So Donald Trump wants to bring all of these manufacturing jobs back to the US. using tarriffs. One problem.

[OAITW r.2.0]

We have what is literally "full employment" now. Who is going to fill all of these manufacturing jobs?

[WarGamer]

1. Trumps understanding of tariffs is misguided.

Increasing tariffs will directly lower quality of life for lower and mid income families.

Example:

LED TV sets...

Nowadays you can get a badass 85" tv... made in China for around $679

Just 10 years ago... $679 would have bought a 65"

It's insane to thinkt the US is going to start mfg LED TV sets.

And if they do... they'll be $5000

Just like iPhones... according to studies, it'd cost 2x as much as the imports.

Free markets and competitive markets increase the quality of life for most Americans.

[Wiz Imp]

25. Exactly

If he puts a 200% tariff on TVs, that 85" TV from China now costs close to $1400. So let's assume they move the manufacturing back to the US. How much are the TVs made in the US gonna cost? Hint: it's not gonna save US consumers any money. Those US manufactured TVs are still gonna cost at least $1400 and probably more. So how is that gonna help everyday Americans? It isn't - it will cause inflation to skyrocket.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Trump lost manufacturing jobs.

Even before Covid.

Biden/Harris added more manufacturing jobs than any administration in a generation. Jobs were actually onshore, brought back to the US.

[OAITW r.2.0]

4. I agree...but when unemployment is running at 5%, there aren't a lot of people

Last edited Tue Oct 15, 2024, 07:45 PM - Edit history (1)

available to fill all of these new jobs. Traditionally, 95% is considered full employment, 5% are always moving, changing jobs, etc. If you were an OEM facing these tarriffs and considering bringing jobs back to the US....where are you going to find the people to take these jobs? I am sure that there would be some who might quit their current jobs, but are we really going to open new factories to make nuts and bolts? Pretty doubtful, IMHO.

[Johnny2X2X]

9. The OEMs overseas pay no tariffs

It’s the importers who pay them and pass the expense along to the public. And 10% cost added to something isn’t going to cause any firms to come back to the US.

Biden has done it right. Investing in our own manufacturing is what brought the jobs.

[OAITW r.2.0]

10. OEMs overseas don't pay the tariffs, the importers do.

And they pass these tariffs on to the consumer. Lets assume Trump collects all those tariffs....how does the USG figure out how to offer tax credits, equitably, to the consumers impacted? Answer, they really can't.

[former9thward]

15. There are people.

The people currently working at low pay, no benefit jobs move to decent paying, benefits jobs that manufacturing has.

[OAITW r.2.0]

18. No doubt, they leave their current jobs, making another job opening.

Like a nuclear chain reaction, a complete disruption of the US economy. In fact, it will introduce a whole lot of chaos into our economy. We are still at full employment and if we truly take Trump at his word, we are going to have to find 30MM or so Americans (no immigrants!) to take these jobs. HR folks are going to be busy trying to find applicants.

We could always reduce the employment age to 12, though.

[former9thward]

21. Right, let's keep a huge underclass of scores of millions.

To serve those lucky enough to have professional jobs or being retired from one. We certainly would not want to "disrupt the economy". I am old enough to remember when we had the same unemployment numbers with Trump that people on this site denounced it as low paying jobs. Times change, don't they?

[OAITW r.2.0]

26. Not the point of my thread. How does Trump plan for 100% tarrifs square with a needed labor

pool of 30MM available? No immigrants! In fact, we'll ship 10MM people out of the country if Trump is elected. You seem to support the Trump agenda, so help me understand what the Trump/Putin plan is for Making America Great Again when we fix the current US economy.

[former9thward]

31. You seem to equate tariffs with a "Trump agenda"

Which tells me you know nothing about the Biden economic agenda or you are willfully ignoring it.

[Wiz Imp]

32. So where will those 30 million workers come from?

[former9thward]

38. I don't care.

You seem to. We have had tariffs since George Washington. Clinton had them, Obama had them. I don't remember the complaints then. LBJ imposed a tariff on what became the EU for any pick-up truck made in those countries. Every president since then has re-imposed it. That tariff raises the price of American made pick-ups. Yet the country seems to survive.

