Gerrymandering's impact on the midterms for the mathematically challenged

[Fiendish Thingy]

(That includes me)

Republican seats added by Gerrymander:
TX +5
FL +4
TN +1
AL +1 (maybe)
LA +1
MO +1
NC +1
OH +1
——————
Total= 14-15 seats

Dem seats added by redistricting:

CA +5
UT +1 (yes you read that right)
—————-
Total= 6 seats

Now subtract the Dem gains from Republican gains:

14-15 - 6 = 8-9 net seat gain for Republicans.

Right now, Republicans have a five seat margin in the house, however, five seats are vacant. If all those seats were filled, as they were on January 3, 2025, the margin would be 3 seats.

So, 3 seat margin, + 8-9 seat gain via gerrymandering = 11-12 seat hypothetical margin.

Except, Dems are projected to pickup a minimum of 20-30 seats.

That gives Dems, at the very, very, bare minimum an 8 seat majority.

Now, some folks are projecting Dems could pick up as many as 40-50 seats. In 2018, when Trump’s approval ratings were higher than they are now, and inflation and the economy were doing much better, Dems picked up 40 seats.

And there’s (at least) one more factor to consider:

All that republican gerrymandering required some solid red districts to be weakened, and some of the new red districts aren’t that strong.

Remember this: throughout the past year, 2024 Trump +20 districts were swinging 15-30 points towards the Dems in actual elections, not just opinion polls.

So, if they took a Trump +20 district and turned it into a Trump +5 district in order to create another Trump +5 district out of a formerly Harris +5 district…can you do the math?

(If you can’t here’s, what it means: Dems could win both of those districts by 10+ points, if overperformance trends hold)

I’m not feeling cocky, I’m not over confident, but based on the data, including the fact that the Trump-induced, Republican-enabled suffering spreading across all regional, racial and partisan boundaries is only going to increase in the next six months, I draw this conclusion:

Nothing can stop the Blue Tsunami in November

[mr715]

1. Thank you for laying this out.

[biophile]

2. You are often right - I hope this opinion is also correct

And I agree no one thing can stop the blue tsunami. But lots of little things can. Gerrymandering, voter suppression, voter roll purges, misinformation campaigns, disinformation campaigns, armed goons at voting sites, another pandemic, targeted terrorist attacks by domestic terrorists, and the list goes on. This has always been their approach- by any and all means.
Thank you for your optimistic posts. I very much hope you are correct yet again!

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. Some of those things are worth considering, others are not.

For example, in GA, voter suppression laws have been in effect since before the 2024 election, yet voters elected 3 democrats to a utilities commission that had been solid republican for 30+ years.

[Ilikepurple]

3. You had me until the conclusion.

I do appreciate having this laid out for us.. I’m cautiously optimistic for the reasons clearly stated by you that things will go well in spite of the recent gerrymandering, but I’m not sure what tactical edge certainty in the face of uncertainty gives us. I do like the enthusiasm though and your post lifted my spirits in light of recent redistricting successes and failures by the two parties.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. Uncertainty cuts both ways

It could impact republicans as much or more than Dems, depending a lot a variables, some controllable, some not.

[Lovie777]

6. K & R.................

Americans are pissed. Over turning an election, it's will not fly.

Friends in VA, are angry.

The country is not happy. We are run by psychopaths - current government, US SC.

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. That's another piece of math I didn't mention!

Virginia, despite today’s ruling, looks to flip at least 2 seats, possibly up to 4 seats that are with that 15-30 point over performance margin.

[ecstatic]

7. I really hope you're right.

I just feel a little deflated. I'm sitting here wondering if people in "red" districts are bothered at all by what we're seeing. This is disgusting stuff. Anyone paying attention shouldn't be OK with other Americans being treated this way. A great way to show their disapproval would be to vote blue, even if they normally vote red. I guess we'll see.

[Fiendish Thingy]

9. There is plenty of evidence that republicans are already voting for Democratic candidates over the past year.

Many of the Dem wins over the past year would be mathematically impossible without republicans voting blue.

[gab13by13]

11. That is not relevant to what is happening with our elections.

[Intractable]

18. This comment (#11) is entirely irrelevant and quite unnecessary.

[Fiendish Thingy]

20. Sure it is. Nt

[gab13by13]

10. Louisiana was in the middle of voting

and the governor stopped the election so that the legislature could gerrymander. This cannot be swept under the rug with the notion that people will be pissed at what Magats did in Louisiana.

