Earth entering 'uncharted territory' as heat records quickly shatter

[dalton99a]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/07/06/earth-record-heat-climate-extremes
https://archive.ph/890FP

Earth entering ‘uncharted territory’ as heat records quickly shatter
Scientists say to brace for more extreme weather and probably a record-warm 2023 amid unprecedented temperatures
By Scott Dance
July 6, 2023 at 4:00 a.m. EDT

...

New precedents have been set in recent weeks and months, surprising some scientists with their swift evolution: Historically warm oceans, with North Atlantic temperatures already nearing their typical annual peak; unparalleled low sea ice levels around Antarctica, where global warming impacts had, until now, been slower to appear; and the planet experiencing its warmest June ever charted, according to new data.

“We have never seen anything like this before,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. He said any number of charts and graphs on Earth’s climate are showing, quite literally, that “we are in uncharted territory.”

It is no shock that global warming is accelerating — scientists were anticipating that would come with the onset of El Niño, the infamous climate pattern that reemerged last month. It is known for unleashing surges of heat and moisture that trigger extreme floods and storms in some places, and droughts and fires in others.

But the hot conditions are developing too quickly, and across more of the planet, to be explained solely by El Niño. Records are falling around the globe many months ahead of the El Niño’s peak impact, which typically hits in December and sends global temperatures soaring for months to follow.

It’s not just that records are being broken — but the massive margins with which conditions are surpassing previous extremes, scientists note. In parts of the North Atlantic, temperatures are running as high as 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal, the warmest observed there in more than 170 years. The warm waters helped northwestern Europe, including the United Kingdom, clinch its warmest June on record.

...

[bucolic_frolic]

1. War and forest fires burn a lot of fuel.

Just like the pandemic cleared the skies for a year or two.

[Kaleva]

2. Greenhouse gases are invisible to the naked eye

[dalton99a]

24. +1. During the pandemic, carbon dioxide increased at the same rate despite lower emissions

https://magazine.caltech.edu/post/atmospheric-co2-covid-pandemic

A Climate Conundrum: Why Didn’t Atmospheric CO2 Fall During the Pandemic?

...

“During previous socioeconomic disruptions, like the 1973 oil shortage, you could immediately see a change in the growth rate of CO2,” says David Schimel, head of JPL’s carbon group and a co-author of the study. “We all expected to see it this time, too.”

The study also examined atmospheric nitrogen oxide (NOx) levels. In the presence of sunlight, nitrogen oxides can react with other atmospheric compounds to create ozone, a gas that is a danger to human, animal, and plant health. Although the study found that COVID-related drops in nitrogen oxides led to a reduction in ozone in most places around the world, its satellite measurements uncovered a less positive effect of limiting NOx. Nitrogen oxides react to form a short-lived molecule called the hydroxyl radical, which plays an important role in breaking down long-lived gases in the atmosphere. By reducing NOx emissions—as beneficial as that was in cleaning up air pollution—the pandemic also limited the atmosphere’s ability to cleanse itself of another important greenhouse gas: methane.

Molecule for molecule, methane is far more effective than carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere. Estimates of how much methane emissions dropped during the pandemic are uncertain, but one study calculated the reduction at 10 percent. However, as with carbon dioxide, the drop in emissions did not decrease the concentration of methane in the atmosphere. Instead, methane grew 0.3 percent faster in the past year than in the previous four—a faster rate than at any other time in the last decade. With less NOx there was less hydroxyl radical to scrub methane away.

Notably, emissions returned to near pre-pandemic levels by the latter part of 2020, despite reduced activity in many sectors of the economy.

“This suggests that reducing activity in these industrial and residential sectors is not practical in the short term” as a means of cutting emissions, the study noted. “Reducing these sectors’ emissions permanently will require their transition to low-carbon-emitting technology.”

[Kaleva]

26. Some greenhouse gases can remain in the atmosphere for generations

A temporary decrease in emissions won't translate to a reduction in the atmosphere as there will still be greenhouse gases added to what's already there .

[femmedem]

7. Not sure I understand your point. Are you saying that the heat is temporary and due to burned fuel?

If you are, I have to disagree. Yes, there was a drop in some particulate matters and nitrogen dioxide during the worst of the pandemic. But this is entirely different: the CO2 causing global warming will take centuries to dissipate. The CO2 released by the massive forest fires will take centuries to dissipate. The methane released by melting permafrost and the underwater blasts of the Nordstrom pipeline will dissipate more quickly, but methane is 80x more potent than CO2 as a greenhouse gas for the first twenty years after its release.

