US Jobless Claims Hit Eight-Month High as Labor Market Cools

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Last edited Thu Jul 21, 2022, 09:04 AM - Edit history (2)

Source: Bloomberg

Markets
Economics

US Jobless Claims Hit Eight-Month High as Labor Market Cools
-- Initial unemployment claims increased last week to 251,000
-- Continuing claims up 51,000, largest advance since November

By Maria Paula Mijares Torres and Olivia Rockeman
July 21, 2022, 12:33 PM UTC * Updated onJuly 21, 2022, 12:50 PM UTC

Applications for US state unemployment insurance rose for a third week to the highest since November as more companies announce job cuts, suggesting some softening in the labor market.

Initial unemployment claims increased by 7,000 to 251,000 in the week ended July 16, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The figures coincide with the reference period for the July jobs report that's due early next month. The median estimate called for 240,000 applications in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

{snip}

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-21/us-jobless-claims-rose-last-week-to-highest-in-eight-months

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. From the source:

https://oui.doleta.gov/press/2022/072122.pdf

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

News Release

Connect with DOL at
https://blog.dol.gov

TRANSMISSION OF MATERIALS IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL
8:30 A.M. (Eastern) Thursday, July 21, 2022

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending July 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 251,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 244,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,500, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 235,750 to 236,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.0 percent for the week ending July 9, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 9 was 1,384,000, an increase of 51,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 2,000 from 1,331,000 to 1,333,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,353,250, an increase of 13,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 1,339,500 to 1,340,000.

{snip}

UNADJUSTED DATA

{snip}

The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending July 2 was 1,353,028, a decrease of 47,842 from the previous week. There were 12,555,535 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2021.

{snip the rest of the ten-page news release, until the end}

Weekly Claims Archives
Weekly Claims Data

U.S. Department of Labor news materials are accessible at http://www.dol.gov. The Department's Reasonable Accommodation Resource Center converts Departmental information and documents into alternative formats, which include Braille and large print. For alternative format requests, please contact the Department at [phone] (voice) or [phone] (federal relay).

U.S. Department of Labor
Employment and Training Administration
Washington, D.C. 20210
Release Number: USDL 22-1538-NAT

Program Contacts:
Kevin Stapleton: [phone]
Media Contact: [phone]

[JT45242]

2. Lazy slanted reporting

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

Look at this graph and try and sell gloom and doom you lying POS media.

This "jump" moves unemployment equal to the best it was under TFG. Better than it was for the ENTIRE time period from 2002-2019.

Jumping to 3.6% is really just a regression to the mean. Businesses fail. Seasonal work happens. Storm damage, plant change overs, etc. all cause people to file unemployment claims.

Unemployment rates up tp 3.6% from 3.5% is really just the baseline of what the numbers can show. Of course these could be adjusted downward in a month, and Bloomberg and the other media maggots will not tell a new story that the economy is really strong in terms of people working.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

4. Please note that the monthly unemployment rate numbers and the weekly initial unemployment claims

numbers measure two different things. They come from two entirely different agencies in the Department of Labor. The two agencies are not even in the same building.

The report that came out this morning is basically a weather report. The numbers come in over the week, and career economists turn them into a report. At 8:30 a.m. every Thursday, someone in ETA hits "send," and the report goes out. Financial reporters at Bloomberg, Reuters, et. al. look the numbers over, write up a few paragraphs, and hit "send" on their terminals. It's the same high temperature, low temperature, relative humidity, and chance of scattered showers no matter who writes it up.

Thanks for writing.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

3. U.S. weekly jobless claims hit fresh 8-month high

Reuters

U.S. weekly jobless claims hit fresh 8-month high

Thu, July 21, 2022 at 8:49 AM · 2 min read

(Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose for a third straight week last week to the highest in eight months, suggesting some cooling in the labor market amid tighter monetary policy and financial conditions.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 251,000 for the week ended July 16 from a unrevised 244,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 240,000 applications for the latest week.

With employment booming through the last year, claims fell to a near-record low in March and had been hovering around 230,000 since June before the previous week's increase to the highest since last November. Still, they remain below the level most economists see as presenting a threatening signal for the job market and economy more widely.

There have been reports of layoffs in the interest rate-sensitive housing and manufacturing industries. Despite some loss of momentum, hiring has remained robust, with 372,000 jobs created in June and a broader measure of unemployment falling to a record low.

