It's hard to ignore the polls

[pat_k]

I try my best to ignore the polls, but it's tough. Seeing oddsmakers swinging to Trump in the swing states is leaving me feeling ill.

And the Harvard poll and Mark Penn's comments that the early vote leans Trump in swing states.

Of course, the odds and that poll aren't independent events.

But I'm having a hard time shaking a horrible sinking feeling.

The thought I'm hanging into is that pollsters are oversampling Trump voters to correct for under sampling in 2016 and 2020 -- and the dynamics this year are the opposite, with Trump people actually less likely to turn out. This would mean the polls will once again be way off -- perhaps even more, with the outcome ultimately being Harris way overperforming the polls were seeing.

The thought helps, but then I think about how a "surprise" big win for Harris would play right into election denier insanity, and my heart sinks at that prospect.

I'm doing my best to keep the anxiety in check, but completely failing. This is bad. It's hard to take positive action when you can barely breathe. I imagine I'm not the only one and that thought. . .

Arrerghhh

I'll somehow find a way to stop spinning and get back on track. Hoping a little venting may help.

[BlueInPhilly]

1. Here... hope this helps

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/georgia-results

[obamanut2012]

6. People in GA do not register by party affiliation, so where are those numbers coming from?

They had to make them up.

[pat_k]

12. Hmmmm

My guess is that there is some basis. With big data these days they may be able to correlate with party preference ballot requested in primaries or some such.

[obamanut2012]

15. Then they made up the numbers

[TwilightZone]

17. Below the graph, there's a note that the data is modeled by TargetSmart.

See my post below:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219572454#post16

[TwilightZone]

16. The data, as noted below the graph, is modeled by TargetSmart.

TargetSmart is a data-modeling company. They use info available from state officials, public records, and third parties.

Some states do not track voter registration by gender or party, so how does TargetSmart have data for these states? – At TargetSmart, we append a wide range of data to the publicly available voter files acquired from state election departments, including demographic and consumer data. We also use statistical models to fill in gaps in information – because gender or party is not reported in certain states, we utilize third party data and models.

https://targetsmart.com/the-targetsmart-voter-registration-dashboard/

[pat_k]

20. Thx!

[Walleye]

32. Do they all use the same data modeling company? I

[Sedona]

52. As a Georgia voter...

We absolutely do register by party.

[pat_k]

10. Yes! That does help.

[JohnSJ]

2. Just curious, how do they know that early voting in swing states "swings to trump". As for the polls, they have

admitted they are "adjusting" for the under-sampling of republicans in 2016 and 2020.

My question is, how are they "adjusting" that?

Are the polls factoring the events of January 6, 2020 in their adjustments?

Anyone who says they know how the election will turn out is just guessing.

Best thing to do is do what you can to elect Democrats, and forget the polls.

Everyone is nervous now.

The good news is that in Georgia they ruled that there will be no hand counting of ballots, and this committee has no authority to block certification of the election.

There are people on our side working hard to insure this is a fair election.

[pat_k]

13. It was gratifying to see those decisions.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. The 2022 averages were manipulated and the media claimed the GOP would pick up 40+ seats

In the end, they picked up about 12, IIRC.

Here’s some essential reading to help cure your polling addiction:

https://prospect.org/politics/2024-09-25-polling-imperilment/

Polling is broken, and the fact is, nobody knows the current state of the race .

And for God’s sake, whatever else you do, stop listening to Mark Penn! (And Nate Silver)

[pat_k]

25. Good article to help ground thinking in reality. Thx!

[obamanut2012]

4. What you are posting isn't actually true

I am not calling you a liar at all, but you have accepted misinformation as truth and facts. And, why in the world you are accepting crypto betting sites plumped up by huge Trumpie whales is puzzling AF.

[pat_k]

18. I do recognize. . .

. . . markets are probably being manipulated and pollsters are probably overcorrecting to fight the "last battle" (2016 and 2020 errors), but that raises the worry that predictions being way off will pour fuel on the election denial insanity if/when predictions prove to be way off.

But your admonition does help me truly ignore this shit. I have no control, except over what I do. I just wish my anxious physiology would get the message.

[Jack Valentino]

61. and all that "betting money" being wagered over Trump, is money that is NOT

going to Trump or Republican campaigns to help them win!


A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money when this is over. If I had any to spare, I'd be laying a wager on Harris-Walz!

[usaf-vet]

5. My understanding is one they are only sampling former voters which leads to leaving out young women voters. And women...

.... still, in the child-bearing ages, some will be first-time voters on one issue: the overturning of Roe v. Wade. The unpolled voters want the right to make up their own minds regarding their bodies and health issues.

