Poll: Most Americans say Trump should face prosecution over 2020 election

[muriel_volestrangler]

A new poll suggests that a majority of Americans support federal charges for former President Donald Trump linked to efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.

While that 54% support is starkly split along party lines — 95% of Democrats support prosecuting Trump, while 85% of Republicans do not — a preponderance of independents (57%) believe the former president should face charges, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University.
...
Nearly half of those surveyed (49%) said the federal charges had no impact on their view of Trump, with 37% responding that it made them think less of him, and 12% thinking more favorably. Among Republicans, 59% said it had no impact, with 28% finding him more favorable.
...
President Joe Biden enjoyed 72% support in the Democratic primary, and led Trump 47-46 in a head-to-head matchup, suggesting yet another close race.

https://spectrumnews1.com/ky/northern-ky/news/2023/08/16/trump-poll-indictment-dc-jack-smith

Jeez, the clear majority says "prosecute", but he's barely behind in a general election poll. Some voters are just ...

The poll results: https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3877

[JohnSJ]

1. I think that national polls are worthless. That isn't how presidents are elected. If it was,

Hillary would be President

[lees1975]

2. I see some skewed numbers here that make zero sense.

54% support prosecuting the orange haired buffoon, including a significant 57% of Independents. So there's something a little bit skewed there, because if 95% of the Democrats and 57% of the independents, which in the political makeup of the United States would be over 65% of the total, the "prosecute" figure should be higher, especially if 15% of the Republicans polled also favor prosecuting the corrupt buffoon. Should be at least 57%, which is the median number of all three groups. So the poll has clearly "over-polled" Republicans and under-polled Democrats.

And you're telling me that 10% of the voters who think he should be prosecuted would still vote for him? Bunk.

I'm also not buying this theme that the more indictments pile on, the more support he gets. His fundraising is really drying up, at least, if what gets reported is accurate. Yes, he's got some hard core supporters who pitch in their $10 bucks every time he appeals to them, and that generates a couple of million, which is really nothing in politics these days. The President has amassed a war chest without making a lot of noise, and if the news media was interested in finding out, much of what he's raised has also been on the news of Trump indictments. So that works both ways.

My best guess, which does have some professional expertise, is that if orange head makes it as the GOP nominee, something I think is at under 50-50 odds right now, it will be Biden at over 55% of the vote, and with Biden picking up 343 electoral votes. If, somehow, a couple of convictions come down before the election, and the GOP wakes up and gets rid of this drag, it will be a huge landslide for Biden.

[ProfessorGAC]

4. I Get Different Numbers

Last spring, Pew had a report showing 24% R, 28% D, & 48% I (or a declared 3rd party)
95% of 28 is 25.2; 15% of 24 is 3.6; 57% of 48 is 27.36. Those add up to 56.16. Pretty darned close to what they're suggesting.
One odd thing you may have noticed but didn't comment on, is the part about indictments not changing opinions of him. If somebody already loathed him, and already suspected he did the things in the indictment, of course it wouldn't make you think less of him. Zero is a hard floor.
Your last 2 paragraphs, I agree with completely.

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. Using the figures available (remember some will say neither yes nor no)

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us08162023_demos_usos65.pdf says for registered voters, the split is 28% Repub, 32% Dem, 29% Ind and 12% "Other/DK/NA". Without counting "other":

Prosecute: .95*32 + .57*29 + .12*28 = 50.29%
Don't prosecute: .05*32 + .37*29 + .85*28 = 36.13%

So that would need "other" to contribute 3.71% prosecute and 5.87% don't - or a 31%/49% split. Which could be true.

[anciano]

3. Interesting numbers indeed .....

but it's still 15 months until the election, and in politics that can be an eternity. We shall see ....