Betting markets still think we win the House?

[Alhena]

Link to tweet

Hope this is true. All we need is one more seat to control the House. What are other betting markets saying now?

[lostincalifornia]

1. I wouldn't count on it, especially with the recent Supreme Court rulings essentially killing the voting rights act, and

the Virginia Supreme Court ruling that the redistricting ballot measure is not valid.

[Alhena]

2. That only resulted in a four point bump for Republicans in the market I linked

[Wiz Imp]

3. Democrats will win the House and it won't be close.

https://www.racetothewh.com/house
2026 House Election Forecast
Every week day, the House Forecast simulates the election 10,000 times. Since it was launched in 2022, it has correctly called 97.2% of races.

Chance to Win House Majority
Democrats 81.1% Chance
Republicans 18.9% Chance

Projected Seats Won
It takes 218 seats to win the House Majority
Democrats 233.7 Seats
Republicans 201.3 Seats

[Alhena]

5. We picked up 41 seats in 2018 and voters seem angrier now than they were then

[Wiz Imp]

8. Yep. The gerrymandering may allow the Republicans to somewhat limit their losses, but it won't prevent them from losing

the majority. And I suspect some of the gerrymandering will backfire on them. In order to redraw a Democratic district to a Republican majority, it requires they dilute their majority in previously safe R districts. I expect them to lose quite a few districts that pre-gerrymandering would have been easy wins.

[tanyev]

10. Gawd, I hope so. He loves having things named after himself?

How about The Donald J. Trump Dummymander.


🤞

[Aepps22]

4. Things are Terrible

The state of this country is so terrible that I still expect our side to win in a landslide. This gerrymandering nonsense is their last ditch effort to give them any chance and at the end of the day, votes still matter and lots of Dems, Independents and even some Republicans will be voting Blue in November.

[Wiz Imp]

7. Yep. And a reminder:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/independents-moving-strongly-against-trump-gop/
Independents Moving Strongly Against Trump, GOP

Independents tend to decide elections and PPP’s latest national poll finds Donald Trump and Republicans are in a lot of trouble with them.

Just 29% approve of the job Trump is doing to 63% who disapprove of him. Only 64% of the independents who voted for Trump are still happy with the job he’s doing and that’s brought his overall approval with people who voted for him in 2024 down to 80%. This is the weakest we’ve seen him with his base.

Trump’s fall with independent voters is having an impact on the outlook for this fall at the ballot box too. Usually independents are pretty closely divided, with just a small lean in one direction or another. Not this time- Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 51-30 with them.

Thanks to those independent voters, Democrats have a 48-41 generic ballot lead. And there are signs within the numbers that things could get worse for Republicans- among the folks who are undecided only 22% approve of the job Trump is doing to 56% who disapprove.

[Boo1]

6. Democrats are going to roll the house

The redistricting and voter right stuff going on is going to be the difference in a 40 seat majority vs a 30 seat majority at most.

It has 0 impact on senate elections, and we are going to win that chamber too.

[Safe as Milk]

9. If the redistricting debacles won't enrage the general electorate and push them to vote out the GOP,

nothing will. What they're doing crosses partisan lines. We all lose. Dems, Independents, and a good share of GOPers MUST see redistricting for what it is, or we will NEVER have a fair election again. The GOP is now a Trump cheating game and nothing more. There no longer is a GOP or conservative ideology. There is only Trump. Most GOPers haven't a clue. They still view themselves as "conservative" when Diddling Donny is anything BUT a conservative. But branding is a stubborn thing and Donny's billions can convince the convincable that night is day and orange is white. Any Dem campaigning has to cross some reluctant boundaries. Dems MUST reach out to Trumpers and tell them that Donny is not Reagan's political descendant. He's Putin's poodle. So, BTW, is Musk. They are following Putin's directives to destroy American democracy. Without this strategy to expose Putin's leadership in US politics, we're lost. PUTIN IS RUNNING THE SHOW and the nation's decline is Putin's objective. That's what Donny's followers need to know, and the Dems can't shout it loud enough.