Just in the past 4 days the price of diesel
around me in Wisconsin has gone up sharply. I have a commercial fuel discount card that takes off a good amount from normal retail but even with my card the fuel I bought on Thursday for $4.12 per gallon went to to $4.82 per gallon by Saturday evening. The fuel card can be used at many different places but the one I usually go to has been the cheapest typically. The day I paid $4.12 per gallon with my card the pump price was $4.59. Prior to the illegal war I was paying $3.08 per gallon with my discount card and occasionally around $2.95.
There has been some grudging willingness on the part of freight brokers to pay a higher freight rate but many are still quoting cheap rates to their shipper customers in order to attempt to keep the shippers from looking for an even cheaper broker. You never know with brokers because they hide the real rate being charged to the shipper. Most will lie about what they're doing and they will work both ends of the deal with a lie to both the shipper and the trucker.
The price increases for products that are made using oil/petrochemicals will be a hit to inflation along with increased costs for shipping. Even if the illegal war in the Middle East stopped tomorrow there is major damage to enough of the oil/refinery/petrochemical infrastructure that will take a long while to rebuild. So the price hikes aren't going away immediately once Crumb The 1st and Netanyahu get their fill of blood. If they ever do. I tend to believe there is no end to their thirst for blood after what Netanyahu has done to Gaza and Lebanon. They know they will never stand accountable in the Hague and so indicting them for war crimes doesn't stop them.
Long story short is that this illegal attack is going to have major negative impacts on the economies of countries around the world for several years even if the price of oil drops. Over the weekend I heard a person on MS Now phrase it best when he said that prices for things related to oil go up like an elevator when the price of crude shoots up but when crude comes back down the associated prices for fuels/etc. come down like an escalator.
Some folks are saying this will be a decade+ long impact. I think that is quite possible.