Trump's "trade barriers" figures are actually the proportion of trade deficit to imports into the USA

[muriel_volestrangler]

(with a minimum of 10% for countries with little deficit, or a traded surplus, ie USA exports more to them than imports).

Link to tweet

"Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.

So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is."

This really seems to be true. eg

"U.S. goods imports from Lesotho in 2024 were $237.3 million, up 4.7 percent ($10.6 million) from 2023. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Lesotho was $234.5 million in 2024"
234.5/237.3 is 99% - the Lesotho figure (no country goes higher than 99%, because a trade deficit can't be bigger than the total of imports). Or take a country at random - Serbia.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/us-trade-deficit-by-country

deficit: $542.8 million; imports: $734.6 million. Ratio: 74%. And that's figure given for Serbia: https://www.investopedia.com/how-much-reciprocal-tariff-will-be-for-each-country-trump-trade-11708072

They have just taken a number for each country's deficit, lied about it being "tariffs charged to the U.S.A. including Currency Manipulation and Trade Barriers", put a minimum of 10% (because for some countries, it would be a negative number otherwise), and said "we'll charge half that, with a minimum of 10%".

This is literally the biggest economic bullshit any country has ever attempted.

(Hat-tip to the Lawyers, Guns & Money blog who pointed out the tweet: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/04/liberation-day-2

[ms liberty]

1. Most average Americans wouldn't catch it, or know how to calculate it.

They depend on their trusted source to tell them what to believe.

[nature-lover]

2. Alternative math?

[highplainsdem]

3. K&R! I was about to post this. Ron Filipkowski posted on Bluesky about that James Surowiecki

tweet and called what the Trump admin is doing "Economic Suicide by Dipshittery."

https://bsky.app/profile/ronfilipkowski.bsky.social/post/3llunrfmobk26

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. Though it's not just "suicide", it's mass murder, followed by the perpetrator killing himself

I really mean it when I say I think this is biggest pile of bullshit any country has ever produced as "policy". It's like a toddler has been let loose with a calculator, and that's what's going to run a business.

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. They've now admitted this, saying "math is hard!!!" and they couldn't work out real figures

https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations

"While individually computing the trade deficit effects of tens of thousands of tariff, regulatory, tax and other policies in each country is complex, if not impossible, their combined effects can be proxied by computing the tariff level consistent with driving bilateral trade deficits to zero. "

No attempt to justify the blanket 10% tariff on countries that the US has small trade deficits, or any trade surplus, with.

Trade deficits exist when one country has attractive goods another wants to buy. That could be because the country is relatively poor (eg Vietnam) and people there will work for less. It could be because their products are high quality and in demand (eg Ozempic from Denmark). It could be because the country has a younger population, more in work, than the importing country which has more retirees with money who want to buy stuff, not work and sell it.

To try and claim that trade economics is the entire world "ripping off" the USA is the dumbest, most dishonest, most damaging economic act a major country has ever attempted. The Trump Global Depression, if he is not stopped, will join the Great Depression as a defining moment in world history.

[GoodRaisin]

6. Between this and DOGE the incompetence is just overwhelming.

We need to get this clown out of the White House good and fast and reverse all the nonsense he’s created. I’ll be going to the protest on Saturday. I hope there are millions across the country to come out and support getting this fool out once and for all.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. I've found the one country on which Trump has applied lower tariffs: Afghanistan

Hidden in the list, Afghanistan is listed as 49% "tariffs, trade barriers etc." (ie deficit / imports), but rather than 24 or 25% "reciprocal tariffs", it's only 10%.

https://www.investopedia.com/how-much-reciprocal-tariff-will-be-for-each-country-trump-trade-11708072

Even a country that Trump claims to adore, Israel, has 33% "trade barriers etc.", and the consequent 17% "reciprocal tariffs". Trump is doing the Taliban a special deal.

[underpants]

11. What does Afghanistan export?

Oil thru Russia
Heroin

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. Deutsche Bank: "raises serious concerns about policy credibility" - you don't say????

Deutsche Bank say this approach to calculating the tariffs “raises serious concerns about policy credibility, undermining the USD [the dollar].”

They draw three conclusions:

First, the US administration is squarely focused on penalizing countries with larger trade deficits in goods (services are ignored). This determination is highly mechanical, rather than a sophisticated assessment of tariff and non-tariff barriers. It is also in line with the declaration of a national emergency on the trade deficit used as a legal justification for the tariffs.

Second, there is a very large disconnect between communication in recent weeks of an in-depth policy assessment of bilateral trade relationships with different countries versus the reality of the policy outcome. We worry this risks lowering the policy credibility of the administration on a forward-looking basis. The market may question the extent to which a sufficiently structured planning process for major economic decisions is taking place. After all, this is the biggest trade policy shift from the US in a century. Crucially, major additional fiscal decisions are lining up over the next two months.

Third, the tariff calculation approach arguably makes for a more free-wheeling and open-ended nature to potential trade negotiations in coming months. It seems there are no specific and identifiable policy asks per se but ultimately a desire to reduce bilateral trade imbalances.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/apr/03/business-news-live-updates-trump-tarrifs-asian-markets-nikkei-asx-wall-st-dow-jones-dollar-euro?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-67ee42e78f08188975c64626#block-67ee42e78f08188975c64626

So they've taken a figure - deficit to import ratio - and lied about what the figure is, saying it shows how every country in the world, including islands only inhabited by penguins, are "ripping off" the USA. They've then ignored trade in services, only looking at goods figures. So this is like a farmer selling $100 of meat to a restaurant, and then coming in to have a meal and paying $100. Rather than seeing this as normal trade, this is like the restaurateur saying "you ripped me off! I paid you $100! That's 100% currency manipulation and trade barriers! I'm putting a 50% tax on my employees' wages until you buy something physical from me".

This is the economics of insanity.

[superpatriotman]

9. Who will scream this from the mountain tops?

In language a second grader will understand?

[underpants]

10. Math