[pat_k]

26. More reason to conclude polling is glorified guesswork.

[Self Esteem]

39. Republicans also use this as proof Trump is going to do better.

They believe they've found a surge of support with young men.

It remains to be seen if it'll work. Both sides are relying on an age demographic that doesn't really show up and is very finicky.

In fact, when the dust settled after 2022, the youth turnout was actually down five-points compared to 2018's midterms.

No one knows how this election will go beyond it likely being close either way.

[PeaceWave]

7. Being prepared requires seeking out the best information you can...

It sounds like you're already well aware that the national vote isn't what wins an election. Which means that - yes - we do really need to be focused on the 7 swing states. The polling for these states has been all over the place. Some of them are clearly biased (ahem, Rasmussen, we're looking at you). Other polls have long histories of being reputable. Focus on those. Take an average of them to get an idea where your candidate is. Look also at the trend line to get an idea who has momentum. Will it be close? Almost certainly. Which is why I personally think that being prepared for any outcome (we win, they win, the whole thing ends up being decided by either the House or the Supreme Court) is the best way to go. Until then, be easy on yourself. Once you've voted, the outcome is literally out of your hands.

[pat_k]

27. Thx!

[pwb]

8. Vent accepted.

Last edited Wed Oct 16, 2024, 02:21 PM - Edit history (1)

The media needs its horse race to get more of the election ad pie is all this is. We will win bigger than ever before. IMO.

[pat_k]

28. Thx!

[Emile]

9. Early voters favor Democrats. They are seeing

record numbers of voters willing to stand in long lines to vote. Prominent republicans are vocally supporting the democratic ticket.

It will be a landslide victory for Kamala & Walz.

[pat_k]

29. Hope so!

Having a definitive outcome election day would be delightful!

[democratsruletheday]

41. I'm more inclined to agree and believe your post Emile...

I'm a voracious reader and there is a sea change underway toward Harris/Walz. The OP's anxiety is understood as I have it too but the facts don't back it up. GOTV and we WILL prevail.

[Think. Again.]

11. Not for me.

[lees1975]

14. Listening to Stephanie Miller this morning, they were giddy over the fact that the early voting in Georgia and

Pennsylvania was overwhelmingly Democratic and the Democrat over Republican numbers that are out so far are showing a significant increase over 2020. That, along with eight national polls recently released showing her leading by +3 to +5, ought to erase any speculation about the direction things are going. I would like pollsters to explain with better detail the shifts they claim to see happening week to week, why Harris goes from +5 to -1 to +4 in two weeks, if that's really what is happening. Or why, because of their perception of voter enthusiasm, they'd write off 90% of the poll results that come in from Philadelphia, because they don't think that many people in Philadelphia will vote compared to the rest of Pennsylvania?

Anyone who is observant, and good at picking up on hints, like my wife, can see from the signs that this election is going Harris' way. The most important poll as far as expressing opinions are concerned, is money. Harris has twice the contributors giving twice the money, not counting PACs. Gotta go all the way back to Reagan-Carter in 1980 to find that much of an out of line imbalance in political contributions. I read somewhere on this board that Harris has raised so much, one of her fundraising outlets is actually sharing cash with Congressional and Senate candidates.

[pat_k]

31. Bookmarked to keep reminding myself

[-misanthroptimist]

19. Well, I'm not going to stop you from enjoying misery.

...if that's what you're into. But my considered opinion at this point is that Kamala Harris will win the popular vote by 6-8% and the Electoral Vote with at least 305 EVs.

[Aepps22]

21. Are you Volunteering or Donating?

Action can help with your fears. It sure beats doomscrolling.

[pat_k]

33. Yes. And it does help.

The last couple weeks my schedule has been nuts, so I haven't been able to do phone banking. Probably being generally beat and not able to do more is the real root of my anxiety.

[WarGamer]

22. I know it's hard but you need to change the way you're looking at it.

It's the Yankees vs Dodgers in the World Series.

Two evenly matched electorates and either side can win.

Enjoy!

P.S. In this example... I believe the Democrats have better starting pitching and they have Shohei... so they have an edge.

[pat_k]

35. You take me back to '81

We had the series on in the office in LA. (The boss was a big Dodger fan.) A close friend/co-worker was from NY. She was truly heart broken as the rest of the office celebrated.

