The NBC poll showing the race as even is an outlier

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

It only polled 1000 people and it's 5 days old. The lamestream media keeps pushing it like it's late breaking news/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

1. Thank you.

[Meadowoak]

2. Bullshit. They just need a horserace for ratings and donations.

[lindysalsagal]

3. This happens every year.

[Klarkashton]

4. It was the headline on my att email log in page.

I'm sure everywhere else too.

[Silent Type]

5. Like every poll, it's another data point even if we choose to ignore it. I'd just as soon see polls, as not. Then, judg

Personally, don't feel the polls are correct right now, but maybe there are more vile white wingers and sympathizers than even this Southerner believes.

I feel Harris will roll. But, I want poll results to know whether I should refill my Xanax.

[Quixote1818]

6. They also admit they are just guessing. See here.

2024 Election
How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results
A few percentage points of difference in turnout by gender or education can produce very different results, both in election polls and in elections themselves.
Trump Harris Presidential Debate
Former President Donald Trump shakes hands with Vice President Kamala Harris during a presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia on Sept. 10.Saul Loeb / AFP - Getty Images


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Oct. 13, 2024, 7:00 AM MDT
By Ben Kamisar and Mark Murray
Close elections always come down to turnout. And while there remain a lot of unknowns ahead of November’s presidential election, one thing seems almost certain: It’s going to be close, at least in many of the key states that will decide the election.

So the bipartisan polling team behind the NBC News poll, Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates, devised an experiment.

What happens to the ballot test in NBC News’ brand-new national poll when you assume a turnout model that benefits the Democratic Party versus one that favors the GOP?

The results won’t be much of a surprise. But the exercise is instructive, showing how relatively small shifts in the demographic makeup of the electorate could prove important in a close election.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied on the head-to-head ballot in the new October NBC News poll results, at 48% each.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/different-turnout-models-change-nbc-news-poll-results-rcna175096

[Wiz Imp]

7. The other issue is it was Registered Voters

Nobody should really be polling registered voters at this point, it should be likely voters. And Harris has pretty consistently been polling better with likely voters than registered voters. (At least 1 to 2 points better)

[Deminpenn]

18. Noticed that, too

Usually by this time, pollsters switch to LV models.

I have no doubt the poll results are designed to keep the "horserace" narrative going until, and after, election day. The non-stop focus on PA tells me the cable/network plan is to not call PA until long after the votes have been counted.

[GreenWave]

8. Are they yet again vastly underrepresenting Big Blue cities?

[RidinWithHarris]

9. 1000 people is a perfectly reasonable sample size. There might be other flaws in the poll...

...and it could just be randomly bad (one out of 20 polls will fall outside the typical 95% confidence standards purely by chance), but criticizing the sample size here is not warranted.

[RJ_MacReady]

10. sure can

There are nearly 200m registered voters. This isn't 30 years ago. With thr advent of cell phones and people not answer sample sizes need to increase greatly.

[RidinWithHarris]

12. The number of registered voters is such that a sample size of 1000 is good enough...

...for a 3% margin of error at 95% confidence. This is math, not opinion. A sample size of 10000 would get that down to 1%, but it's an expensive matter of diminishing returns to increase sample sizes. These numbers come out nearly the same even when the voting population is only one million -- the number of actual voters compared to the sample size doesn't matter as much as perhaps you think it does.

Besides, there are difficult-to-quantify sources of error beyond the statistical confidence interval that can easily swamp that uncertainty and which aren't greatly helped by increasing sample size (such as any possible correlation between availability and willingness to respond to pollsters and political affiliation).

https://goodcalculators.com/margin-of-error-calculator/

[Mountainguy]

17. If there is a response bias

Then increasing the sample size won't help.

[MFM008]

11. These polling organizations

Are purposely putting polls out that are lower for her to lower the polling averages to "tied" they do it every election especially where maggot is involved.

[Dem4life1234]

13. They love that horse race meme

When in any sane and developed country, a POS like him shouldn't even be running.

Fuck these people.

Still reminds us that we should not be complacent.

[Prairie Gates]

14. Oy vey

[Dem4life1234]

15. Who under the age of 55 answers phone calls from marketers?

I sure as fuck don't.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

16. I'm 67

If I don't know the person calling I don't answer. Let them leave a voice mail and I'll consider calling back.