[bucolic_frolic]

17. Something is causing this sudden spike. War and fires make a lot of heat.

Is it a causal relationship? Remains to be seen.

[femmedem]

23. Ah, thanks.

I thought you meant that the resulting jump in temperature would be temporary since part of the cause may be temporary.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

20. bucolic is implying there's a been a giant 'belch' of CO2 and heat from war and rampant fires

Obviously we all know the trend is upwards, but the SPIKES we're presently seeing may be due in part to relatively recent CO2-dumping events.

Not sure I agree, but pretty sure that's what s/he meant.

This person is well-versed on the subject.

[femmedem]

22. Thanks. n/t

[Kaleva]

3. Many of us DUers will be facing severe hardships

Climate change is happening much faster then earlier predicted.

I'm going to have to pick up the pace with the efforts to prepare to adapt to the brave, new world that's coming.

[CrispyQ]

8. If I lived in the southwest I'd be looking to move now.

If I were younger, I'd worry about where I live. Water is going to be a huge issue. It always has been in this area.. We're thinking of fixing up our basement with the idea that summers will be spent there because of heat & possible power outages. The kids I see playing in the neighborhood, 5-10 years old, these kids are going to see things we can barely imagine.

[Kaleva]

19. Fortunately, I live in a region predicted to be a climate change refuge

It would be extremely hard, maybe impossible, to convince my wife and the stepchildren with their kids to relocate.

[hunter]

37. At lower elevations, say Phoenix greater urban complex, water is going to flow uphill to money...

... desalinated water from the sea if that must be.

Upstream the Colorado River Basin people may just be shit out of luck.

It'll all depend upon the Anthropocene Great Extinction Event weather.

[CrispyQ]

4. Humanity's end will be more Mad Max than StarTrek.

The rich men, who have called the shots for most of our history, still think they deserve to be in charge. And since they got to set up the system, they rigged the rules in their favor & they have no morals or shame or concern for anyone but themselves & money & power. The very worst of humanity has the whole planet in their grip & I fear the public attitude now is, get while the gettin's still good.

People can deny all they want but we all see what's coming.

[Kaleva]

6. And yet, people don't seem to be making preparations.

There is no noticeable increase in folks moving out of areas predicted to be hard hit to regions predicted to be more habitable.

[CrispyQ]

12. Funny. I was just responding to you about the same.

We are going to see global migration like never before! Billions & billions of people displaced. Maybe if Carl Sagan were alive to say it people would listen? IDK what it's going to take cuz our future is staring us in the face & we're doing nothing.

[Kaleva]

15. IMHO, denial is part of being human. Plus,people don't like change.

[dalton99a]

9. +1. Get roasted where you are, or go to Canada and get smoked

[CrispyQ]

13. I always thought greed was the worst of the 7 deadly sins,

but it's looking like pride is what will do humanity in. Pride in our superior intelligence. Confidence that our big brains will always find a solution just cuz we've made it this far, LOL, a blip, compared to how long the dinosaurs were here. And they at least didn't destroy themselves.

[dalton99a]

14. +1

[ancianita]

31. Yep.

And the rich men who burned up this ship of a planet think they'll be safe on the jack staff of its bow, but they will go down with the rest of us.

[CrispyQ]

32. It's the only thing that explains the complete lack of action.

They think their money & power will save them. Fools.

[ancianita]

34. Agree. Human inertia at their level will kill humanity more than anything humanity itself tries to

do to mitigate the heating effects of their CO2 emissions profits.

If they were to miraculously stop everything they do today, they'd still have to contend with the inertia of autocratic governments their central bankers.

No amount of the 300 trillion they command might be enough to stop what's coming, but we'll never know because they're not inclined.

If they could directly give their 300 trillion to humanity, could humanity's governments coordinate a planet wide stoppage of CO2 emissions? Only by listening to the right scientists, imo. Even our best, like Biden, can make mistakes about how to coordinate stopping CO2 emissions. If you haven't read this thread, I recommend starting at #6, reading from there, and just looking at the facts, not any of the ad hominem talk.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218065872#post6

[hunter]

38. I still have some hope they'll be shocked into action when Mother Nature rejects their Visa cards...

... and forcibly removes them from her restaurant wielding her big aluminum softball bat.

I've witnessed these sorts of things.