3 million people in Virginia went to the polls and voted to draw up new maps. The Va. SC nullified the election, nullified the will of the people of Virginia. This must not be swept under the rug by saying what 3 Magat judges did will piss people off in Virginia. We have to hope that the Supreme Court overturns the Va. SC.

Magat controlled states are not even bothering to put redistricting up for a vote, the state legislatures are simply passing new maps. This cannot just be swept under the rug. Democratic states that use non-partisan commissions to draw their maps are going to have to fight fire with fire and do away with these commissions to compensate for what Magat states are doing.

Everything is not coming up roses, we need to bring a gun to a gun fight.

[FoxNewsSucks]

12. Yeah, the rose-colored glasses some are wearing do not help at all.

I'd like to be optimistic, but I'm more realistic. They know all those things too. And will work to overcome whatever we do. So I don't see it as helpful when some say "we just need to GOTV" and then sit back and relax.

Also, MAGAts don't care if they piss us off. I think they actually enjoy that.

[gab13by13]

14. Here's the deal

Tennessee just redrew Memphis, sliced it up into 3 pieces and ran the pieces out into rural red Magat country.

The next step will be to remove voting machines in Memphis and move them to rural Magat country which will create 6 hour voting lines in the city.

...or send in ICE agents to polling places in the city to cause havoc.

Saying everything will be just fine condones rigging elections.

[FoxNewsSucks]

16. Texass did that to Austin years ago.

They never stop. I'd like to be optimistic, but I really can't.

[Fiendish Thingy]

21. Votes will be the bullets in this gun fight

I’m not claiming, nor is anyone else I can see, that Dems will win because people are pissed off at gerrymandering.

Dems will win, are winning, because in addition to having a more motivated voter base, The Trump-induced, republican- enabled, suffering is spreading across all regional, racial and partisan boundaries.

The shitty economy is making everybody miserable, and they are blaming republicans.

That, in a nutshell, is why Dems are going to win.

[gab13by13]

24. So you are espousing the Schumer strategy?

Krasnov will burn it all down and then People will vote for Democrats?

That's a bad strategy. Our house (country) is on fire we shouldn't stand back and let it burn down and then blame the arsonists.

[Fiendish Thingy]

29. Yeah, that's what I'm proposing- let Trump burn it all down.

JFC

I’m telling you that right now the people are blaming the republicans for their suffering, and that’s going to help Democrats win in November.

This is a thread about the impact of gerrymandering on the midterm elections.

With that context in mind, what the hell does this mean:

Krasnov will burn it all down and then People will vote for Democrats?

That's a bad strategy. Our house (country) is on fire we shouldn't stand back and let it burn down and then blame the arsonists.

I’m not saying Dems should do nothing else because people are so pissed, that Dems don’t need to campaign (that seems to be what you’re implying)

To paraphrase Dean Wormer: hyperbolic black and white thinking is no way to go through life.

If you want to start a thread about activism and what the people can do between now and the election, go right ahead.

[Strelnikov_]

13. Agree. The Texas gerry was based on Hispanic

voting patterns in 24. All signs are, they have lost the Hispanic vote.

Someone here noted that 80 GOP seats were won by 10% or less in 24. With the margins we are seeing in special elections, as you note . . .

[gab13by13]

15. What does this have to do with Magats rigging elections?

[Fiendish Thingy]

23. What rigging?

To me rigging means altering vote totals.

Yes there is suppression, gerrymandering and ratfuckery aplenty, but when you use the term “rigging”, that implies a helplessness of the voters, of the people, and it’s simply not true.

[gab13by13]

26. I stand by the word rigging.

When the conditions for voting are different for Democrats than for Republicans, that is rigging. When Democrats have to wait for 6 - 7 hours to cast a vote and republicans don't that is rigging.

The governor of Louisiana canceled an election where thousands of people had already voted nullifying their votes, that is rigging.

By the bye, Kamala Harris won the election.

[littlemissmartypants]

17. Apathetic non voting citizens can most certainly get in the way.

I never count my hatches before they chicken.

But thank you for the discussion, Fiendish Thingy.

[Fiendish Thingy]

25. Some People imagined they could afford to be apathetic in 2024

Since the Biden economy was doing so well.

But now, everyone is suffering, and they are blaming republicans.

