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bigtree

(92,927 posts)
Tue Sep 30, 2025, 08:46 PM Sep 30

This may well be the end of federal government as we know it today, worse than even this sorry state

...when it opens, or if it opens again.

White House lays groundwork for mass government firings if there's a shutdown.

The Office of Management and Budget says in a memo that agencies should prepare reduction-in-force plans to accompany furloughs if a spending bill isn't passed next week.

"With respect to those Federal programs whose funding would lapse and which are otherwise unfunded, such programs are no longer statutorily required to be carried out," the memo says. "RIF notices will be in addition to any furlough notices provided due to the lapse in appropriation."

"Programs that did not benefit from an infusion of mandatory appropriations will bear the brunt of a shutdown, and we must continue our planning efforts in the event Democrats decide to shut down the government," the memo says.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/white-house-omb-memo-mass-firings-government-shutdown-congress-rcna233590


Trump could use a shutdown to dismantle government functions, wrote Max Stier, chief executive of the Partnership for Public Service, a nonprofit focused on improving the federal government.

If lawmakers can’t reach a deal, Stier wrote, Trump and Vought “will have enormous latitude to determine which services, programs, and employees can be sidelined, decisions that could go far beyond what has occurred during past shutdowns.”

Beyond the Antideficiency Act, which says the government cannot spend money or incur debts without Congress’ authority, the shutdown process has historically been guided by traditions, not laws.

In recent past shutdowns, hundreds of thousands of employees were furloughed, but the shutdowns did not result in mass permanent layoffs or significant reorganizations. Under federal law, federal workers also receive back pay for their time on furlough.

Trump and his congressional allies would be in charge of the government amid a shutdown.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/how-a-government-shutdown-could-give-trump-more-power


___Democrats and Republicans must agree on a temporary spending bill by the end of Tuesday to avoid a government shutdown. And as of Monday morning, a shutdown — of undetermined duration — looks more likely than not. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries appear determined to play hardball, as restive Democratic voters demand their leaders take a more aggressive posture against an administration they loathe — and which has steamrolled Congress on spending. Democrats are demanding an extension of Obamacare subsidies in exchange for the Senate votes necessary to meet the 60-vote threshold and keep the government open. (The two Democratic leaders are meeting with their Republican counterparts and President Donald Trump on Monday, slightly raising the odds of a last-minute deal.)

The party demanding concessions usually takes the blame for a shutdown and its attendant downsides. But this time around, there’s another factor for Democrats to keep in mind: the Trump administration’s mission to cripple the administrative state. Russell Vought, the powerful head of the Office of Management and Budget, has threatened to institute mass layoffs in the event of a shutdown, to which Democrats have reacted defiantly. But how realistic is the threat?

Don Kettl, a professor emeritus and former dean at the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, who is an expert on the federal bureaucracy:

I think this is not a bluff. It’s entirely possible that the Republicans wouldn’t mind at all taking the short-term hit of whatever blowback there may be from a government shutdown in exchange for gaining more power over both the budget and the personnel system. They’ve been campaigning across the board for the power to be able to fire anybody they want to fire, from Federal Reserve Board members to people working in local social-security offices. There is a large group of people on the right, many of whom work inside the administration, who believe that the president has that power — that all federal employees ultimately are at will, and they think they can trace it back to the time of the founding. So they want to try to establish that policy and use this as a precedent, and then combine that with the power of impoundment. So I think they would not be very disappointed if it turns out they can blame the Democrats for having triggered the shutdown, then use that shutdown to be able to expand the president’s power into areas where they’ve wanted to move.

I can’t get inside their heads, and this certainly is not what I would recommend to anybody, but it could work something like this: There’s no money appropriated, there’s no continuing resolution, and there’s a shutdown. So then there’s a question of what actually gets shut down. And OMB, as it turns out, is who decides which employees and which functions are essential and which ones are not. Russell Vought has already said that he’s going to tell everybody that the most essential functions are ones that were in the Big Beautiful Bill Act, and the ones that weren’t are not. So they could say, “We’re really sorry, but you’re gone, because you’re doing a nonessential function and there’s no money to pay you.”

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/are-democrats-about-to-walk-into-a-government-shutdown-trap.html



“Put Them In Trauma”: Inside MAGA Leader Russell Vought’s Plans For A New Trump Agenda

A key Trump ally detailed plans to deploy the military in response to domestic unrest, defund the EPA and put career civil servants “in trauma” in a series of previously unreported speeches that provide a sweeping vision for a second Trump term.

In private speeches delivered in 2023 and 2024, Russell Vought, who served as Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, described his work crafting legal justifications so that military leaders or government lawyers would not stop Trump’s executive actions.

He said the plans are a response to a “Marxist takeover” of the country; likened the moment to 1776 and 1860, when the country was at war or on the brink of it; and said the timing of Trump’s candidacy was a “gift of God.”

Another priority, according to Vought, was to “defund” certain independent federal agencies and demonize career civil servants, which include scientists and subject matter experts. Project 2025’s plan to revive Schedule F, an attempt to make it easier to fire a large swath of government workers who currently have civil service protections, aligns with Vought’s vision.

“We want the bureaucrats to be traumatically affected,” he said. “When they wake up in the morning, we want them to not want to go to work because they are increasingly viewed as the villains. We want their funding to be shut down so that the EPA can’t do all of the rules against our energy industry because they have no bandwidth financially to do so.

“We want to put them in trauma.”

