For NBC and kornacki pushing their national poll as some sort of evidence that Harris is losing steam, how do they know

[JohnSJ]

this one poll is any more accurate than their previous poll which showed Harris leading by 4 points but within their MOE?

It may say is nothing has changed, yet the pundits seem to frame negativity against Harris.

They also say the polls reflect less African American support than Biden had in 2020. Really?

Really?

The pollsters tell us they are making "adjustments" to account for more trump support than accounted for in 2016 and 2020.

and just how are they doing that?

2016 shouldn't even be included because of what Comey did 11 days before the general election, and as far as 2020 is concerned, I don't recall anyone predict a landslide victory for Biden. It was always close.

What I do recall was in 2022 most of the pollsters and pundits predicted a "red wave", which didn't materialize, and then they made all kinds of excuses how it was because "trump's endorsements were damaged goods".

Now for 2024 they are saying they want to make sure they are not "underrepresenting trump support", so they are adding "adjustments" to their polling.

So after 2016, 2020, 2022, they are now adding "adjustments to their polling".

The reality is, 2016, 2020, and 2022 in general were close elections, and probably 2024 will be the same.

Of course if their excuse in 2022 that the reason there was no "red wave" was because trump was damaged goods, I don't really see where that has changed, yet they seem to be contradicting that, and say that trump "isn't damaged goods"

I don't have to be a pollster to predict if we have a large turnout among Democrats, progressives, women, African Americans, and other minority groups we will win, both the popular vote and those critical swing states.

The biggest concern I have is the real effort of republicans trying to disenfranchise Democratic votes.

[GoCubsGo]

1. ABC is also pushing the "dead heat" crap.

"Harris is losing steam." Blah, blah, blah. I hope this "horse race" bullshit backfires on them, and drives up the Democratic GOTV to record turn-out.

[JohnSJ]

2. I assume it is close because that is what 2016 and 2020 were. However, as I said, and as you are saying if we have

a huge GOTV turnout among Democrats, women, African Americans, progressives, and minorities, we will win.

[JohnSJ]

4. I don't think so, and these same polls seem to reflect that women's health, and the right to choose is a big deal the

majority of women.

[Lovie777]

5. They will........................

combination of all walks of life, all ages and all races and religion. It's just not abortion, nor civil rights, nor women's rights, voting rights, Society Security, Medicare, Medicaid, healthcare, etc....................

It's about "Freedom", as well.

[Gaytano70]

6. FUCK. ALL. MEDIA.

That is all. Thank you.

[Xoan]

7. polls for trolls.

ignore them.

[Wiz Imp]

8. Based on what's listed on 270towin

The last national poll to show Trump with a lead was a full month ago from AtlasIntel (a right wing pollster which does not have a positive reputation). During the past month only 4 polls (out of 44) even showed the race tied. That includes the NBC poll which was of registered voters meaning it probably under states Harris' support.

For the life of me, I can't figure out how any sane person could possibly translate that into Harris is "losing steam" or that the race is a "dead heat".

Without commenting on the reliability of the polls, it is totally fair to say it remains a close race, but the national polling has shown the margins very stable for over a month now.

Yes, the swing state polls have tightened but that can be traced directly to the heavy influx of "red wave" polls since the beginning of October.

[LiberalFighter]

9. You made a few important points. Top one is...

Now for 2024 they are saying they want to make sure they are not "underrepresenting trump support", so they are adding "adjustments" to their polling.

Did they adjust for more Republicans died from Covid than Democrats? Did they adjust for the 65 and older becoming more liberal?


I also find Kornacki's analysis of the polls do not connect. It appears to me he just pulls out parts of it to justify the assessment.

[kcr]

10. The Red Wave BS is a major reason

why I believe the polls are inaccurate.

[lees1975]

11. If "losing steam" is having to turn away almost as many rally attenders as can be let inside the venues

and having a higher percentage of early voters already headed to the polls, then I guess she's losing steam. Otherwise, this is a poll, and it is an outlier when compared to other polls in the same time period.

The polls and pundits already have one achievement from their worked up, phony negativity and baseless polling data in putting pressure on Biden to step aside. If you believe for one minute that wasn't a media manipulation, and that he wasn't going to win this election, you're drinking the koolaide.

Do yourself a favor. Turn the networks off and find some good, independent, non-profit, media sources. It will be good for your mental health and you will be better informed by a free press.