BTRTN 2024 Election Snapshot #5: An Impossibly Close Presidential Race Gets...Even Closer (Plus Senate, House Updates)
Born The Run The Numbers provides the latest its ongoing “BTRTN Election Snapshot” feature... the "snapshot" contains no predictions; it is simply a view of where the various races – presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial — stand at the current moment. We issue BTRTN Snapshot updates whenever a critical mass of new polling comes in.
https://borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/10/13/btrtn-2024-election-snapshot-5-an-impossibly-close-presidential-race-getseven-closer-plus-updates-of-all-senate-and-house-races/
Excerpts: "Presidential race: The race has taken on a bit of a strange turn marked by a singularly unusual feature – the disappearance of Donald Trump. The widening war in the Middle East, the blanket coverage of Hurricane Milton, the interview tour of Kamala Harris, the debut of Barack Obama on the campaign trail, Trump’s own decision to forego another debate and his understandable reluctance to do a bunch of rallies in the wake of two assassination attempts — all have had the effect of consigning Trump to the background.
The previously omnipresent Trump had been famously undisciplined in his campaign approach, time and again neglecting to pummel Harris on immigration and the economy, per his advisers’ pleas, instead focusing on 2020 election grievance, bizarre personal critiques of Harris (and Biden), Hannibal Lector and pet-eating Haitians. It’s almost as if shutting him down is a new strategy. And guess what: it’s working. Because an impossibly close race has gotten…even closer...
"Kamala Harris continues to hold a 3-point lead in the national polls, but the swing states are even tighter than before, which is hard to imagine. The polls show the two candidates are separated by a single point in four swing states and dead even in the other three. The prior relatively static condition of Harris leading by a nose in the North (MI, PA, WI) and Trump the same in the South (GA, NC) and West (AZ, NV) is dissolving. Every swing state is up for grabs. Our BTRTN model continues to show Harris with the narrowest of leads in a toss-up election at this moment. We have decreased her odds of winning just a tad, from 56% (from two weeks ago) to 52%. That’s very close to a coin flip."
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On election night, yes, we will have our figurative panties in a bunch, but we will win in a landslide with the popular vote and a comfortable amount of electoral votes.