[Wiz Imp]

23. First of all, why would anyone listen to Mark Penn?

He's just another right wing grifter at this point who tries to take advantage of his past as a Democrat. I mean, seriously check this out:

Link to tweet

?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1833926090399907876|twgr^fa60eefc97cffd4179628181337e313c261b9231|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fhotair.com%2Fdavid-strom%2F2024%2F09%2F13%2Fmark-penn-calls-for-investigation-into-abc-debate-shenanigans-n3794434

To be clear, he's saying the one repeating serial falsehoods is Harris NOT Trump. From elsewhere: https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/09/13/mark-penn-calls-for-investigation-into-abc-debate-shenanigans-n3794434

"I don't know what they told the Harris campaign. I think the day after, suspicion here is really quite high, and I think a review of all their internal texts and emails really should be done by an independent party to find out to what extent they were planning on, in effect, you know, fact-checking just one candidate and in effect, rigging the outcome of this debate. I think the situation demands nothing less than that," he added.

He's spouting batshit insane right wing conspiracy theories. I wonder what serial falsehoods he claims Harris repeated (in fact there were none). And the only way ABC did a poor job of factchecking Trump is they only called out 3 or 4 of his lies, when they actually could have and should have called him out 4 or 5 times as often.

Second, why do you want to ignore the polls? Harris lead is very solid nationally and has started to expand in the last 2 days with the release of 8 new national polls. And Harris leads in 4 of the 7 swing states according to 538 averages (even though 538 is still including several extremely biased right wing polls in their calculations). She is down by only 1% in GA & NC with those right wing polls included so she may well be ahead in both states. Odds are not swinging to Trump in the swing states - poll margins have narrowed due a bunch of biased pollsters dumping a ton of right wing polls in the past couple weeks. The purpose of those polls is not to accurately gauge the true state of the race, but rather to create a narrative that Trump is leading so he can claim it was stolen when he loses.

The Harvard poll was a national poll (which showed a Harris lead BTW) so any comments they may have made regarding swing states based on that poll can be ignored since they didn't poll the swing states. Note: Mark Penn is chairman of that poll which immediately explains their analysis of the poll as being more favorable to Trump even though the actual numbers show otherwise. As for Penn saying that early voting in swing states favors Trump, that is a big pile of BS. All independent analyses of early voting so far have been favorable to Democrats.

You need to stop worrying.

[pat_k]

36. Thx. I should have known better.

I wrote off silver awhile ago. Didn't realize Harris interactive was also on the dark side.

[Wiz Imp]

38. Hey, it's totally understandable to be concerned

I have a big anxiety problem myself (I take multiple medications for it) and it's been a struggle to not let the election impact me too much. So far, I've been able to hold up very well. About once every couple days I get this big feeling of dread, but then I read DU and other sources looking for some reasons to calm my nerves and it generally makes me feel much more positive rather quickly. I really like the overall sense of realistic optimism I see from most here. It definitely helps to reinforce my own feelings of cautious optimism.

[viasubsection]

24. FBI news today

Oy Gevalt!!! With the revisions.

Edit: Is it ok to mention that?

[B.See]

62. Welcome to DU.

[CousinIT]

30. But, what are you DOING? Calling voters? Canvassing to GOTV?

It helps with anxiety to do something towards the goal.

https://go.kamalaharris.com/?

https://go.kamalaharris.com/calls/

[pat_k]

37. Haven't been able to take a shift for a few weeks

I have a dog walking business and have been going pretty non-stop. Being exhausted and unable to do much recently is probably the real root of the problem. With boarding and drop-in vacation care on top of regular walks through mid-Nov, my schedule is a bit overwhelming.

[TBF]

42. That's quite a bit -

I'm surprised you have so much energy to worry about the polls.

[pat_k]

44. It would probably serve me to . . .

. . .change my listening habits while dog walking.... And maybe stop "peaking in" on DU.

[TBF]

45. If it helps Georgia early voting is "shattering" all previous records -

that is usually good for democrats because republicans try to keep folks from voting. We'll see if it holds up as more states start voting.

[lees1975]

51. Best way to forget polls, canvas.

And what I've seen doing it in Wisconsin, we are in great shape, way better than the polls think.

[marble falls]

34. It's never too hard to ignore a poll. Watching Kornaki is all I need to reenforce my disgust with polling.

[Self Esteem]

40. This is a very close election.

So, it's not absurd to draw anxiety from polls. I know some will have you believe Harris is poised for a blowout win but at this point, there is no indication of that happening.

There is indication of enthusiasm and that's good but enthusiasm is also very high on the Republicans' end too. In fact, enthusiasm is very polarized right now - with independents being the least enthused.