[gab13by13]

27. Kamala Harris won the election.

[mr715]

31. No.

[Fiendish Thingy]

34. 2024 Election Denialism is just as kooky and evidence free as 2020 Election Denialism

9 million fewer people voted, and she lost- she admits she lost, her attorney Marc Elias admits she lost, but somehow you (and Rudy in 2020) know more about the election than the states that certified the votes?

Plenty of theories, but no evidence.

As Joe would say, C’mon man, that’s a bunch of malarkey.

Refusing to accept reality can be crippling in many ways.

You’ve made numerous barely coherent, thread hijacking posts to my OP - why not take a breath and see if there’s another topic somewhere else you can passionately discuss.

Isn’t it almost midnight your time?

[ColoringFool]

19. THANK YOU! 😊👍🤞🙏 🌊🌊🌊

[Norrrm]

28. Gerrymandering chart

[Fiendish Thingy]

30. Ah, but that presumes that all red voters will continue to vote red in 100% of races, 100% of the time

And that’s not happening.

While republicans are definitely tilting the playing field, there are going to be (already have been) some surprises when the votes are counted.

[mr715]

38. And, just to bring up a point you and I agree on...

When you win those light pink districts and the media narrative is how Trump is a wounded President and there is a mandate for change, relentlessly fight to expose the corruption and perversion of the courts. Make it a salient issue for everyone, not just the pseudo-wonks.

Make it so should we win the White House in 2028, we can erase Trump and protect our republic in the wake of what he has done.

When McConnell blocked Garland, the mistake Obama made was not putting forward a new appointment every day for the remaining 752 of his Presidency.

Now that the gloves are off, the Democrats need to reign in these extreme judicial activists.

[Fiendish Thingy]

39. While court expansion must be Dems top priority in 2029, I don't think it has to be front and Center in the 2028 campaig

It can be rolled into fighting the rampant corruption of the Trump era that has caused so much suffering for so many Americans.

It’s kind of funny, because for all the things Trump promised to do on Day One but couldn’t deliver, the next Dem president can make those promises.

Tariffs - gone on Day One
Iran war - ended on Day One, with troops on their way home, and gas prices will stop going up
ICE - ordered off the streets on Day One, investigated and prosecuted (some laws on qualified immunity might have to change)
And all those asinine EO’s that the states ignored, but some cowardly colleges, law firms and companies bent the knee to obey, gone on Day One (especially anti-DEI rules)
Rights for federal workers - restored on Day One

Of course, the damage and debris will remain, and require much work and funding to repair, and that will be the meat of the 2028 campaign, and if “Had Enough?” Is the slogan for 2026, I’ve got the perfect slogan for 2028 (albeit a little tongue in cheek):

“Democrats alone can fix it”

Okay, maybe it needs some work, but I couldn’t resist…

[mr715]

33. Assuming a fixed electorate, which is not the case.

Blue wins when a lot of those red boxes flip.

[NoMoreRepugs]

32. Pritzker I've read is considering countering the most recent red state redistricting.

[Fiendish Thingy]

35. Yes, I expect many blue states will redistrict, but not in time for the midterms, but for 2028. Nt

[Boo1]

36. Those republican redistricts...

are also all assuming that their votes fall like it's 2024. It's not. It's almost certain that some of the new districts will end up going D.

[mr715]

37. And if the optimistic models are correct,

many, many of them.

Many.

[IzzaNuDay]

40. If 90 million people get off their asses and vote blue in the midterms

Then it’s indeed possible we can undo this red redistricting gerrymandering effort. But in reality, I think the US hasn’t yet felt enough pain from what’s happened since this second term started.

[edhopper]

41. This

I no longer trust the American voter to be informed, smart or sane

[Aepps22]

45. Keep Failing Open Book Tests

I don’t blame you for feeling this way. The American Voter is so unreliable that I put no faith in them

[Fiendish Thingy]

42. It won't even take 90 million

If there is even a 10% increase in turnout among young voters in every region, Dems win in a landslide.

[edhopper]

46. I think we need a bigger edge

To overcome the gerrymandering.

[Fiendish Thingy]

47. I dont

Not with Trump +20 districts swinging 15-30 points towards the Dems.

But I guess we’ll find out.

[jimmy the one]

43. I am not mathematically challenged, but thanks for a concise portrayal

You explained it well for all of us and I hope you are an apt Nostradamus.
Cheers, oh fiendish one!

[JCMach1]

44. Given the environment, some of those TX seats are dummymandered

Especially in the RGV