Rosenberg: Red Wave pollsters step up their work this week

[Fiendish Thingy]

Red Wave Pollsters Stepped Up Their Work This Week - The red wavers stepped up their activity this past week, releasing at least 20 polls across the battlegrounds. It’s a sign that they are worried about the public polling in both the Presidential and the Senate, and have dramatically escalated their efforts to push the polling averages to the right and make the election look redder than it is. As in 2022, these polls usually between 2 and 4 points more Republican than the independent polling so when there a lot of them they can move the averages rightward.

Here is what was released in the past week:

Emerson - National, AZ, NC, PA
Cygnal - IA
Insider Advantage - AZ, GA, NC, NV
McLaughlin - FL
Mitchell Comms - MI
OnMessage - PA
Patriot Polling - PA
Remington - MI, MT, NV, PA, WI
RMG - National, FL, MI, NC, TX
Texas Gun Rights - TX
Trafalgar - MI, PA, WI
Victory Insights - FL
While they released polls in many states this week the states that have received the most red wave polls few weeks are Montana, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Over the past 10 days, depending on how you characterize the pollsters, they released at least 5 and as many 7 polls in Pennsylvania alone. Their recent flood of polls in NC and PA tipped the Real Clear Politics polling average for each state to Trump, which then in turn got Trump to 281 in their corrupt Electoral College map. Yes, in Real Clear Politics Trump is now winning the election due to their gamesmanship.

(Snip)

As I wrote in my last look at this rancid project, it is time for those who analyze polls to start acknowledging that there is now a third type of poll - the red wave, right-aligned narrative polling that only exist for a single purpose - to move the polling averages to the right. They are exploiting the “toss it in the averages and everything will work out philosophy” of these sites to once again launder these polls and game the averages - and thus our understanding of the election. Party leaders should expect them to keep these polls coming, and keep working the averages until it looks like Trump is winning in all polling averages. It is what they did in 2022, and it worked. They are doing it again this time, and once again it is working as the averages are moving and everyone is treating this movement like an organic rather than a deeply corrupt process.

Unless the aggregators suddenly start excluding Red Wave polls from their averages (RCP definitely won’t, and it’s highly unlikely 538 will either), it will mean polling averages from now until Election Day cannot be trusted.

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-hungry-harris-campaign-early

Additional essential reading on the current state of polling:

https://prospect.org/politics/2024-09-25-polling-imperilment/

The fact of the matter is, for the next 30 days we will essentially be flying blind, with only the knowledge that Harris has a superior GOTV ground game to comfort us.

[Lovie777]

1. Vote blue across board.....................

[Quiet Em]

2. That's a LOT of sketchy polls

They are putting a lot of effort into optics. It has to be part of their plan to claim the election was "rigged". Crazy.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. There's even more listed at the Hopium Chronicles site.

It’s literally a flood of shit- something like 20+ polls in the past week or so.

And it’s only going to get worse between now and the election.

[Towlie]

4. I would never disclose my affiliation to someone who knocks on my door and therefore knows where I live.

Nor would I respond to a phone call or text message if I wasn't sure where it was coming from. Call me paranoid but I'd only respond to a poll where I can remain anonymous because it worries me how vengeful and aggressive a magat can be. I have no political bumper stickers on my vehicle and below my door knocker I have a label saying "I voted already."

I wonder how many other Democrats do the same. If there are many of us then this would suggest that we're actually doing better than we appear to be in poll results, which might be a good thing because it would motivate us more.

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. The nonresponse rate is extremely high

Something like 20-25,000 calls to get a sample of 1500-2000 respondents.

[Sugarcoated]

5. Good to know

[Self Esteem]

6. I don't consider Emerson as a red-wave pollster.

...and certainly not a polling outfit I'd lump in with Patriot Polling or Texas Gun Rights.

[obamanut2012]

7. of course not

[Self Esteem]

13. Do you have any evidence they are?

In 2020, their final poll had Biden winning by five - right around his margin.

They had Biden +4 in Pennsylvania.

+7 in Michigan.

+8 in Wisconsin.

+2 in Arizona.

-1 in Georgia.

If anything, their state polling four years ago leaned way more left than the actual results.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. They don't skew as far right as those other fly-by-night outfits

But, IIRC, they have a history of significantly increasing their output in October, with a corresponding decrease in sample integrity.

[Elessar Zappa]

17. lol.

[Prairie Gates]

9. This Rosenberg thing is either going to be remarkably prescient

Or it's going to be in the dictionary next to "Whistling Past the Graveyard"

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. The Red Wave effect is hard fact, clearly documented in 2022

The size of its effect this year won’t be known until after the election.

[cilla4progress]

21. Same.

Are you familiar with his past prognostications?

[lindysalsagal]

12. Thanks. The following is a list that includes yours, and other well-known ringer pollsters.

American Greatness,
Daily Mail, co/efficent,
Cygnal,
Orbital Digital,
Echelon,
Emerson - National, AZ, NC, PAFabrizio,
Fox News,
Insider Advantage,
McLaughlin,
Mitchell Comms - MI
The Napolitan Institute.
Noble Predictive,
OnMessage - PA
Patriot Polling - PA
Public Opinion Stratgies,
Quantus,
Rasmussen,
Redfield & Wilton,
Remington,
RMG,
SoCal Data a
The Telegraph,
Texas Gun Rights -
TXTrafalgar,
TIPP,
Victory Insights,
Wall Street Journal

[angrychair]

14. This is dangerous thinking

When we start to say "nothing is real but what I say is real" we start sounding like them.
Sometimes it's just reality and reality sucks.
We have a seriously broken country full of hate and racism and misogyny and bigotry on xenophobia.
We should win but we also have to be prepared that we may not.