[Wiz Imp]

39. You don't care that we would have a 30 million shortage of workers?

You really think your quality of life will be able to be maintained if there are millions of jobs unfilled? You know many of those would be for services you take for granted? So how is that work going to get done?

And yes, all or almost all Presidents have imposed some tariffs. The difference is they ALL did it selectively. Trumps one and only economic plan is to put tariffs out the wazoo on all foreign goods and that will create the best economy in the world and the US would be swimming in money. Of course that is insane. First of all he has no idea how tariffs work. Second of all, even if they did work like he envisions them, the results would be as described here - super high inflation and/or massive worker shortages. None of this would improve the quality of life of the average American.

[former9thward]

40. No, they did NOT do it selectively.

Tariffs at one point were on any product coming into the U.S. That is how the federal government financed itself before WW I. Then they gradually substituted the income tax. You are simply wrong on economics. The system always adjusts.

[Wiz Imp]

43. They weren't automatically 200% or more on everything like Trump has largely proposed.

Washington's tariffs were 5% on most things but not everything. Rates generally increased as time went on but they generally varied and were not a flat rate on everything - that means it was selective. And while tariffs may have been imposed on most imports, there were always exceptions.

But all that is beside the point which you continue to ignore. The point again, nobody ever based their entire economic policy on tariffs like Trump wants to do. And I haven't even talked about how his plans would affect Exports. The entire point is Trump knows nothing about economics and the only plans he has proposed would be disastrous. I'm glad you have such a high opinion of yourself that you think you know more than me about economics. You DON'T.

[OAITW r.2.0]

33. Gotcha! Biden's at fault.

So, you don't comment on Trump's plan for tariff's but you are concerned about Biden's current tariffs....that no one seems to oppose. Thanks for posting! No need for further comment.

[former9thward]

37. I support the Biden tariffs.

YMMV. Unlike some who don't seem to think they exist. No need for further comment.

[Wiz Imp]

27. As those lower paid workers move into higher paid manufacturing jobs - there is still a shortage of workers for those

lower paid jobs. So companies will have to raise the wages of those jobs to compete for workers. But then, those companies will have to raise additional revenue to be able to afford those higher wages. And how do they do that? That's right, they raise prices which causes inflation to skyrocket. So how does that help average everyday Americans?

[former9thward]

30. That is an argument free market CEOs use.

Not me.

[OAITW r.2.0]

34. But those "lower paying jobs" get unfilled, because they all quit and got manufacturing jobs,

No one's left to fill, because Trump is making sure all migrants go away. Oh boy, that's gonna impact on our everyday life.

[Wiz Imp]

35. Right. At the lowest levels, there will be no workers.

Those are mostly your lowest paid jobs - like farm workers and service workers. Gee, wouldn't that be great if we had no farm workers or service workers? As you say, that would certainly make life more interesting (but not in a good way).

[OAITW r.2.0]

42. You can raise wages, but where are the available workers?

There are none, unless you support immigration or lower the age for children to enter the workforce.

[Wiz Imp]

45. Right. If you have an economy that requires X number of workers but you only have Y

Then you may enable some of the lower paid workers to move to higher paid jobs, or force some employers to raise wages, but in the end, you're still X-Y workers short. Lowering the working age should be an automatic no go for the most part, so that leaves immigration - you're going to need immigrants to fill those jobs.

We are already in that situation. If all current immigrants were deported, it would have a massive negative impact on the economy and society in general.

[OAITW r.2.0]

46. Plus we could use a shitload of construction worker immigrants repairing/building a 2025 climate change reality.

[mymomwasright]

3. Will the companies be willing to pay workers $20+ and hour?

Doubt it!

[OAITW r.2.0]

7. Exactly....either way, we will pay more...a lot more.

[Klarkashton]

5. He can't point to one concrete example where his tariffs

Worked to bring factories here.
He touts a lot of bullshit stories about some guy that did this or that without naming anyone but absolutely no facts.

It's all country club rich guy shit talk.

[former9thward]

16. It is unions who want tariffs.

That is the reason Biden has imposed tariffs against China and others. The county club is completely opposed to them.

