8 National Polls Released in the past 2 days

[Wiz Imp]

Margin Poll Date
4% Economist / YouGov 10/16/2024
3% Fairleigh Dickinson 10/16/2024
5% Marist Poll 10/16/2024
0% Marquette Law School 10/16/2024
4% TIPP Insights 10/16/2024
4% Morning Consult 10/15/2024
3% Reuters / Ipsos 10/15/2024
3% TIPP Insights 10/15/2024

Note that the Marquette poll is an outlier showing a tie. I wouldn't fret about that. All 7 others show a Harris lead of at least 3%, the average margin of those 7 is just under 4%. So for people nervous about media saying that Trump is leading, this should be definitive proof that Trump is not only behind, but the typical national poll over the past 2 days shows Harris actually expanding her lead.

As for the state polls, keep in mind, there are numerous right wing state polls flooding the market so the margins look better for Trump than likely reality. 538 filters out some of the right wing polls but still includes a bunch of them (including Fabrizio which was actually paid for by Trump). Even with numerous questionable right wing polls included, 538 currently shows Harris leads in PA, MI, WI & NV and deficits of just 1% in GA & NC & 1.5% in AZ.

[Takket]

1. We'd be popping champagne already if not for the electoral college

But because of that, we will be coming down to the wire.

[lees1975]

5. I don't think it will be as close as the media wants us to believe.

Check the fund raising records and see how many contributors and how much money she has raised state by state. It's spectacularly better than the orange headed buffoon has done, including the PAC money. Citizens United has blown up in the Republican's faces. And she continues to haul it in.

Last time a candidate was outraised by this much, per capita, Ronald Reagan won a landslide.

[Emile]

8. With all the republicans vocally coming out in support of Kamala

this will be a landslide victory for Harris.

[peppertree]

11. Hear, hear. Needy Amin's only hope, is that his minions might 12th-amendment the presidency to him

In other words, a coup.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Marquette Law LV all candidates included was Harris +3

But yeah, the more reputable pollsters dropped some new polls this week and they all show Harris ahead,. Marist showed her +5 when it was +2 a couple weeks ago.

She might have regained some momentum. Also still leads in MI, WI, PA, and NV.

[ProfessorGAC]

3. A Curiosity

Agree that MLS appears to be an outlier, but:
What is a law school doing an election poll for?
Marquette offers statistics degrees. They offer social science degrees. They offer poly-sci degrees. I think they offer journalism degrees.
Why would the law school even be involved? There's no expertise in this arena at the law school, but they have academic disciplines that would.
I just find it weird that the poll being conducted by an outfit out their element is the only one shoeing a different result.
Things that make me go "Hmmmm".

[Wiz Imp]

4. Note also: Trump tops 47% only in Marquette poll, Harris is at 50% or more in 5 of the 8, 49% in 2 others

Her low mark of 47% corresponds to Trump's top mark in any of the polls except Marquette. Still looking like Trump's overall ceiling is about 47%.

[Wounded Bear]

10. I always love when she hits 50% + in polls. Closest to a "sure thing" in polling...

[Poiuyt]

6. Marquette's web site has Harris 48%, Trump 47%

[Wiz Imp]

7. I pulled this off of 270 to win's main page since they had it formatted the best

Apparently, they used the Marquette result which forced everyone to choose between either Harris or Trump. It was 50% to 50%. If others are included, apparently Harris still leads.

What this means is for voters who haven't fully committed to a candidate yet, Trump leads. The byproduct of this is that there is a larger block of possible or probable Trump voters who may still be able to be persuaded to vote for Harris.

Looking at the crosstabs I see something else interesting. Trump's job approval as President in this poll was 50%. I highly doubt anywhere near 50% of all voters would currently have a favorable view of Trump's Presidency. This implies the sample may be slightly skewed to the right.

[appleannie1]

9. Many people are like me when it comes to polls.

I don't answer any calls that I don't recognize the number or name. I figure if it is important, they will leave a message for me to call them back. Therefore, I never have to deal with polls. I just vote. Plus it used to be you could put signs in your yard or bumper stickers on your car without fear of retribution. Those days are gone since the orange blob came on the scene and I neither want my home to be damaged or my car to be keyed so I don't do either. I believe a lot of people feel like I do and so, on election day, it won't be as close as they are saying.

[oldmanlynn]

12. To be clear national polls dont mean alot

Its the battleground state polls that mean the most.

I believe Harris leads by more than what the polls suggest. Younger voters are answering their phones to do a poll and likewise other demographics aren’t picking up their phones to do polls.

[Wiz Imp]

15. Right, but they are still an important indicator

Keith Olbermann on his podcast about a week ago talked about Nate Silver's forecast relating popular vote percentages to electoral college chances. (I know, I know - I don't trust Silver at this point either, but I figure a forecast like this is unlikely to be super biased).

Silver says a Harris popular win by one percent would still give Trump an eighty nine percent chance in the electoral College.

Harris by anywhere from one point to two points, Trump is still a sixty nine percent favorite.

Two points to three points for Harris, nearly thirty eight percent chance of Trump winning in the EC (meaning Harris has a 62% chance)

Above three percent, Trump begins to expire thirteen and a half percent. Trump. (meaning Harris at 86.5%)

In the three to four range, Harris wins by four percent or four point one percent, or four point two whatever. Her electoral college chance is ninety six point six percent.

If she gets to five points in the popular vote, her chances in the electoral college rise above ninety nine percent.

Note: the average of the new national polls is between 3% & 4% so that would translate into a better than 86% chance for Harris.
Even if we just look at the individual polls, we're looking at 3% at the low end so that still translates to 62% chance for Harris. Bottom line, these national polls - and especially the fact that basically all of them show a 3 to 5% margin - is a really good sign for Harris at this stage.

[JCMach1]

17. I think they do. I would pay no attention to state poll

Breakdowns within national sampling unless it has Harris up by 4% or more.

Otherwise, it has oversampled MAGA/Conservative voters.

Doesn't mean Trump cannot win, but I see no way he gets above a maximum.of 46% nationally.

[AllyCat]

13. I actually did that YouGov poll!

[yellowcanine]

14. From other elections I seem to remember state polls trail national polls.

Don't remember why but I do remember that.

[Wiz Imp]

16. I think that's right. Polling companies that do both national & state polls tend to do the national polls first then

follow up with state polls.