{snip}

[progree]

5. Well, almost

Despite some loss of momentum, hiring has remained robust, with 372,000 jobs created in June and a broader measure of unemployment falling to a record low.

Well, almost, if the official unemployment rate is what is being referred too, and we're not looking way far back --

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

YEAR JAN FEB MAR etc. etc.
2019 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6
2020 3.5 3.5 4.4 14.7 13.2 11.0 10.2 8.4 7.9 6.9 6.7 6.7
2021 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.6 4.2 3.9
2022 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6

And there were lower ones than these way back (one can set the time range back to 1948)

1948 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0
1949 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.3 6.1 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.6 7.9 6.4 6.6
1950 6.5 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3
1951 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.1
1952 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7
1953 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.5
1954 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.3 5.0
1955 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2
1956 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.2
1957 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.2
1958 5.8 6.4 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.2 6.2
1959 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.3
1960 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.6
1961 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.1 6.0
1962 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.7 5.5
1963 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.5
1964 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.8 5.0
1965 4.9 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0
1966 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.8
1967 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8
1968 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
1969 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5
1970 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.1
1971 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.0
1972 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.2
1973 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.9
1974 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.6 7.2
1975 8.1 8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.2
1976 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8
1977 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 7.2 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.4
1978 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.2 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.9 6.0
1979 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0
1980 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.9 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2
1981 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.5
1982 8.6 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.8
1983 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.3
1984 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.3
1985 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0
1986 6.7 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.6
1987 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.7
1988 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3
1989 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4
1990 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.3
1991 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.3
1992 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.4
1993 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5
1994 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5
1995 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6
1996 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4
1997 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7
1998 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4
1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0
2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4
2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0
2008 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9
2010 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.8 9.3
2011 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.5
2012 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.9
2013 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7
2014 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.2 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6
2015 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0
2016 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7
2017 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1
2018 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9
2019 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6
2020 3.5 3.5 4.4 14.7 13.2 11.0 10.2 8.4 7.9 6.9 6.7 6.7
2021 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.6 4.2 3.9
2022 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6

There's a graph too at the link to help one look for low periods

[progree]

6. If the broader measure is U-6, sometimes called the underemployment rate

Then it looks to be correct, the 6.7% rate is a record low for this series that goes back to 1994

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709

It's basically the official unemployment rate (U-3) except that in U-6 they count people who have looked for work in the past year (rather than just the last 4 weeks as in U-3),

and in U-6 they count people who are working part-time who say they want a full-time job (but not in U-3 )

The latter criteria is why some call U-6 the underemployment rate.

YEAR JAN FEB MAR etc. etc.
1994 11.7 11.4 11.5 11.3 10.9 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.4 10.1 10.1
1995 10.1 9.9 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.0 10.1 10.0
1996 9.8 10.0 9.9 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.6
1997 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.3 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.5
1998 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 7.9 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.6
1999 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.7 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.1
2000 7.0 7.1 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8 7.1 6.9
2001 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.2 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.6
2002 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.8
2003 9.9 10.1 10.0 10.2 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.1 10.4 10.2 10.1 9.8
2004 9.8 9.7 10.0 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.7 9.4 9.3
2005 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 9.0 8.8 8.9 9.0 8.7 8.7 8.6
2006 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.0 8.2 8.1 7.9
2007 8.3 8.1 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.8
2008 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.8 12.7 13.6
2009 14.1 15.1 15.8 15.9 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.7 16.7 17.1 17.1 17.2
2010 16.6 17.0 17.1 17.2 16.7 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.9 16.6 16.9 16.6
2011 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.1 15.9 16.1 15.9 16.1 16.4 15.8 15.6 15.2
2012 15.1 15.0 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.8 14.4 14.4 14.4
2013 14.5 14.3 13.9 14.0 13.9 14.2 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.1 13.1
2014 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.3 12.3 12.0 12.1 12.0 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.2
2015 11.2 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.8 10.0 9.9
2016 9.7 9.6 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.2
2017 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.3 8.1 8.0 8.1
2018 8.0 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6
2019 8.0 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.2 6.9 7.2 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.8
2020 6.9 7.0 8.8 22.9 21.2 18.0 16.5 14.3 12.8 12.1 12.0 11.7
2021 11.1 11.1 10.7 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.2 7.7 7.3
2022 7.1 7.2 6.9 7.0 7.1 6.7

The link above includes a graph to help spot the high and low periods.