[Elessar Zappa]

5. And next year will break more records.

And the year after that and the year after that etc. Even if we cut all fossil fuels right now, we’ll still have a lot of problems. That’s not to say we shouldn’t try though. Maybe we can keep it under 3 degrees Celsius if every country gets their shit together and work to contain this disaster.

[Kaleva]

10. Especially since China produces more greenhouse gases then ...

all the other industrialized nations combined, including the US. And they are putting more coal fired power plants in operation every year

[Elessar Zappa]

11. Yup.

Besides trying to mitigate this disaster, it’ll probably be best if we focus on adaptation to the coming reality.

[Kaleva]

16. I agree with you that the focus ought to be on adapting

[Delphinus]

44. Yes.

We are going to have to live with the consequences and figuring out how would be wise.

[milestogo]

18. Switching to a plant based diet is within everyone's control

And it reduces the negative impact of factory farming on the environment.

[Kaleva]

25. But to get everyone on the planet to do so is a high hurdle

Americans alone doing so won't be effective.

[milestogo]

28. That's just an excuse.

[Kaleva]

29. Let us know when you get that done

Or will you post an excuse about why you failed?

[milestogo]

30. I haven't eaten meat since 2010.

No suggestion, no action solves everything. The point is to do something instead of doing nothing.

[Kaleva]

36. I'm not being sbarky

Kudos to you for making an effort. I just think it's impossible to convince hundreds of millions around the world to follow your example. It would help mitigate climate change but I very much doubt it can be accomplished.

As for me, I'm concentrating on preparing to adapt to what's coming. I spend anywhere from a few minutes thinking about what I need to do to working for hours on my various projects each day.

[GenXer47]

21. it only takes 6000 miles of driving a gas-powered car to birth one new carbon baby

The Paris Agreement set the global per capita carbon footprint at 2 metric tons of CO2 per person per year, if we are to keep below 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels by 2030.
Every 6000 miles in an average, non-electric vehicle produces that amount.
And that's just an "empty" car - forget about the people inside it and what they are doing.
It's easy to say "the planet's overpopulated" but every time the odometer registers another 6000 miles, you're essentially giving birth.
That's one more baby a young couple can't have.
Think of it this way next time you fill up the tank.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

27. Lol, it's not even close to essentially giving birth

Where did you read that claptrap?

I mean, when you have a child it's likely going to drive hundreds of thousands of miles in their lives, just for starters. Then there's the fact that's another person who might also have children

There's nothing better a person can do for the climate than having no children.

And it's not even CLOSE, esp. not in the First World.

[LudwigPastorius]

33. Monday was the hottest day in 125,000 years, but that record was broken...

the very next day (and the day after).

Earth reaches hottest day ever recorded 3 days in a row

[former9thward]

39. Where is that coming from?

Nothing at your link mentions 125,000 years. It is the hottest since 1979 when they started keeping records.

[LudwigPastorius]

40. Third paragraph of the OP's WashPo article.

[Donkees]

41. There is another link within the opening post link:

''And then, on Monday, came Earth’s hottest day in at least 125,000 years.''

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/05/hottest-day-ever-recorded/


Instrument-based global temperature records go back to the mid-19th century, but for temperatures before that, scientists are dependent on proxy data captured through evidence left in tree rings and ice cores. “These data tell us that it hasn’t been this warm since at least 125,000 years ago, which was the previous interglacial,” Ceppi said, referring to a period of unusual warmth between two ice ages.

[former9thward]

42. If you follow links to links to links you finally get to this footnote.

A.2.2 Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2000
years (high confidence). Temperatures during the most recent decade (2011–2020) exceed those of the most recent
multi-century warm period, around 6500 years ago13 [0.2°C to 1°C relative to 1850–1900] (medium confidence). Prior
to that, the next most recent warm period was about 125,000 years ago, when the multi-century temperature [0.5°C to
1.5°C relative to 1850–1900] overlaps the observations of the most recent decade (medium confidence).
{2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 2.1, Cross-Section Box TS.1} (Figure SPM.1)

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf

This claim is rated "medium confidence" which is the lowest confidence level they have for these. Its a guess.

[LudwigPastorius]

43. "Its (sic) a guess."

I'll inform the world's paleoclimatologists that they're just making shit up.

[former9thward]

45. Go ahead.

They will tell you its "medium confidence".

[Johonny]

35. It turns out James Inhofe was wrong

Who could have predict snowballs in winter didn't correlate with global climate patterns.