Tell me please?

[imanamerican63]

With a government shutdown, Trump spending more money than ever for a ballrooom, tariffs, inflation and the economy is taking a nose dive.

How is Dow Jones up over 47000 points?

[hlthe2b]

1. You don't want me to answer my thoughts on Wall Street investors...

But, just let it suffice that they have found some way to improve their "lot," while the rest of us suffer and they are happy to ignore the latter.

[EarthAbides]

2. Because rich people are doing great

But just wait until no one has any money to spend...

[Irish_Dem]

3. Grifting and scamming makes the rich richer. They are happy with the corruption.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

6. Easy goto answers do not explain the data or enlighten the poster. Corruption plays a minor role

There are much bigger forces at play than corruption.

[Irish_Dem]

9. You are talking about something else.

I am talking about the psychology of rich who live in a corrupt society
and pay for play government. And how that impacts their confidence
and the stock market.

I believe my input can enlighten others.

I can only speak to what I know.

If there are other factors to consider and you have expertise
in those areas it would be better to speak to that instead of lecturing
others on their areas of expertise. And telling others what to post or not post.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. tRump's corruption only accounts for a couple of billion dollars of grifting

Last edited Fri Oct 24, 2025, 05:16 PM - Edit history (1)

The stock markets are very well regulated. Allegations of corruption are an easy go to and corruption does exist but it is a pittance compared to technological, financial, and geopolitical forces.

The narrative of "telling others what to not post" is a bogus narrative. Post what you want, you will anyway. But I can and do cogently criticize glib and surface "explanations" that do not adequately explain anything. I rarely tell people not to post something: it takes outright fake news, AI slop, or conveying lies. When I am criticizing the lack of rigor in posts, there is an implicit wish that people think more about what they post, but I don't say don't post.

See my post #10 in this thread which I apologize that I did not immediately and instantly post due to its detail and thought and length. If you find facts and knowledge there that are glib and counter-factual, then reply to it.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. The Dow is bogus and is not the market. But the S&P 500 is in record territory.

Further, the Dow is not up over 47000 points. It up, but not by over 47000 points. It is above 47000 but up only 519 points.

The Dow is adding machine technology, a simple arithmetic addition of prices, not reflecting market capitalization which is the real issue. The Dow is highlighted by the media because the average viewer is clueless about the markets and the economy. Dow is only 30 stocks and they are price-weighted since 1894 for the convenience of adding machine operators. This is now 2025 and we have computers for such stuff.

Verizon is 40.58, Goldman Sachs is 759.54. If Goldman Sachs moves 1.00 % (7.60), then Verizon has to move 7.60 to have the same effect. That would be 18.72 %, a much bigger percentage. This despite the fact that Verizon has a market capitalization nearly as big as Goldman Sachs.

So the high priced stocks have much more effect on the Dow than the low priced stocks, as much as over 18 times the effect. Ditch the Dow.

[paleotn]

5. Bubble. Led by tech, particularly AI stocks

It’s untethered from reality. Feels a lot like the dot.com bubble circa 1998. And we all know how that ended. AI companies, some anyway, have a bright future, but current valuations are nuts.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. Yes. Frothy market. Increasing bubblicious activity. I hope to make a reply to OP with more detail. . . nt

[applegrove]

8. AI speculation. Otherwise the stock market is faultering.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

10. The stock markets are up bc of tech, rates, delayed effects, stimulus, and irrational exuberance

Tech: The AI bubble. Capital expenditure (capex) on data centres is propping up the economy. There is circular financing going on. Nvidia invested in Open AI which will use the money to buy Nvidia chips. Also involved in circularity are Oracle, Microsoft and Meta. Rick Perry (the old pol) brought an IPO that valued the company (Fermi: power for data centres) at $6 Billion, but they have no assets and no sales.

AI is very real and will blow your socks off, but not this year, not next year. There will be an AI winter, as has happened several times in the last 50 years, but this one is likely to be the briefest and shallowest of them all because of the advancement of the technology. The current issues are that centres are overly expensive and the current tech is hard to exploit despite the over-promising. It is only generative AI that mimics good looking answers regardless of the underpinnings. Rest assured that the next AI summer will deliver on this summer's promises and will make a new round of over-promises. Each forthcoming AI summer from here on will blow your socks off.

Rates: Interest rates are coming down. That stimulates the economy. Some is a good idea to combat rising unemployment, which is subdued by greatly reduced firing and reluctance of people with jobs to quit and look for better. Immigration has shut down.

Delayed effects: The deferred resignation agreements (layoffs) are only just kicking in, as are shutdown furloughs and "reductions in force". Tariff effects have been smeared out and not imposed uniformly or with a steady hand.

Stimulus: The Big Ugly Bill is stimulative to the economy because it has ballooned the deficit. The impact of the debt is increasing all the time and will catch up. Another delayed effect.

Irrational exuberance: The market is as highly priced as it has ever been. See the Schiller (Nobel economics) CAPE index: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe It's higher than 1929 and almost as high as the 2000 bubble. There are frothy over-valued IPOs. The retail investor is relentlessly buying the dips but that means they won't get out in time and will be jamming the exits when the crunch comes. The Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that focused on meme stocks is back now, after having crashed and burned a couple of years ago.

[BoomaofBandM]

12. Because the very rich are getting a ballroom. Of course.