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-key-ally-russell-vought-agenda_n_671fed62e4b0a55cb4cdec09


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bigtree

(92,927 posts)
2. if you have any vulnerabilities that you rely on the government to assist or aid in
Tue Sep 30, 2025, 09:11 PM
Sep 30

...you might want to take measures to make certain those are protected or still available.

I don't understand, 'time to roll over..." but I do know that many people are expecting something like the last one, and this is something more sinister and devastating, I believe.

It's another one of those cases where people who have means will weather this, and vulnerable people will likely suffer, and I suspect that's the dividing line between those expressing concern tonight and those cheering this on like the party out of power has some magic way to make this work in our favor.

This is a shitpile Trump's steered us into, and we're going to be forced to swim in it.

marble falls

(68,818 posts)
4. I'm on VA, I've had two major surgeries for cancer plus a series of tumorectomies and two series of ...
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 01:36 PM
Oct 1

... infusions to fire up my immunology to help fight cancer, plus four UT infections, including this last one that went septic in July that I didn't get the finishing surgery done until this last Monday. Oh, and the Brucelosis that happened two years ago. I am also dependent on my SS for my income.

Fuck all if I'm going to quit. The apricot asshole is not winning. The courts have done a great job of holding him back. The military will not do what he wants it to do. Time is running out. Now we need a Congress to delineate what a POTUS can and cannot do.

?c=2



bigtree

(92,927 posts)
3. Here's what a government shutdown could affect around the country
Tue Sep 30, 2025, 10:57 PM
Sep 30
https://www.npr.org/2025/09/30/g-s1-90732/government-shut-down

If there is a shutdown, as many 4 million federal employees, including some service members, could go without a paycheck. Hundreds of thousands -- including airport security officers, air traffic controllers and certain members of the military -- will be deemed essential workers and told to come to work anyway. ICE agents also go without pay. National parks could close and the Smithsonian museums also typically close within a few days.

Roughly 2 million troops could be forced to work without pay next month, including hundreds of members of the National Guard Trump has deployed to U.S. cities.

Federal contractors, including hourly workers such as janitors and security guards, are not required to work and are also not guaranteed backpay. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill would continue to get paid their $174,000 annual salaries.

more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-us-government-may-shut-down-at-midnight-heres-what-to-know/ar-AA1NAOtm

haele

(14,703 posts)
13. Don't expect this administration to work with banks and financial institutions
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 03:10 PM
Oct 1

To repay "grace" loans, offset late fees, or to provide back pay so that those employees who are furloughed or working without pay can continue to pay rent/mortgages or other bills during the furlough.
Basically, if you're furloughed, Russel Voight wants you to quit. And if you quit, no unemployment...

I fully expect a pResident famous for never paying his contractors after they finished a job not to pay furloughed or essential government workforce.
That's the Kleptocracy way of doing business, after all....
On edit - the "What to expect" article was based on rules established in the aftermath of the outcry and scrambling that happened after Newt Gingrich shut down the government for his Contract on America using Grover Norquist's playbook. Back then, the media and public weren't so complacent, and the Democrats held the White House and the bully pulpit.
Every time since the government faces a budget shutdown, those rules are invoked.

So far as I've read, Magic Mike hasn't done that yet. And this Administration doesn't care who might be hurt.

Initech

(106,498 posts)
5. THEY. FUCKING. PLANNED. FOR. THIS.
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 01:47 PM
Oct 1

It was a deliberate setup from day one. MAGA is absolutely giddy over this. It was 100% bait so they could sell this shit to fucking Fox News so they can win 2026. This was a hit job, it was timed, and it was planned. Fuck the GOP and their shitty propaganda channels.

Donald Trump and his fascist goons are sadistic psychopaths who just want to watch the world burn.

bigtree

(92,927 posts)
8. yep
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 02:04 PM
Oct 1

...they're going to play the game of pretending the money is precious now and only the priorities they choose will be funded and allowed to contiune - all while (ineffectively, I think) trying to blame their carnage on Democrats.

themaguffin

(4,728 posts)
6. They. Have. Already. Done. Mass. Firings.
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 01:49 PM
Oct 1

Thousands and thousands of Federal employees fired while the government was running.

bigtree

(92,927 posts)
7. there. will. be. many. more.
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 02:02 PM
Oct 1

...under this shutdown, the WH advantaged by the money squeeze the shutdown engenders as THEY are now the ONLY ones in control of what stays or goes, what's funded by what's in the kitty, and what they decide to withhold money from.

bigtree

(92,927 posts)
11. but there is a shutdown
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 02:46 PM
Oct 1

...and we can discuss this now without the politics that assumes some choice we make or some position we take makes any difference in this engineered shutdown.

And if we don't just want to focus on the politics of the shutdown, we can take a look at what republicans plan behind their shutdown.

And I'd think we'd like to take some time to advocate around those things that hurt people, while others play their politics.

themaguffin

(4,728 posts)
12. yes, there is a shutdown
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 03:03 PM
Oct 1

Last edited Wed Oct 1, 2025, 04:04 PM - Edit history (1)

Most R House members weren't even in DC. This shutdown was going to happen.

It's ridiculous to think otherwise. Full stop.

Discuss, but discuss honestly and in reality.

Johonny

(24,846 posts)
14. Hate to live in a state without strong back up
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 03:45 PM
Oct 1

Programs, because the federal government does a lot of shit for people. Shit Trump doesn't know about.

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