WaPo: 'Off the charts:' How Trump tariffs would shock U.S., world economies

[Dennis Donovan]

WaPo (archived) - ‘Off the charts:’ How Trump tariffs would shock U.S., world economies

If implemented, the former president’s tariff plans would lead to higher costs, stock market volatility and feuds with the rest of the world.

By Jeff Stein and David J. Lynch
October 16, 2024 at 6:00 a.m. EDT

Former president Donald Trump is campaigning on the most significant increase in tariffs in close to a century, preparing an attack on the international trade order that is likely to raise prices, hurt the stock market and spark economic feuds with much of the world.

Trump’s trade plans, a staple of his stump speeches, have fluctuated, but he consistently calls for steep duties to discourage imports and promote domestic production. The former president has floated “automatic” tariffs of 10 percent to 20 percent on every U.S. trading partner, 60 percent levies on goods from China, and rates as high as 100, 200 or even 1,000 percent in other circumstances.

These proposals would go far beyond the disruptive trade wars of his first term even if they are only partially implemented. They would wrench the nation out of the system of global interdependence that arose in recent decades, making the U.S. economy much more isolated and autonomous, like it was in the late 19th century. (Trump last week falsely claimed that the United States was never richer than in the 1890s, when it had high trade barriers.)

“To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff. And it’s my favorite,” Trump said in Chicago on Tuesday. “I'm a believer in tariffs.”

The consequences would be far-reaching: Americans would be hit by higher prices for grocery staples from abroad, such as fruit, vegetables and coffee. Domestic firms dependent on imports would need to either figure out new supply chains or raise costs for consumers. U.S. manufacturers would almost certainly see sharp declines in orders from abroad as foreign nations impose retaliatory tariffs.

/snip

[-misanthroptimist]

1. Trump's tariffs will cause Great Depression II

'Nuff said.

[durablend]

2. And the rich will buy ALL the properties for pennies on the dollar

Leaving the rest of us in permanent serfdom. Sounds like a win-win for them.

[-misanthroptimist]

4. It is a win-win

Until, in the words of Groucho Marx, they "put them up against the wall and *POP* goes the weasel."

[Javaman]

10. worse. the great collapse. nt

[twodogsbarking]

3. It is a world economy. We must adapt and obviously Genghis Don is not the one.

[Picaro]

5. My concern is that this is resonating with the stupids

[applegrove]

6. When will the other shoe drop? The one where

Trump says they'll be no income tax any longer?

[everyonematters]

7. This could very well throw the country and the world into a recession.

The immediate impact of any increase in tariffs, is an increase in prices. A dramatic increase in tariffs means a dramatic decrease in demand. A dramatic decrease in demand means a dramatic decrease in employment. This points to a recession. Any positive impacts are delayed. For instance: a foreign producer can't immediately put up a factory and start producing. A national producer can't immediately increase production. That's why increases in tariffs need to be targeted and incremental.

[not fooled]

8. He wants to create chaos on a global scale

He--or someone close to him, e.g. "Hi, Scrofulous Steve"--figured out how to do it without a shooting war.

[onlyadream]

9. He thinks it will bring back factories

So Trump thinks putting tariffs on goods will force companies to put factories in the USA. Now, with more thought on this, factory jobs are low paying jobs (and then there's the possibility of automation). Who typically works low paying jobs? Immigrants. We all liked cheap stuff from China bc they have terrible labor laws and little regulations. If we did bring these factories here, even if Americans take the low paying factory jobs, the items will still cost more. At that point we become like it was in the 70s. We just stop consuming so much. And that will affect the economy (not in a good way).

[Jmb 4 Harris-Walz]

11. There is something off about everything TSF is doing right now...

He’s insulting so many people and groups that it just doesn’t make sense.

Is it possible he WANTS to lose and HARRIS win by a landslide? Then turn around and accuse the BIDEN/HARRIS Administration of foul play; that there is no way he could have lost by so much; they had to cheat! Sues all the way up to the Supreme Court who declares him the winner?

It sounds outlandish, but he IS outlandish. These republicans have a plan I have no doubt. The only question is what that plan is.

[Evolve Dammit]

12. What an asshole. Come up with a better favorite word....

[kwolf68]

13. I don't get how he has no one smart to advise him on this

Trump is obviously a dingus who doesn't know shit about shit, but to be sure there is an economist in his inner circle to advise him.

NOW, THERE ARE TIMES when I do believe a tariff is needed (for instance when foreign good production costs are externalized, and our own US companies have to internalize costs of production), but as a general rule they are nothing more than a fat ass tax on consumable goods, many of which American companies may not even compete against/market.

Even if you assume avoiding the more complicated argument FOR tariffs I made above, the fact is THEY ARE A TAX, in EVERY situation. What the hell does he think that will lead to? Did anyone tell him?

My concern is people are dumb and all they will hear is "im gonna do tariffs and it will bring utopia to the planet and make american great again.". Solved, I love tariffs.