Democrats' State-Level Comeback Hits Its Limits

[RandySF]

But as the party continues a long slog back from its 2010 wipeout ― when Republicans jumped from 9 trifectas to 22 in a single night and gained control of a redistricting process enabling them to lock Democrats out of power in states across the country ― the chances for further progress are shrinking.

“We have to be realistic,” said Mallory McMorrow, the Michigan state senator whose viral speech defending gay and transgender rights helped raise millions to power Democrats’ eventual victory in the state’s legislative elections last fall. “People asked me how it feels for everything to change overnight. But it wasn’t overnight. There has been a persistence and a dedication to down-ballot races from Republicans that Democrats simply haven’t had.”

Recent weeks have shown the promise and peril of the comeback so far. Victories in Wisconsin, and Michigan’s moves to repeal an abortion ban and right-to-work legislation, have been offset by the Wisconsin GOP’s pick up of a state Senate supermajority and the defection by a Democratic state legislator in North Carolina, both of which illustrated how stop-start the party’s progress is, and how fragile its gains can be. And the expulsion of two Democrats from the Tennessee House of Representatives shows how helpless the party remains in some states more than a decade after the 2010 wipeout.

Republicans now have supermajorities in 20 states, having picked up veto-proof majorities in three states with Democratic governors since the 2022 midterms: Wisconsin, where the GOP won a special election the same day as Protasiewicz’s victory, and in North Carolina and Louisiana, where Democratic legislators switched parties.

Many states where the party is at its weakest are in the South, with some of the largest Black populations in the country, giving the party little power to defend its most loyal voting bloc. Of the 10 states with the largest Black population share, seven have GOP governors, seven have GOP legislative supermajorities and six have both.




https://www.huffpost.com/entry/democrats-state-level-comeback-hits-its-limits_n_6444373fe4b03c1b88c76342

[DarthDem]

1. Enh

I don't think our prospects are limited at all. In fact, states like Kansas and Alaska are probably going to start bluing sooner than pessimists expect. Additionally, it's clear that McMorrow was answering a different question that the article's headline suggests. Finally, of course the Wisconsin Supreme Court win jeopardizes that Gooper supermajority on a pretty immediate basis.

[maxrandb]

2. "answering a different question than the article's headline suggests"

Yes, this is just one of the thousands of stories each day that paint Retrumplican "strength" and "victory" as inevitable, or pre-ordained.

If you ever wonder how Retrumplicans take positions that 70-80% of Americans don't support, it's partly because the media must always project Retrumplicans as "winners"

[DarthDem]

3. Fully Agree

Good call.

[Sky Jewels]

4. Abortion is not going away.

And neither are pro-choice voters. And neither are Gen Z voters. In fact, there are more of them every day. And, on the other end, many conservative voters die off. And Millennials are not moving rightward as they age. So, I don't think the "comeback" has hit its limits.