This week's Economist/YouGov Congressional ballot voting intention poll (weekly tracking)

[pat_k]

The bad news is that they are closing the gap. Given that they are spending billions and have already started deploying lies/attacks against our nominees, this should not be surprising.

I hate that it comes down to money, but it does. This year, each of us must dig deeper than ever, and ASK OTHERS to do the same. They are spending more than ever and it matters more than ever. If you are looking for "strategic" investment, I highly recommend Hopium Chronicles Winning the House Campaign (12 seats we have a REAL shot at flipping Red to Blue) and the Audacious Expansion Fund (building state parties in six key states)

The interactivity on the YouGov site is a bit hinky on my browser so I've included numbers for the past three months below.



Given the word "district" in the question, I assume people are answering in re: U.S. House

Over the past 3 months as nominees have been selected the trumpublican ecosystem geared up to to spread lies with AI bots and attack ads. We are seeing the result.

We must respond with our own fundraising (critical). And we must do what we can as information warriors for the Democratic Party and for our Candidates.

And, first and foremost, do no harm. Now is NOT the time to bitch about Democrats not doing enough. When you are feeling pissed off at members of our Party, channel that energy into helping a candidate win or strengthening your State Democratic Party. When what you have to say is more likely to demoralize, stop! Channel that energy into messages that inspire hope and action, because that is how We WIN.

June 15th
45.3 Democratic Party Candidate
43.1 Republican Party Candidate
7.8 Not Sure
2.3 I would not vote
1.5 Other

May 17th
45.4 Democratic Party Candidate
41.3 Republican Party Candidate
8.9 Not Sure
2.4 I would not vote
1.6 Other

Apr 13th
44.8 Democratic Party Candidate
40.6 Republican Party Candidate
10.5 Not Sure
2.5 I would not vote
1.6 Other

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Almost certainly an outlier

Every single other generic ballot poll has Dems ahead of republicans by 6-8 points on average.

[pat_k]

2. As a tracking poll, it's the changes over time that I watch.

It is not an "outlier" relative to itself.

You are probably thinking about the Emerson poll, which always has a bigger gap, but is nevertheless a useful poll for tracking changes over time. It comes out less frequently.