Federal Reserve interest-rate hike next month.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury note jumped 15.2 basis points to 3.970% from 3.818% on Thursday.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 9.4 basis points to 3.382% from 3.288% as of Thursday afternoon.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury advanced 6.3 basis points to 3.601% from 3.538% late Thursday.

All three yields jumped by the most since March 27, according to 3 p.m. ET figures from Dow Jones Market Data. For the week, however, they posted their biggest weekly declines since the period that ended March 17; the 2-year rate was down 9 basis points; the 10-year yield declined 10.9 basis points; and the 30-year rate was off by 8.7 basis points.

More: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bond-yields-log-biggest-daily-gain-in-about-2-weeks-as-jobs-report-seen-boosting-fed-rate-hike-chances/ar-AA19A4xS

The article goes on to summarize today's jobs report as about as-expected but lower than February's 326,000 jobs. And ...

"Hourly wages increased a mild 0.3% last month and the increase in pay over the past year slowed again to a nearly two-year low of 4.2% from 4.6% in February." (Compare to 6.0% CPI and 5.5% Core CPI over the past year. So the Fed should be happy with that part of it -Progree)

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The U.S. stock market was closed today, Good Friday, but the bond market had a shortened session.

The CPI inflation report comes out Wednesday, the PPI (wholesale prices) on Thursday