FOX News has strange poll numbers...

[Pototan]

...that defy conventional wisdom. It finds Trump up by 2 points nationally, yet Harris leads by 6 points in the 7 swing states.

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-trump-ahead-harris-2-points-nationally

Former President Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential contest 50%-48%, according to a new Fox News national survey. That’s a reversal from last month, when Harris had a narrow advantage.

Harris, however, is ahead by 6 points among voters from the seven key battleground states, and the candidates are tied at 49% each among voters in close counties (where the Biden-Trump 2020 margin was less than 10 points). Trump’s advantage comes from a larger share in counties he won by more than 10 points in 2020 (64%-35%) than Harris has in counties Biden won by more than 10 points (58%-39%).

[ColinC]

1. So she has an electoral college advantage?

She doesn't need to win the popular vote. Just the electoral college. Great news!

[Skittles]

3. can you imagine how much it would drive repukes insane

if a DEMOCRAT won via Electoral College only?

[ColinC]

7. Itd be kinda awesome

AlthoughIone can't help but think they would try to make an exception for it that one time with a lofty supreme court ruling

[Skittles]

12. even though they would get a decent president

while WE get fucking NITWITS

[stopdiggin]

8. I think the 6 point lead in swing states is HIGHLY questionable

and I rather doubt that is what the polling actually says (Fox's or anyone else's)

[Lovie777]

2. Did they forget NY and California?......

[Skittles]

4. don't they always?

they're not, you know, REAL AMERICA!

[Klarkashton]

5. Thats not possible. JFC

[Diraven]

6. Fox News polls are crazy

A couple weeks ago they put one out that literally claimed there was a 25% swing of younger voters away from Harris toward Trump in the 3 weeks after the Dem Convention. I think what they do is decide the result they want and massage the "weightings" until they get it.

[Doodley]

9. Amazing what can happen when they pull random numbers out of their asses.

[Wiz Imp]

10. Talk about an outlier

Not only is the top line an outlier, but the numbers they show for the various demographic breakdowns are way out of whack with any other polls as well. And as others have said, the swing state number makes no sense to the point of being impossible. Besides, any "state" numbers are effectively garbage anyway given that they didn't sample at a state level. I wouldn't be too concerned with this poll, especially with the boatload of reputable polls from the past 2 days all showing a 3 point or better lead for Harris.

This really smacks of Fox intentionally releasing poll numbers significantly different than anyone else on purpose in order to get more attention without concern for accuracy but possibly to help the narrative of Trump winning so he can cry "stolen election!".

[0rganism]

11. Looks like someone trying to tune the "likely voter" model at the last minute

"Frank we need to publish those results at 3pm today. Did you finish the adjustments you were talking about yesterday?"

"Just a few more changes Bert, the new crosstabs look funny."

"But you came up with a Trump win, right?"

"Sort of, but there's a problem."

"Great. No time to fix it, we're live in 5 minutes."

"OK, Bert, but it's your funeral."