BTRTN 2020 Election Snapshot: The Short Answer - Can the Democrats Win a Trifecta?
Two weeks out from Election Day, Born To Run The Numbers posts its up-to-the-minute snapshot, focusing on the question on everyone's mind... can the Democrats win the "trifecta:" the White House, the Senate, and the House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/10/btrtn-2020-election-snapshot-short_20.html
Excerpts: "The short answer: With two weeks to go, the Democrats continue to have a very good chance of pulling off the ultimate 'trifecta' – Joe Biden winning the presidency, the Democrats flipping the Senate, and also maintaining control of the House...
"The Presidency: Joe Biden’s national lead has grown to +9 points in the month of October. Collectively he is ahead in the swing state polls as well, on average by +4 points in that same time span. There have been a whopping 83 swing state polls in October thus far, and Biden has led in 67 of them, Trump has been ahead in only 10, and there have been 6 ties. Biden is winning by +5 points or more in states (and districts) with enough electoral votes, 290, to give him the presidency. And while the other states are all “toss ups,” he is modestly ahead in the polls in all of them except Texas, where he is still shockingly competitive. But he does not need to win any of the toss-ups to win the election...
"The Senate. The Democrats remain in a strong position to flip the Senate. They need a net of +3 flipped seats to get to 50, which would be enough to gain control, assuming a Biden win, with VP Kamala Harris in the tie-breaking chair.The clearest path to the required “+3” is to flip Arizona, Colorado and any two of Iowa, North Carolina and Maine..
"The House. The generic ballot, the key variable in our BTRTN House Prediction model, has the Dems up on average by nearly 8 points. If the Democrats maintain this margin through Election Day, they would be expected to flip 18 more seats, give or take a few, according to our model, to get to a whopping 251 to 187 advantage."
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...give us that problem to solve! 