4 point shift to the Democrats in a week

[Qutzupalotl]

Link to tweet

Generic Congressional Ballot:

Democrats 47% (+5)
Republicans 42%

.@MorningConsult/@Politico, 2,005 RV, 10/21-23
https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/10/25151347/2210148_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2_10-26-22_SH.pdf

[SheltieLover]

1. Likely quite an underestimate!

Thx for sharing!

[Wounded Bear]

2. Hopefully. Normally, IIRC, a 5-6% difference is usually a landslide...

[SheltieLover]

24. Excellent! 👏👏👏👏

[wnylib]

21. I sure hope so. It's a "generic" figure.

Hope it holds true in specific individual races.

I want so much to hold onto both houses of Congress and gain in the Senate, but don't want to set myself up for disappointment. So, I am holding onto cautious optimism. We could accomplish so much by holding the House and having a solidly Democratic Senate.

[SheltieLover]

23. I'm with you!

[Wounded Bear]

28. Your keyboard to god's monitor...nt

[FSogol]

3. GOTV, DU.

[pstokely]

4. but they're still doomed based on conventional wisdom and history according to the liberal NY Times

[Aviation Pro]

17. Liberal should be in quotes

.....

[Sky Jewels]

34. It's true! They talked to old white people in rural diners and they all agreed.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

5. We need more positive news around here as it gets closer to Election Day.

I know the races for US House and Senate are getting tighter, and people like Andrea Mitchell and Steve Kornacki are playing Debbie Downers saying Republicans are better at messaging fear.

[getagrip_already]

8. we need people to not be complacent as well......

As bad as it can be for voters to believe they can't win, it is just as bad for them to think they can't lose.

Gotta give them a reason to show up and be counted - no "extra" votes will be a waste of time this election.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

14. Right on...

Already voted early. Voted Democrat all the way.

[calimary]

27. Damn right.

[Qutzupalotl]

6. Note that this is registered voters rather than likely voters.

The fact that we're seeing RV polls this late in the cycle indicates that pollsters know their models of likely voters are way off this time. I think people are coming out of the woodwork to vote against the enforced pregnancy advocates.

[getagrip_already]

10. we just don't know who the likely voters are.....

People who say they will vote, often don't.

Just get out the vote. Don't focus on polls.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

7. Tell somebody -- get 'em to vote

[CaptainTruth]

16. One of the most accurate political cartoons I've seen in a long time.

That basically sums it up.

[GreenWave]

9. Oh they can't fool me, I'm sticking with the Blue til the day I die.

With apologies to Woody Guthrie's Union Maid

[uponit7771]

11. THIS 👉🏾👉🏾** "margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points." *********

[peggysue2]

12. Well, that certainly doesn't match the current shrieking

Strange, strange indeed.

[bullimiami]

13. I trust no poll except is very general terms.

All this skewing left and right I attribute to methodology and sample.

I think polling has been broken both by technological changes and deliberate distortion by some polling outfits.

What was once nearly a science is now half guesses and opinion.

Get out and vote. The only poll that counts is the count.

[awesomerwb1]

15. So confused.

A few threads on here with articles from the "experts" predicting doom for the Dems, then we have threads like this with the opposite.

I don't know nothin'

[Disaffected]

19. Who does?

As someone once said, poles are only good for flags, wires and dogs.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

20. Here's how to handle it ...

[qazplm135]

32. Someone will be right and someone will be wrong

but it's definitely educated guessing this time around.

We have a lot of different factors push pulling...inflation, perceived crime and general economic news v election and democracy issues, abortion rights, and student loan debt.

Could be a blue wave, a red wave, or a neutral election.

Only thing we can do is GOTV as much as possible.

[gab13by13]

18. I have been consistent

I do not believe any polls; I ignore all of them.

[lees1975]

22. Here's what I don't get...

Why is Morning Consult, along with several other polls that survey several thousand registered voters, and comes up with these numbers, not cited on MSNBC, which uses their internal polling with a few hundred responses and is throwing panic into Democrats over this "narrowing" of the margin? Are they trying to motivate Democrats to go to the polls and vote? There was another one last night from Steve Kornacki showing Maggie Hassan just a couple of points up.

Or is this all just some kind of media game to get their ratings up?

And what's happening at DNC headquarters. I get all these emails from Democrats saying this or that Republican took out 2 million in ads against them and they need money, but then I hear Tim Ryan this morning talk about having over 300,000 small contributors and blowing Vance out of the water with ads everywhere.

[brooklynite]

25. Reminder:a national generic ballot.

[mountain grammy]

26. I found peace by giving up hope

That said. I’ve knocked on a few doors and people seem genuinely disturbed by republicans. Hope May live another day.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

29. That completely ignores gerrymandered districts.

It's going to be very close from what the numbers look like by districts.

[Captain Zero]

30. better to be over 45 than under with a week to go

the old rule used to be if a candidate is under 45 going into the last week. he is not going to win.

[Historic NY]

31. Forget the damn polls they are meaningless, the only thing thats not is your vote

vote like your life depends on it, it does.

[Cha]

33. TY & of course Run like the Dems

are 5 points behind!