[obamanut2012]

15. Nobody said that

[Elessar Zappa]

16. Bullshit.

Simon Rosenberg knows what he’s talking about. This is a documented strategy by right wing polling outfits. You don’t believe it? Fine. Stew in your pessimism. Meanwhile, the rest of us will do the work of winning this election.

[Quiet Em]

18. I think we all know that,

but take away 2016, which was an anomaly, and we've been showing them with our votes.

We are not like them. We've been fighting back. And we've been winning.

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. You misunderstand the point

Rosenberg is saying (and Larry Sabato agrees) that polling is so broken it has no predictive value.

They have both provided evidence based analysis for this perspective.

The reality is that, while there are reputable pollsters with integrity who do their best under rapidly changing circumstances to conduct reliable polls, polls are being used by bad actors to manipulate averages and media narratives for the purpose of altering voters’ perceptions and expectations of the race.

The media is reporting on this as if it were an actual, organic shift in the race, rather than a corrupt illusion.

The same thing happened in 2022, when 538 projected the GOP would pick up 40+ seats in the house- how’d that forecast play out?

If the aggregators excluded the corrupt Red Wave polls from their averages, I wouldn’t be speaking out about this, but they’re not, and so my position still stands, and is supported by the evidence:

Between now and the election, polling averages cannot be trusted.

[angrychair]

20. I get the point

I clearly stated "we should win" but it is unequivocally a GOTV campaign. My bigger point is that polling isn't so broken that it doesn't clearly indicate that at least 40% of people like what trump is selling. They believe what he believes because they are voting for the guy with the vocabulary and diction of a brain damaged 10 yr old and the grasp of economics and foreign policy of a meth-addled racoon. That is the scary part.

We all loss because she should win but this country could still hand them the keys to Congress where the "government controls the weather" lady and a host of other freaks is likely to be again.
We are all losing our country, even if we win this election.

[senseandsensibility]

28. I don't understand your argument

You set up a position that no one is advocating and then opine about how the effects of such an argument would be counterproductive. Sounds like a straw man to me.

[krawhitham]

22. The non Red Wave polls look nearly as bad

[Fiendish Thingy]

23. Hardly

The only “bad” mainstream, non-Red Wave poll I’ve seen recently was the batch of Quinnipiac swing state polls earlier this week, which had Harris behind in WI and MI within the MOE. I suspect those polls may be outliers, as that trend hasn’t been repeated in any other recent mainstream polls I recall seeing. The Quinnipiac polls’ samples contained more republican respondents than Dems- I don’t know the registration breakdowns for the electorate in WI and MI, so don’t know if that sample was flawed or an accurate reflection of the electorate.

If you have any examples of “bad” non-Red Wave polls from the past week, please post some links.

[krawhitham]

25. You might want to look up recent polls from: NY Times/Siena, Quinnipiac, Emerson, Marist, Washington Post, & WSJ

[Fiendish Thingy]

30. did you cherry pick those as examples of "bad" (as in bad news for Harris) polls?

the deeply flawed NYT polls have been outliers all year, and, as I mentioned, the most recent Quinnipiac swing state polls seem out of step with current trends, and their samples have more republicans than dems.

The Emerson poll tends to have a slight republican house effect; Haven't seen the Marist poll. WaPo poll didn't have any earth shattering news AFAIK, and WSJ, while generally reliable, still has a republican lean.

Marist and WaPo haven't released a national poll in the past week, at least not one that is listed on 538.

Did you examine any of the cross tabs and methodology of these polls? What are the MOE's and sample make up?

Currently, the most recent polls in the 538 swing state averages are almost all Red Wave polls, with the exception of Quinnipiac, which is actually showing the largest swing to Trump, at least in the rust belt states.

[lees1975]

24. Just like the "red wave" of the Mid-terms.

Watch them scramble the week or two before the election to save their reputation like they've done the last two cycles.

[krawhitham]

26. The Polls never reflected a "red wave", it was just magats screaming "red wave"

[TheRickles]

27. Has anyone compiled a recent aggregate of the polls that were the most accurate over the last few cycles?

Not labeling them as red or blue pollsters, but just looking at the track record of the top 5 or so.

[SupportSanity]

29. Red Wave pollsters trying to move the polling averages ... (hmmmm.... looks at watch....) Right on time!

It's Deja Vu all over again.

[Fiendish Thingy]

31. Yeah, it's October, but this is not a surprise. nt

[wryter2000]

32. Some real data

Voter registration - do we routinely get information on party preference? I have certainly heard some data, such as a dramatic increase in young African Americans registering.

Early voting - do we get any information about who is voting early? It seems to me I've heard some.

Those are real behavioral data.

[Fiendish Thingy]

33. Not all states have registration by party

But yes, both registrant early voting can be tracked with verifiable numbers.

Early voting numbers are looking good, as far as requests for ballots by Dems vs republicans.