I'm not going to fill you with a false sense of security. Every interaction I've had the last few weeks with the party and the Harris campaign tells me they're expecting a very close race. I believe it's true. It's why Harris is spending so much time in the Blue Wall states this week and likely into the next two weeks too.

I think she wins. But I can't guarantee it. It's going to be tight. The hope is that the closer we get to the election, the last of the undecided voters realize Trump could win and back Harris.

[lees1975]

46. There are indications of a blow out.

Not specific to what pundits may be using, but Harris' fundraising, number of contributors and dollar amount, is a blow out, and that has indeed been one way of predicting election outcomes in the past.

Independents, by nature, are people not enthused by politics. That doesn't mean they are predictors of how an election will go.

Nice list of national polls out today showing Harris moving up and away from Trump, stuck or losing ground.

[Self Esteem]

48. I think a blowout is very unlikely.

But I guess it depends on what people consider blowout.

I think this election is going to be similar to 2020: Harris wins the popular vote by 3-4 points and carries the electoral college but the outcome of the swing states will be close.

[lees1975]

50. 53-47 would be a blowout. And that's what I think she'll get.

Over 300 electoral votes, 318 probably.

[Self Esteem]

55. I think your electoral college count is possible. Not the popular vote, tho.

But even at over 300, I would be hard-pressed to call it a blowout if it's similar to Biden's margins in 2020 where he essentially won the EC by 43,000 votes across three states.

[Matthew28]

43. ,

Link to tweet

[GreenWave]

47. When the landslide hits, many will then realize how corrupt the owners of media are.

Why should we expect anything else from the media?

Do they tell us the oopsie poll about Trump ahead in Pennsylvania because they reduced Philadelphia to a mere trickle?

Or way too many neophyte (plausible deniability embedded) GOP paid pollster polls included in the mix.

They fail to say how many GOP voters died from COVID. How many GOP voters are deserting Trump? How many women are pissed off at the GOP?

You start to add these things up and GOP piddly dee things do not add up to overwhelming numbers.

Huge first day early voting bodes very ill for GOP.

[Poiuyt]

49. Allan Lichtman says to ignore the polls - he's still predicting Kamala wins!

[BeyondGeography]

53. Mark Penn is famously stupid

If it helps David Plouffe told Dan Pfeiffer two days ago that the early vote demos were reassuring and in line with the campaign’s expectations and he’s not one to sugarcoat things.

[The Roux Comes First]

54. But You Must, Even If Only to Protect Your Loved Ones!

[Klarkashton]

56. Im the recent past we had a red wave and Newsom

Recall that the media made dire predictions about.
Cook Report was the biggest promoter.

[Politicub]

57. Take Michelle Obama's advice

Do something. Don’t just sit and fret. That’s useless, and the only one who cares is you. Betting markets? Oh please.

That something doesn’t even have to be related to a campaign. Go outside. Cook. Garden. Just do something to stop spiraling.

And if you want an amazing jolt of confidence, volunteer for the campaign. Volunteer for people in local races. People are enthusiastic and all-in for Harris. Their positive attitudes are infectious. Sign up to send texts or make calls. If those things don’t mesh with your personality, find something to do that does.

[waterwatcher123]

58. The polls have been incredibly poor for years. It is worse when many of them are paid for by right wingers.

What is important that no one seems to be talking about is that many states do not count early or absentee votes until after election day votes are cast (varies by state). Donald Trump declared victory in 2020 because he could point to cherry-picked polls, large rallies and leads he had on election day. His strategy was to declare victory and then blather on endlessly about how the election was being stolen by Democrats when those early votes were added after election day totals. Trump is going to do it again and now he has these polls, many of which are paid for by his own campaign or surrogates, to help bolster his public pronouncements. Someone must explain to the American people that early election day results are not necessarily indicative of how the election will turn out.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/04/03/opinion/why-are-presidential-polls-wrong-biden-trump/
https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/
https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/election-polls-are-95-confident-but-only-60-accurate-berkeley-haas-study-finds/#

[Bev54]

59. Not hard at all.

[SergeStorms]

60. If Harris were running agaist Putin himself......

the vast majority of polls would have the race as a dead-heat or within the margin of error. Why? Because it's in their interest to do so. What would be the benefit of them telling the truth? No one would pay attention to them anymore, and that's not good for business, and they are businesses.

I used to be addicted to polls at one time as well. The angst isn't worth it. They mean little, to nothing. Just do everything you can possibly do to get Kamala elected. If you find yourself feeling anxious, make phone calls or write letters/cards to uncommitted voters. Do something positive instead of dwelling on negative thoughts.

Everything will be alright. I promise. 😉