[OAITW r.2.0]

29. Targeted tariffs to protect against anti-dumping is OK with me.

We see it in basic industries like structural aluminum, solar panels, etc. Union's job is to maximize their union contract. I think getting into an international tariff war will kill a lot of our hi-value industries that own the world markets today, but those aren't directly union jobs.

[LogDog75]

6. If he's going to back these manufacturing jobs, the question to ask him is....

Have you brought your Chinese made clothing brand back to the U.S.?"

[Klarkashton]

8. Or those Bibles?

[Wiz Imp]

28. Manufacture those Bibles in the US? Then he couldn't sell them for a 2000% markup anymore.

[BWdem4life]

11. Might have to bring some over from Haitia. nt

[2naSalit]

13. And what about the...

Azurasians? They could do some of it.

[OAITW r.2.0]

14. LOL, he'll have to let a lot of immigrants into the country if we want to be 100% manufacturing capable.

But, at the same time, guess what happens with our exports? It's gonna be a lot more expensive for US manufacturer's to sell their products world-wide.

The Trump economic vision is a disaster for us, domestically, and internationally.


I'm thinking this is a talking point that Putin wants the US to follow. Thus, Trump's trumpeting this policy.

[former9thward]

17. What about the Biden tariffs?

How are they different?

[OAITW r.2.0]

19. Already dialed in, so not an issue.

And I know...it's killing my business importing aluminum extrusions and die castings from India for OEM/industrials US customers. But, I'm in the wind down phase of my business life. Started in manufacturing back in the early 70's. Saw the writing on the wall with US manufacturing in the early 80's when GE moved their Industrial electric motor business from MA to Mexico. Started my own import business in China in 2000 with partners, 2 who live in Zhongshan, PRC.

I've seen it all, so far.

[2naSalit]

12. The babies...

All those kids will have to work for their formula and diaper changes.

[lindysalsagal]

20. He's just making promises to stay out of prison.

[edhopper]

22. Immigrants

Oh...wait!

[Initech]

23. I'm willing to guess and say that he has literally zero clue how tariffs actually work.

And only knows the myths of tariffs because that's what Fox News feeds what's left of his brain every night.

[jmowreader]

24. More problems

Problem 1: it takes a long time to set up a factory. Assuming you can find a building big enough to hold the factory, you've got to run new electrical, water, air and vacuum lines, get rid of the wildlife currently in residence there, buy machines, etc., etc., etc...and that doesn't even count the training time needed to get up to speed.

Problem 2: much of the equipment you need for a factory is made overseas. I watch a YouTube channel where the guy on it is "trying to bring manufacturing back to America." He's a good guy and means well; his plant is full of Korean and European machines. There are a few manufacturers of this equipment in the US, but there's no way they can serve all the new factories Trump wants.

Problem 3: Lights-out manufacturing. Building a factory today doesn't necessarily mean hiring anyone to work in it. It is completely possible, and is being done right now, to build a factory where all the machines work with no human intervention. You might have ONE maintenance person in the building to monitor all the machines from a control room and fix anything the machines can't fix themselves, but other than that...no workers.

Problem 4: even if you build this no-worker factory your prices will still be higher than overseas because someone has to pay for all that neat shit - and it'll be the customers.

Problem 5: Trump will probably keel over from whatever diseases hamberder-fed 80-year-old men get long before any of these factories are running.

And...

Problem 6: Trump is going to get beat like a rug in November so it won't matter anyway.

[OAITW r.2.0]

36. Institutional knowledge. I started in manufacturing in the 70's.

Mindless production jobs -> machine tool operator/set-up -> QC -> Purchasing ->International Sourcing. We have a generation removed from real world manufacturing. You don't get that back in a few months.

[keithbvadu2]

41. How many Trump family mfg products jobs has he brought back to America?

[Wiz Imp]

44. I'm going to guess none.

[Maeve]

47. And wait til he deports a few million workers!

[republianmushroom]

48. With republican economics we will not have full employment, as we have now,

remember the convicted felons economic 4 to 8 years ago. How does "trickle down" work for you ?